The Kids: Expectations vs. Reality

[nik-]

Originally Posted by ramizle

I believe that the demotion of Beartschi to the AHL is a better move for himself and the team in the long run. Letting Beartschi feel entitled to be in the NHL to me feels a lot like Oiler development. He will come around.

I'm not saying every benching was unwarranted, or that he didn't need to go down. I'm saying the first one was because he was playing just fine with Monahan and Hudler. It had nothing to do with entitlement, it was a curious decision.

[undercoverbrother]

Can we outlaw "The Kids" term?

[Goodlad]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Monahan and Bouma are NHLers IMO so I'm leaving them off. Ramage is not doing well in the AHL this year, healthy scratch recently. Given his age he's looking like more of a suspect than a prospect. I'd have Poirier higher. Ferland and Arnold deserve some consideration IMO. Here's my attempt

1. Gaudreau
2. Baertschi
3. Poirier
4. Granlund
5. Ortio
6. Jankowksi
7. Klimchuk
8. Gillies
9. Reinhart
10. Sieloff
11. Wotherspoon
12. Ferland
13. Knight
14. Arnold
15. Hanowsk

Using this list and going by Tinordi's suggestion to pick 9 that won't make it.

The bolded makes 8, then I think one of Gaudreau, Baertschi, or Granlund will fall to the wayside. I'd give them all about equal odds right now.

I picked Sieloff over Wotherspoon, although it could easily be the other way around. I think one will be a good bottom pairing defenseman, and gave the edge to Sieloff for his physical game, which I think NHL clubs will value in a 5/6 d-man.

I think one of Knight or Arnold will make it too. I would give the edge to Knight. He's got a little more size, had better NCAA numbers (except this season where the Gaudreau/Hayes/Arnold line really took off) and seems to be adjusting to the AHL the fastest of our college guys.

I also think one of Ortio/Gillies will at least make it to back-up level in the NHL. I'd give the edge to Ortio right now, as he seems to be a bit stronger mentally. I like Gillies size and skill, but he seemed to take a while to recover from a fairly mediocre showing in the WJC.

I think Poirier and Klimchuk both have really good odds to make the NHL, but at what level is yet to be seen. Fortunately they both have skillsets that can slot them pretty much anywhere in the lineup. Both are good skaters and defensively responsible, so could easily slot in as bottom-6 players if their scoring doesn't translate at an NHL level.

As others have already said there is a lot of good chances for depth players in our prospects, but not a lot of top tier talent there. All of our most skilled guys have question marks to their games. One or two could end up surprising, but it's definitely not something to bank on.

[belsarius]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The Reality is that I had no expectations for this year. I wasn't sure where this team would sit or how they'd play. At the end of the day, they're slightly higher then I thought they would be, but I've loved how they've played.

If year one of a rebuild is about establishing culture, then the Flames have accomplished that.

Now I always said that my expectations for next year are when reality kicks in. this team will be worse no matter what the effort level is. But the second year when you cast aside veterans and wrap what's left in a cocoon of Silk and wait a year for a butterfly to emerge can be tough. You need to keep the culture of had work that you established in the first year going. Because if you can't, well look a few hundred KM's up the road and you can see the price for having no culture.

We've been fortunate this year, whether through drafting or through fluke, the prospects in our pool for the most part have shown growth that I didn't think would happen.

We know that the kids can't run on the batteries that they're running on now, next year is going to test them, and half of the prospects that we're talking about now will probably fail.

But there's not much we can do.

Being a hockey fan is like dating a hot chick. You know that at some point she's either going to cheat, or clean out your bank or and pee on your comic collection and take your car, if you go in with low expectations the reality won't kick you in the nads.

I'd like to think that option three is the reason. A much better development system. One or two players coming from the farm and playing well could be a fluke but the Flames have been calling almost the entire Heat organzation up at one point or another and they have all been reasonably capable, with most filling roles higher than anticipated. This team feels like it is moving in the direction of a Boston or St Louis, everyone buying in and the team being successful not on individual skill but on team skill.

