Brian Burke at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

See Canucks, Vancouver

Or as a counter-argument. See Blackhawks, Chicago. They have four star players not on entry-level contracts.

[Muta]

Someone should make a gif of that interview last night, specifically when he said to Duthie, "YOU play flag football?" .... and then just slightly shook his head in disbelief.

First thing I thought of when I saw that was INTERNET MEME...

[Stanley]

I could care less if he read moneyball or not...

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Arsenal14

And once again Burke misunderstands what Moneyball was about. It was about figuring out what skills the market was undervaluing and exploiting them. At that time in baseball it was on-base percentage/walks/taking pitches. If home run hitting and stolen bases were undervalued Moneyball would say that you should go after that instead.

Logically though, homeruns and stolen bases will never be undervalued because they are both exciting and traditional. The things that end up being undervalued are underlying ticky tack things like taking pitches. I'm not saying it's bad to have that, but I am sure glad our gm, or whatever he is, isn't basing his whole philosophy around that. I am also thrilled that he likes obnoxious and entertaining hockey. Sounds great actually.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Or as a counter-argument. See Blackhawks, Chicago. They have four star players not on entry-level contracts.

Saad, Shaw, Raanta.

Kruger on the 1st year of his second pro deal.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Stanley

I could care less if he read moneyball or not...

I, on the other hand, couldn't care less.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Saad, Shaw, Raanta.

Kruger on the 1st year of his second pro deal.

So Kruger doesn't count then.

Raanta is the backup. Andrew Shaw is a 4th liner who can be replaced for under $2MM. Their ELC cap hits are not significantly helping this team pay their stars. This has no impact on anything.

Saad is absolutely a good example. However, most teams in the NHL have at least one contributing player, either top 6 F or top 4 D, on an ELC.

In any event, if you really want a good team without major ELC contracts, look at the Sharks. Really, the key is non-UFA deals, not ELC's. I honestly think you get more value out of the reduced cap hit on a guy signed as an RFA than you do out of the ELC guys, even if the latter guys are playing for ~$1M against the cap.

[btimbit]

In case anyone missed him in the 1st intermission yesterday too

http://www.tsn.ca/videohub/?collection=72&show=298785

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Or as a counter-argument. See Blackhawks, Chicago. They have four star players not on entry-level contracts.

And they draft well. They lost versteeg and buff for pennies on the dollar and won another championship.

[saillias]

+Ladd, and Campbell. It's a shining example of successful drafting & development that they replenished the depth they were forced to gut and resume being a Stanley Cup winner 2 years later.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Logically though, homeruns and stolen bases will never be undervalued because they are both exciting and traditional.

They can however be overvalued. Less so the homerun since it's the most efficient way to get runs... if you hit a lot of homeruns you have to be pretty damn bad at other stuff to end up with a determination of low value (See: Arencibia, J.P.).

Stolen bases are different. Unlike a homerun a stolen base involves risking an out. You only get 27 outs in a game so if you're taking a chance on burning one it had better either be situationally important or you better have a track record of success that justify's a greenlight. Personally, if I was managing a MLB team the rule would be unless you have a career 75%ish success rate (in which case greenlight) you only steal when I tell you to steal.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Everytime Burke says anything about Moneyball he just proves that he never bothered to really read the book or understand the concept.



Blah, I dislike this promotion of style over substance. How about just hiring a coach that deploys the talent in a way that will produce expected wins. Wins are what count not whether or not they're "big and obnoxious". Also I wish he'd drop the "my" speak... that terminology should be the province of the GM (whoever that ends up being) not the President of the Hockey Ops division. It's gonna be hard to get a quality hire if he's gonna be a huge meddler.

Or he's just giving you the headline on his opinion in the minimal time available to him (and general awareness of audience interest) when he speaks publicly, versus providing a full de-brief on his thesis around "Moneyball".

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Arsenal14

And once again Burke misunderstands what Moneyball was about. It was about figuring out what skills the market was undervaluing and exploiting them. At that time in baseball it was on-base percentage/walks/taking pitches. If home run hitting and stolen bases were undervalued Moneyball would say that you should go after that instead.

