Summer 2014 Prospect Ranking Poll Rd18

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Now we're down to guys who are all very unlikely to ever be NHL regulars.

At this point, my sole criteria becomes: who is actually going to play in the show?

I'm going with Gilmour as the least-long of the long shots.

Kanzig has the most upside, but is still very much a long shot.

McDonald? Predicting that a teenage goalie will be an NHLer? Hey, If you'll buy that, I've got some excellent timeshare investment opportunities for you.

Smith is a runner too, but I'm going to stick with Gilmour. Vanilla defenceman who is good and improving. Culkin is probably a valid choice too.

[Ozy_Flame]

MacDonald gets the vote. It's time we start respecting our 2nd rounders at the 18th position.

What a problem to have.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

If I recall correctly, Burke commented that the reason they took McDonald was basically that (paraphrasing) "You have to take a goalie every now and then just to keep your hand in, and next year looks like a good draft so we probably won't be picking a goalie next year."

[Imported_Aussie]

Tough call between Smith and McDonald for me, but going for Smith as his upside, should he put it all together, is a very unique player.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

It's going to be very interesting to see where McDonald and Smith land in next years rankings, my guess would be both rise to just outside the top 10. Pretty crazy to have guys like these vying with players like Kanzig and Culkin for a spots in the top 20.

[RyZ]

I'm going

Smith
MacDonald
Kanzig

[FlamesAddiction]

Torn between McDonald and Kanzig, but went with Kanzig.

[Nehkara]

I'm taking the other half of the Kulak/Culkin duo.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

rinse and repeat:
Goalies are tough to assess, but something to be said about being the first goalie drafted in a draft.

macdonald for me.

The reason that MacDonald is not getting much love as a prospect is that historically he has very little chance of making it to the NHL after 4-5 years of development.

Of the 6 goalies picked in the first 2 rounds of 2009 and 2010 there is only one that has come close to meeting expectations. The other 5 you could pick up for a 3rd or 4th round pick or a Prospect that you drafted well after these goalies were picked.

Al Montoya a former #6 overall, after a solid year in Winnipeg (13-8-3, 2.30, .920 sv %) , was signed to a 2 year deal a 1M/season as a UFA.

2010 draft
Top goalies picked in the top 2 rounds have a combined total of 3 NHL games played 4 complete seasons after they were drafted.

#11 Jack Campbell
#17 Mark Vistenten
#49 Calvin Pickard
#58 Kent Simpson

Goalie with most NHL games out of this draft is Frederik Andersen who was drafted #187 by Carolina. Unable to come to terms with the Hurricanes, Andersen was selected in the third round of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft (87th overall) by the Anaheim Ducks.

Other goalies from the 2010 draft with more than 10 NHL games:
#112 Philipp Grubauer 19 games
#141 Petr Mrazek 11 games

Going back a year…. 5 seasons after being drafted, 2009 draft:

#31 Mikko Koskinen 4 nhl games
#46 Robin Lehner 61 nhl (winner winner chicken dinner) …

the goalie with the 2nd most NHL games from the 2009 draft #161 Darcy Kuemper with 36

[kehatch]

Smith is the clear pick for me here. I love his potential. MacDonald isn't a bad pick either.

[Street Pharmacist]

Mattson getting no love?

[codynw]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The reason that MacDonald is not getting much love as a prospect is that historically he has very little chance of making it to the NHL after 4-5 years of development.

Of the 6 goalies picked in the first 2 rounds of 2009 and 2010 there is only one that has come close to meeting expectations. The other 5 you could pick up for a 3rd or 4th round pick or a Prospect that you drafted well after these goalies were picked.

Al Montoya a former #6 overall, after a solid year in Winnipeg (13-8-3, 2.30, .920 sv %) , was signed to a 2 year deal a 1M/season as a UFA.

2010 draft
Top goalies picked in the top 2 rounds have a combined total of 3 NHL games played 4 complete seasons after they were drafted.

#11 Jack Campbell
#17 Mark Vistenten
#49 Calvin Pickard
#58 Kent Simpson

Goalie with most NHL games out of this draft is Frederik Andersen who was drafted #187 by Carolina. Unable to come to terms with the Hurricanes, Andersen was selected in the third round of the 2012 NHL Entry Draft (87th overall) by the Anaheim Ducks.

Other goalies from the 2010 draft with more than 10 NHL games:
#112 Philipp Grubauer 19 games
#141 Petr Mrazek 11 games

Going back a year…. 5 seasons after being drafted, 2009 draft:

#31 Mikko Koskinen 4 nhl games
#46 Robin Lehner 61 nhl (winner winner chicken dinner) …

the goalie with the 2nd most NHL games from the 2009 draft #161 Darcy Kuemper with 36

Goalies take longer to develop though. You'd have to go back to 2008 or earlier to get a good idea of how they turned out. Most goalies don't become NHL regulars until they're about 24 years old.

[Rick M.]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Torn between McDonald and Kanzig, but went with Kanzig.

I picked McDonald but Kanzig is intriguing for sure. I'm just not sure he has enough quickness/agility to be an NHL shutdown guy.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Mattson getting no love?

He was a late round pick, and because nobody here has watched him play, nobody has grounds to rate him higher that.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by codynw

Goalies take longer to develop though. You'd have to go back to 2008 or earlier to get a good idea of how they turned out. Most goalies don't become NHL regulars until they're about 24 years old.

That's kind of his point. If he's at least 6 years away, that makes him less valuable as a prospect today. And that doesn't even consider the higher risk that goalies face.

They are less likely to make it, and will take longer to do so. For me, that means that it's hard to rank an 18 year old goalie very high - even if he was the best goalie in the draft.

[BlackWallStreet]

Kanzig>mcdonalds

[Neeper]

Wolf! The guy is a beast and will play in the show this year. I can't wait to see him smash some Oilers and Canucks.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Mattson getting no love?

To be fair, he was just picked in the 6 round. I like him though, I just have half of a dozen players still left I like more.

I have him ahead of Kanzig though. But that is probably just me.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by BACKCHECK!!!

He was a late round pick, and because nobody here has watched him play, nobody has grounds to rate him higher that.

Nobody here has watched Wolf, Smith or McDonald either (at most only a couple people here have). I just thought that the opinion of him was quite high after we drafted him. Seems like a diamond in the rough to me

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by kehatch

To be fair, he was just picked in the 6 round. I like him though, I just have half of a dozen players still left I like more.

I have him ahead of Kanzig though. But that is probably just me.

Me too. I don't think Kanzig makes it anywhere