Johnny Gaudreau vs These "prospect" websites

[strombad]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

I'm not saying that we're gonna botch Gaudreau's development. I'm just saying that to an outside observer all the Pardys, Pelechs and Boyds look understandably bad.

I hardly think a guy like Pardy who was a 6th round pick and now plays pretty consistent minutes in the NHL makes us look bad.

The Flames have had some gaffes, but guys like Brodie, Bouma, Backlund, and Ortio make us look a lot better than guys like Chucko or Nemisz make us look bad.

Our drafting and development reputation is most certainly in the midst of a rise, so there's little-to-no chance it would factor in anyone's prediction of Gaudreau's chances.

[lvsteven]

Great stuff. Thanks guys.
I'm real excited to be a flames fan.

They had such a good Second half.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by trublmaker

you made it sound like a prospect is ranked by who drafts them

If you were charged with forecasting the success of a prospect, who they were drafted by would have to be a factor, would it not? You don't think if you were a writer, you would temper your expectations of a player in say...the Oilers system?

[trublmaker]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

If you were charged with forecasting the success of a prospect, who they were drafted by would have to be a factor, would it not? You don't think if you were a writer, you would temper your expectations of a player in say...the Oilers system?

not at all, Id judge them on what they've done so far never having played yet in the NHL or the team that drafted them

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by OutOfTheCube

Winning the Hobey Baker really isn't an indication of anything -- look up previous winners. Very few have gone on to have any impact in the NHL, let alone be stars.

Aren't Ryan Miller and Paul Kariya the only other players in the last 25 years to win the Hobey Baker at age 20 or under?

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Aren't Ryan Miller and Paul Kariya the only other players in the last 25 years to win the Hobey Baker at age 20 or under?

I believe you're right.

Hobey Baker by itself doesn't prove anything. Winning at 20 much more impressive. Winning at 20 after being runner up at 19 more impressive. That plus being a WJC all-star even more impressive. Add championships and all-stars at every level and it adds up to a pretty compelling resume that not many NCAA players in history could touch.

It all points to him being the real deal....here's hoping!

[edslunch]

What gets me excited is he has consistently been among the very best at every single level he's played, including WJC against the best players in the world at his age group. Think about the skill and determination that takes, especially for a smaller, younger player. And not just succeeding, he's flat out dominating. The NHL will be a huge challenge but he has simply destroyed every previous challenge.

[Roof-Daddy]

He won the Hobey at 20, and really should have won it at 19 too.

In fact, in his Freshman season he got off to a so-so start, then after being left off the US WJ team he went on a tear for the rest of his Freshman year.

Basically took him half a season at 18 years old to figure out the NCAA, and since then has been probably the best college player for the last 2.5 years.

All that while being tremendously tiny, and anywhere from 2-5 years younger than most of his competition.

This kid is the real deal IMO.

I want to temper expectations, but I really have a hard time doing that because of what he's done for so long now.

I'm just glad that the time to find out has finally arrived, and we don't have to speculate what he might become while he works.......no, dominates his way through another college season.

[jaydub74]

Interesting that Hockey Futures lists him as a C based on size. Was Patrick Kane not of similar size and stature during his draft year? Funny how one guys goes 1st overall, the other slips to the 3rd round.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by jaydub74

Interesting that Hockey Futures lists him as a C based on size. Was Patrick Kane not of similar size and stature during his draft year? Funny how one guys goes 1st overall, the other slips to the 3rd round.

Well, Patrick Kane is Patrick Kane. Gaudreau still has a ways to go before he proves he's even half the NHL player Kane is.

That out of the way... Kane was drafted 1st overall after scoring over a goal a game and over two points per game, in the OHL. Gaudreau was drafted out of the USHL, there was still questions whether he could play in College yet.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by jaydub74

Interesting that Hockey Futures lists him as a C based on size. Was Patrick Kane not of similar size and stature during his draft year? Funny how one guys goes 1st overall, the other slips to the 3rd round.

What exactly is HFs claim to be an authority on these things anyway?

I haven't been to that site in years, but isn't it pretty much just a fan site? At least when I used to visit it, it seemed like it was mostly just young fans (mostly Oiler fans at that) making rankings based on anecdotal information and highlight clips, and not real scouting by professionals.

[OutOfTheCube]

Mm, true, I wasn't factoring in the age.

That being said, half way through the season I wasn't on the Gaudreau bandwagon. But he kept it up the whole year and now I feel like he's the real deal -- Calgary could have something really special on their hands and a draft steal. It's just at this point, size is still an issue. It will be an issue until he can disprove it, there's just no getting around it.

[Mith]

Let's see how he plays in the NHL tonight. 1 game isn't really indicative, but it certainly won't hurt.

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by jaydub74

Interesting that Hockey Futures lists him as a C based on size. Was Patrick Kane not of similar size and stature during his draft year? Funny how one guys goes 1st overall, the other slips to the 3rd round.

In their respective draft years, Kane was 3 times the prospect Gaudreau was.

[stemit14]

Let them doubt him all they want... He's definitely used to it. He'll prove them all wrong.

[jaydub74]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

Hockey's Future gives him an 8.0 for talent, which means 1st line forward with all-star potential. The C is for risk of not meeting potential, which is fair as well. The comparables they list for an 8.0 prospect are Marleau, Richards, Spezza...if he turns out anything close to that, I'll be doing some heavy fist pumps.

I guess I'm just comparing JG to the talent level HF is giving him. They've stated he has an 8.0 talent level. I assume Kane had a similar rating at a similar size yet he went 1st overall.

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by jaydub74

I guess I'm just comparing JG to the talent level HF is giving him. They've stated he has an 8.0 talent level. I assume Kane had a similar rating at a similar size yet he went 1st overall.

You would be assuming wrong.
This is what they did in their draft years. If you want to talk about HF talent level ratings, Kane was likely a 9.5

Gaudreau - USHL - 60 GP - 36G - 36A - 72P

Kane - OHL - 58GP - 62G - 83A - 145P

Kane was on a completely different level as a prospect.

[Enoch Root]

I have no problem with their rating. I would rate him 8.5 C personally, but 8.0 C is more than reasonable.

You don't see many guys at A or B. With his size, C is right, IMO.

If he's 6'1" when drafted, he goes in the 1st round and gets rates accordingly.

[dissentowner]

Predicting how prospects will turn out is a fools game. That being said Gaudreau is the most skilled prospect I have seen since a young man named Crosby and another guy in the OHL named McDavid. If he can put on some muscle and stays strong on his skates this kid is a sure fire star. Just too much skill, hockey IQ not to.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by RyZ

You would be assuming wrong.
This is what they did in their draft years. If you want to talk about HF talent level ratings, Kane was likely a 9.5

Gaudreau - USHL - 60 GP - 36G - 36A - 72P

Kane - OHL - 58GP - 62G - 83A - 145P

Kane was on a completely different level as a prospect.

Kane was also playing on a better team against smaller guys in a totally different type of league. I watched Kane come up, I am a Knights season ticket holder so I see a bunch of OHL. Skill and hockey IQ wise I would say Gaudreau has a better toolbox than Kane did.