I'm not sure Burke is misunderstanding what Moneyball is about, Burke just doesn't believe in it. Burke is just a big picture guy who believes in watching a player play and doesn't believe advanced stats are all that useful.

If you look at Burke's body of work, he has always believed in building his team around elite/franchise players. Advanced stats does nothing to help him identify these players. And let's face it, it's a lot more fun going to the games and watching a player play in game situations than looking at spreadsheets and statistics, which is what Burke was talking about.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

See Canucks, Vancouver

Or the Sutter-era Flames. Overpaying for veteran depth players (Amonte, Aucoin, Friesen, Staios, etc.) made it impossible to supplement Iginla with other stars.

[calgarywinning]

The program the Feaster Bunny was using was called decision lens.

http://www.decisionlens.com

While I am not a huge Burke fan, to date, his statement about buying success in a box to circumvent the business of hockey and drafting are very accurate. The fact is that we need to draft well for the next couple of years to put a contending team together. You can't undo that hard work.

Stats are skewed of players on crap teams, or bad seasons or extenuating circumstances. You can't paint a Picasso mathematically.

I hope Burke can get us some decent young guys, and make a couple of the draft picks. He is definitely old guard though, reminds me of a close-minded my way or the highway guy. When it comes to saying the coach goes my way, makes hime more than a hockey operations assistant.

[taco.vidal]

Here are some other interesting bits from Sloan. Its focused on the NBA but we always have discussion about whether pro teams and athletes would tank. Oilers anyone?

Tanking, draft discussed at Sloan

A former NBA general manager admitted his team tanked. A former coach called a current team, with its general manager in the room, "embarrassing" for intentionally losing. And a current general manager suggested the league completely change its draft structure.

Bryan Colangelo revealed he wanted the 2011-12 Toronto Raptors, for whom he served as general manager, to lose.

"I tried to tank a couple years ago," Colangelo said. "And I didn't come out and say, 'Coach, you've got to lose games.' I never said that. I wanted to establish a winning tradition and a culture and all of that. But I wanted to do it in the framework of playing the young players, and with that, comes losing. There's just no way to avoid that."

Colangelo said Avery Johnson -- while coaching the then-New Jersey Nets, who already had traded their first-round pick -- was "smirking" after losing to Toronto by 31 points in the final game of the season. That win led to the Raptors picking eighth in the 2012 draft and selecting Terrence Ross.

Had they lost, they could have been in a coin flip for the No. 6 pick, which -- as Colangelo emphasized -- eventually became Damian Lillard.

Really, Colangelo said he was aiming even higher. He wanted the No. 1 pick, but Toronto coach Dwane Casey interfered.

"He did too good of a job in motivating his players," Colangelo said.

[PeteLFan]

My understanding of decision lens was that if you had two players that are rated so similar, that it helps you decide between the two. If finds something in the ratings to put one player ahead if the other. I believe that was tool used to separate Sven from Nathan.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

So Kruger doesn't count then.

Raanta is the backup. Andrew Shaw is a 4th liner who can be replaced for under $2MM. Their ELC cap hits are not significantly helping this team pay their stars. This has no impact on anything.

Saad is absolutely a good example. However, most teams in the NHL have at least one contributing player, either top 6 F or top 4 D, on an ELC.

In any event, if you really want a good team without major ELC contracts, look at the Sharks. Really, the key is non-UFA deals, not ELC's. I honestly think you get more value out of the reduced cap hit on a guy signed as an RFA than you do out of the ELC guys, even if the latter guys are playing for ~$1M against the cap.

He never said the stars have to be on ELC. His point is you have to have those contracts on the team so you can afford the stars. And he is right. If you don't draft well you end up over paying in free agency.

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[kehatch]

Burke uses stats and he uses advanced stats. He just sees it as part of the picture. The stats crowd issue is that many use the data and ignore the eye test. That rubs people like Burke the wrong way.

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[hamburgler]

Originally Posted by PeteLFan

My understanding of decision lens was that if you had two players that are rated so similar, that it helps you decide between the two. If finds something in the ratings to put one player ahead if the other. I believe that was tool used to separate Sven from Nathan.

So did decision lense help us choose Jankowski over Maata? #blamedecisionlense