That being said of course we need more top end talent and next year will probably be the time for that but I really feel that the growth in our players and the culture that is now coming from the Flames locker room is a direct result of what's going on in Abbottsford. Will all of our trop 10 prospects pan out? Of course not. Will any of them put up points like Hall or Eberle? Maybe not. But the depth of the bottom half of the team looks very healthy and it has the mindset of a winning team, not individuals.

[tvp2003]

The question I ask -- is "x" player part of the solution (i.e. to become a playoff, potentially cup contending team)? And if so, where do they fit in?

Monahan - yes, should be a 1a/1b or #2 centre

Baertschi - not sure; may become a Hudler-type top 6 player (Jiri still has 2 years left on his contract so that is my time frame for him to develop into a NHLer)

Gaudreau and Jankowski - interesting because both are potential boom versus bust players. If one can be bonafide top six on a playoff team I think we should be happy. If both do it, we could be competing for a cup in a 4-5 years. If neither hit, that would suck both as a fan and as an organization

Granlund - is proving to be a legit NHL'er; I think top end he has #2 centre potential but more likely #3 with a strong two-way game; maybe move to wing? Similar position as Colborne right now.

Ortio - yes, looks like he could be a keeper (pun not intended) -- a servicable backup at least (similar to Ramo); will see over time if he can become a #1 or 1a/1b starter

Bouma - yes, if he can stay healthy, I think he is a perfect bottom 6 two-way energy guy

Gillies - solid goalie prospect; very promising but no guarantee either way. Like Ortio, time will tell.

Sieloff/Wotherspoon - if one can become a top 4 guy, I think we've done well. More likely a top 6 though, especially on a "cup contending" team.

Poirier/Klimchuk - simlar to above -- if one guy can become a top 6 guy on a cup contending team, that will be a success. Would be happy if both stick in the top 12, but only so many spots in the bottom 6.

Byron/Knight/Reinhart - if one of these guys can manage a regular third or fourth line spot, similar to what Bouma has done this year

[Phil Russell]

I agree with those who temper the mood with the likelihood that 2/3rds of our top prospect list will likely bust or never be fulltime NHL'ers. However, there are enough quality players in our prospect list now that there is also a decent chance that we have one or two first liners in there as well. I am not convinced that Monahan isn't a first liner and other potential first liners might include Gaudrea, Poirier, Granlund and yes, maybe Baertschi. I am not saying we have five first liners here. Only that the prospect quality is now at the point where there is an OK chance that we have one or two among our high-skill prospects.

[tvp2003]

For comparison, here is a sampling of our top 20 prospects five years ago:

Top 20 at a glance
1. Mikael Backlund, C
2. Greg Nemisz, RW
3. Keith Aulie, D
4. Mitch Wahl, C
5. Leland Irving, G
6. John Negrin, D
7. Matt Keetley, G
8. Juuso Puustinen, RW
9. T.J. Brodie, D
10. Aaron Marvin, C
11. John Armstrong, C
12. Daniel Ryder, C
13. Kris Chucko, LW
14. Kevin Lalande, G
15. Kyle Greentree, LW
16. Matt Pelech, D
17. Jordan Fulton, LW
18. Nick Larson, LW
19. David Van der Gulik, RW
20. Brett Sutter, C

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...ts_spring2009/

Scary list. The fact that only 2 of these have become NHL'ers (10%!) helps explain why we're in rebuild mode.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

You made me start looking around for our top 15.

Seemingly, the top 15 prospects are not the end all as young players can surprise. Here's CPs list from last summer.

I think we need to run this same process every August and get an updated list

Then I can build a summary of gains and losses, graduates, trades, etc .

Was so helpful having that list this season. When the Flames made the Smid trade it was easy to point to that and say they traded their 11th and 17th best prospects when Oiler fans were accusing some of disliking a guy because he was traded.

Good to have that backdrop.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Now I always said that my expectations for next year are when reality kicks in. this team will be worse no matter what the effort level is. But the second year when you cast aside veterans and wrap what's left in a cocoon of Silk and wait a year for a butterfly to emerge can be tough. You need to keep the culture of had work that you established in the first year going. Because if you can't, well look a few hundred KM's up the road and you can see the price for having no culture.

