Flames prospects NHLE chart

[edslunch]

You should be able to reformat your chart to look like this (note: my data is bogus). This it the best presentation I could come up with - it shows progression from bottom to top for each player

Spoiler!

[Cali Panthers Fan]

One more suggestion, compare defensemen to defensemen and forwards to forwards and have 2 charts. At least there would be a more accurate chart comparison.

[Coach]

Lol ahhh Gaudreau.

[Bandwagon Surfer]

Poirier is tracking Gaudreau pretty well. Through the power of extrapolation his improvement this year is guaranteed to be same.

[CSharp]

This chart makes no sense unless it has a name: WTF-E Chart! If you're color blind, all the lines look like chicken scratches.

[united]

I agree with those saying to split it into two charts: One for defencemen and one for forwards.

Also, whose NHLE conversions did you use? Desjardin's have been around the longest, but I think Vollman's recent revisions are more accurate.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by united

I agree with those saying to split it into two charts: One for defencemen and one for forwards.

Also, whose NHLE conversions did you use? Desjardin's have been around the longest, but I think Vollman's recent revisions are more accurate.

Desjardin's.

Also, I realized that the chart is hard to read before I posted it, but it was late so I didn't want to keep working on it.

I'll likely do the defenseman-forward split and maybe post the spreadsheet at some point for the rest of you who might want to play with it.

Consider it a first draft - but one that I wanted to get out quickly such as to inform the prospect polls.

[united]

If you're interested in Vollman's in future works, here they are:

Spoiler!

[SebC]

Originally Posted by united

If you're interested in Vollman's in future works, here they are:

Spoiler!

It would be pretty easy to update the chart since I'm using a lookup formula. I'd have to re-do some of the players stats since I was using a single factor (0.41) for NCAA. Probably won't have time for an update today, but maybe tomorrow.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by SebC

Consider it a first draft - but one that I wanted to get out quickly such as to inform the prospect polls.

I'd imagine it won't affect the polls much, if at all.

I hope to god no one is forming an opinion on a player based on NHL-E.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by SebC

Consider it a first draft - but one that I wanted to get out quickly such as to inform the prospect polls.

If you're going to revise it, couple of quick suggestions you may find helpful for the next round.

1) Assign everyone a number or a letter instead of shapes. When you have this many data points, it's much easier for a reader to make the connection from the legend to the chart.

2) Color coding is usually great...but when you have this many players, it starts to lose it's power since there are many colors that are similar. It's not doing you many favors from an organization standpoint, so consider having the color tell a different story. Ie, color code them according to position, or color code them according to draft year, or according to biggest +/- changes in NHLE.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

I'd imagine it won't affect the polls much, if at all.

I hope to god no one is forming an opinion on a player based on NHL-E.

It shows good trends and at least gives some comparable between AHL and WHL numbers. A backup to the eye test, or at least a method of looking at where a guy who was just drafted fits compared to where a guys with a few years development is.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by GGG

It shows good trends and at least gives some comparable between AHL and WHL numbers. A backup to the eye test, or at least a method of looking at where a guy who was just drafted fits compared to where a guys with a few years development is.

Oh agreed. Was speaking more to the guys who seem to dive in head first into this stat (or any advanced stat) without ever seeing a player. Can come across as a little foolish.

[AcGold]

That's amazing because of Johnny and how Arnold's progression mirrors Johnnys indicating that he helps make those who play with him better.

[united]

Some other things to keep in mind:
NHLE tends to overrate players with elite linemates. E.g., Gagner (P. Kane)
NHLE tends to overrate players who play big powerplay minutes and get most of their points that way. E.g., Schremp
NHLE tends to underrate elite two-way forwards. E.g., Bergeron
NHLE tends to underrate defencemen who are solid at both ends. E.g., Pietrangelo

I don't have a link, but if I remember correctly NHLE is accurate +/- 18% the vast majority of the time. So if a player has an NHLE of 30, don't take that as he would get exactly 30 points, it means he would probably get between 25 and 35 points. The number is just a baseline based on the historical averages.

It's another tool to add to your toolbox of evaluation. You can take the number and adjust for player type, teammates, and usage based on what you've seen and/or read, and compare that with your own opinion and see if there is any similarities or extreme differences. Or you can use it as a quick reference of players you've never watched, knowing the above inaccuracies apply.

I couldn't find the r value either, but here's graph floating around showing there is a relationship. In case you need a graph to tell you players who score more in lesser leagues will probably score more in the NHL.

Spoiler!

[SebC]

Updated the OP with the charts for forwards and defensemen.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by neo45

Maybe filter by draft year to make it more readable? Sorry to nitpick, nice work

I know it's busy, but that would kind of defeat the point.

[MarkGio]

I like it!

Wolf is an interesting guy, comparably. I'm also curious why Knight is on the decline? Sure, he's not the highly touted Baker top 10 finalist he once was, but he put up decent numbers in his first pro year. I wonder where Coda would fall since he put up decent numbers?

It requires context. Obviously this doesn't accurately reflect a guy like Seiloff.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

I'm also curious why Knight is on the decline?

Most of them have a pretty significant drop between their final year of junior/college and their first year in the AHL. Reinhart and Jooris have similar drops as well.

I wouldn't be overly concerned with that. Everything has to be looked at in context.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by getbak

Most of them have a pretty significant drop between their final year of junior/college and their first year in the AHL. Reinhart and Jooris have similar drops as well.

Yeah. Which is a bit odd when you think about what NHL-equivalent scoring is.