Loved that you wrote that up in a Boston accent!

[SHOGUN]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

For comparison, here is a sampling of our top 20 prospects five years ago:



Scary list. The fact that only 2 of these have become NHL'ers (10%!) helps explain why we're in rebuild mode.

All of our current prospects could easily turn into busts just like that list. Monahan looks to be the only player to stick it in the NHL long term.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

For comparison, here is a sampling of our top 20 prospects five years ago:



Scary list. The fact that only 2 of these have become NHL'ers (10%!) helps explain why we're in rebuild mode.

Interesting for sure, but you also have to take into account the perceived rank of the list in question.

If a team is say top 5 in prospects than you'd assume maybe 10 of 15 will play. If a team is bottom 5 in prospects maybe only 3 play.

That list was never considered impact, even on this site. Backlund and Brodie, ... I had some hope for Negrin, thought he was of the right stock. Ryder had talent but issues.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting for sure, but you also have to take into account the perceived rank of the list in question.

If a team is say top 5 in prospects than you'd assume maybe 10 of 15 will play. If a team is bottom 5 in prospects maybe only 3 play.

That list was never considered impact, even on this site. Backlund and Brodie, ... I had some hope for Negrin, thought he was of the right stock. Ryder had talent but issues.

Don't disagree -- probably not a single player on that list that was considered "blue chip" (maybe Irving when he was drafted). Just noting the quote earlier about 9 of 15 prospects "busting" being a good outcome with our current list. Looking at the 2009 list, 18 of 20 haven't become NHLers. That's extremely low compared to anyone's definition, even if their projection wasn't too far off the mark. Glad the current list has gotten much stronger by comparison.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think we need to run this same process every August and get an updated list

Then I can build a summary of gains and losses, graduates, trades, etc .

Was so helpful having that list this season. When the Flames made the Smid trade it was easy to point to that and say they traded their 11th and 17th best prospects when Oiler fans were accusing some of disliking a guy because he was traded.

Good to have that backdrop.

Very much agree and I hope you do it every year. And thanks

It really adds colour to the process and provides some knots in the rope for perspective.

By seeing where guys were from year to year, you would have a record that nicely illustrated how Granlund and Ortio had breakout moves, Baertschi ad Jankowski went sideways, and Poirier and Klimchuk progressed about as expected/hoped.

that would be awesome.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Interesting for sure, but you also have to take into account the perceived rank of the list in question.

If a team is say top 5 in prospects than you'd assume maybe 10 of 15 will play. If a team is bottom 5 in prospects maybe only 3 play.

That list was never considered impact, even on this site. Backlund and Brodie, ... I had some hope for Negrin, thought he was of the right stock. Ryder had talent but issues.

On the flip side, when you've had no talent in your prospect pool for so long, you may begin to over value what is there.
Many mock lines people post for the "future" have guys like Poirier and Klimchuk pencilled in on top two lines, when the chance of both late firsts being offensive impact players on a contender. Same with Sieloff. He may be OK, but calling him a Wideman-lite would be a stretch. I see Ortio called a decent back up at worst after playing 4 NHL games. Gaudreau is an exciting prospect, and certainly many are cautiously optimistic, but there's nothing sure fire about him.

There's nothing wrong with being high on prospects of your team, in fact that's more enjoyable than being a pessimistic fan. However, an objective view on these prospects probably looks good, but lots of holes still left to fill including an entire first line

[SeanCharles]

To properly guage how accurately I judge the Flames prospect pool I will look back at the players I thought would make the show from years past.

Boyd, Negrin, Wahl, Taratukhin, Keetly and Irving are some prospects I had on my list who never made the NHL. Boyd had talent but lacked core strength and would get knocked down too easily. Negrin and Wahl had injuries derail their careers. Irving and Keetly were poorly developed IMO and Taratukhin left to go back home after 1 successful season in the A.

Lombardi, Backlund, Brodie, Bouma, Prust, Nystrom, Kobasew, Monahan and Phanuef were also on my list and are/were full-time NHLers..

I think its safe to say goaltenders are extremely difficult to judge and given my bad judgement in the past I will not focus on our goalie prospects.

But out of the rest Baertschi, Gaudreau, Poirier, Knight, Sieloff, Wotherspoon, Klimchuk, Reinhart and Granlund are all on my current list and I think all of them should make the NHL.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

1. Gaudreau
2. Baertschi
3. Poirier
4. Granlund
5. Ortio
6. Jankowksi
7. Klimchuk
8. Gillies
9. Reinhart
10. Sieloff
11. Wotherspoon
12. Ferland
13. Knight
14. Arnold
15. Hanowski/Kulak/Culkin/Kanzig (haven't seen enough of them to judge)

Gaudreau and Baertschi have the potential to be solid top 6 guys, but also have a decent chance to bust as well (Gaudreau due to size, Baertschi from injury)

Poirier and Granlund should be at least decent 3rd line players as they play well enough at both ends and have some offensive skill. Things could go off the rails, but all indications thus far is they are on track.

Ortio looks like an NHL goalie. How good is still up in the air.

Jankowski, Klimchuk and Gillies all have shown flashes of great skill, but have also had down times. Just a matter of waiting and seeing which player they'll become.

Reinhart, Hanowski, Arnold, Knight, and Ferland are in tough to make the Flames full time. Knight has an advantage due to his skill in the faceoff circle. I think all of them could be NHL players in limited roles (4th liners mostly with Hanowski the most doubtful) but I don't think they'll all be NHL players here.

Sieloff and Wotherspoon are both NHL calibre players, but likely 5-6 guys in their prime. They might have more in them, but their lack of offensive skill will limit them.

Kanzig is a non prospect until his foot speed improves. At best he's Breen 2.0 at the moment.

Kulak and Culkin need to take steps forward, but as far as project picks go they have been improving since being drafted. Whether the continue improving is still up in the air. Won't likely know until 2016 whether they are NHL potential players or not.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I would say thus far my expectations have been exceeded.

I didn't envision Monahan to be the goalscorer he has become.

Though I had high hopes for Granlund and that I hoped to see him get a cup of coffee this season, I figured he would look out of place.

Colborne - I admit I threw up a little when we traded for him - vastly exceeded my expectations, and now I am thinking he is going to grow (literally, once he puts on some size to his frame) into a very important cog in the future.

Baertschi - the only disappointment thus far. I didn't expect him to come in and light the world on fire, but he looked a step behind Monahan, and his compete level along the boards was just not there. He looked to hesitant at times. The benchings seemed to really bring about Backlund and Colborne, but it didn't seem to do anything for Baertschi.

Reinhart looks so smart out there - but I think he essentially met my expectations in this small sample size in the NHL. He also met my expectations in the AHL. I thought he would be close to a PPG guy down there eventually, and was 'disappointed' last season.

Knight has been a bit underwhelming thus far, but not terrible. Just below expectations. Just figured he would be a bit more noticeable on most shifts.

Hanowski doesn't look very slow any longer. I always saw him as a 4th line winger though, and think he will actually be an NHL player eventually.

Bouma - vastly exceeded expectations. He has been such a warrior out there. One of those heart and soul guys that can lift a team up.

Wotherspoon I didn't expect would take so long to get it going in the AHL (though I guess the missed time must have impacted him). However, I didn't expect him to look this decent at the NHL level yet.

Ramage - very disappointing so far. I flip-flopped a lot about him over the last few years. Loads of mixed-seasons, mixed reviews... Such a tremendous leader full of character, but he simply is not standing out from career AHL'ers or other NCAA free agents the Flames acquired. Still a bit early to give up on him, but definitely expected a more steady presence out there on the Heat this year.

Jankowski - beaten to death on other threads. Only thing I would like to add is that I don't see him as a 'boom or bust' type. To me, boom or bust types are either players that make the top 6 and contribute greatly, or completely bust out of the NHL since they aren't 3rd or 4th line players. Jankowski has the size, skating ability and IQ to perhaps turn into a 3rd line checker (and he does play in a very defence-oriented program). Gaudreau I agree is a boom/bust, as I find it difficult to imagine him as a checker. Jankowski may not make it, and it is fine to have this opinion about him, but I just don't understand how people view him as 'boom/bust'.

Gaudreau - It just becomes difficult to have any expectations with this kid. When the Flames first drafted him, I thought it was such a reach, that it was practically a throw-away pick. Seriously, who drafts players that are 135lbs? Well, he has far exceeded my expectations in the first season, got me thinking he was 'special' in the 2nd season, and now this year I just don't know what to think of him any longer. I didn't think he would be hovering at 2ppg, but at the same time it doesn't surprise me. That is what I mean by having difficulty having any expectations.

Arnold - I have high expectations for him. I think he will be a great 4th line center or even a 3rd line center if he can increase his footspeed a bit. He isn't slow, but I think he will need to be a bit quicker to make it as a checker. He has the size, aggressiveness, IQ, and he helps make Gaudreau the player he is with his defensive acumen, and ability to score and set-up plays as well. One of the most underrated prospects.

Ortio has met my expectations. Been trying to follow him ever since the Flames drafted him. Was shocked at how terrible he was in the AHL, but he has followed that up with some strong seasons in Europe. I thought he would come in and do well, and I want to see him in another few games this year. I guess I am slightly surprised at him, as I didn't think he was this close to being NHL ready - looks like he is right on the cusp.

Gillies disappointed me - though I can write that off due to his injury he was playing through.

Won't get into the CHL prospects, and I know I missed a few other prospects...

All in all, I think this crop of players is really showing. Call me a homer, but I think a large percentage are actually going to be NHL players. Why? There are a few common themes throughout these players - whether they project as 1st liners or bottom liners - character and high hockey IQ.

Gone are players like Howse who were essentially a one trick pony (and a very good trick at that, I have to say), who didn't have the IQ or the drive to keep pushing. These kids do that. You seem continual improvement in their games. Typically you start seeing a few players start plateauing (e.g. Ramage, to a lesser and more worrisome extent, Baertschi - though I think he will be just fine, and seems to be snapping out of it). You aren't really seeing that with the rest of the crop. They are all taking varying steps forward without looking too overwhelmed.

Now, not all of them are going to make it on the Flames of course - there simply is not enough room for all those bottom 6 players coming up. A few will be lost through injuries unfortunately, but a few will be moved in trades down the line.

Let's see how they continue doing the rest of the season here. Baertschi is a likely call-up soon (hopefully his injury is minor, and he doesn't skip a beat). Really want to see a much more aggressive and tenacious Baertschi - not necessarily more physical, just a guy that battles a bit more for the puck, skates harder on his shifts, and backchecks with more purpose.

[belsarius]

It's such a funny thing to match expectations to reality. You look at the Boston Bruins and only one player in their current top 10 scoring was picked in the first round, and that just happens to be Iggy. Otherwise it is a collection of second/third rounders who panned out. Of course they might just be the exception to the rule but considering that Weisbrod was at the forefront of a good chunk of our current prospects I think it might be fair to say we could end up with the same kind of influx of solid player talent without the flash.

I truely believe this time we can let ourselves be more excited about our prospects, because they play differently than any batch of prospects in the last decade. They all seem committed to both ends of the ice, they give their all but most importantly except for some rookie moments they all seem to have very high hockey IQ.

It seems that every single one of the call ups have a good nose for the play. Sure there are rookie mistakes, and without NHL experience that will happen but the improvement shows they understand their mistakes and work to make them better. They have a desire to benefit the team first and their stat line second. Sure they may mostly be third liners with a couple that could play top 6 but you don't need a team full of point per game guys to win. So I may not be optomistic that any of them will be a superstar, I think the group of them are exactly what we need to build a core of a very good hockey team.

What I wouldn't give to add 20 year old Iginla to this team over the one he was forced with.

[Freeway]

To be honest, I was just hoping that none of the players would get embarrassed at the NHL level. Several of the youngsters have easily exceeded that goal.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Freeway

To be honest, I was just hoping that none of the players would get embarrassed at the NHL level. Several of the youngsters have easily exceeded that goal.

I don't think any have. The only one that looks out of place currently is Corban Knight.