Blue Jays 2013/14 off season

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by REDVAN

This year wouldn't have been so bad if Morrow wasn't hurt.

Still need another good starting arm, but they likely only need one. AND to upgrade 2B and C...

I still don't believe in Morrow. Yes he can be dominant and yes he can strike guys out but because of this, he has a high pitch count. If he runs into any trouble at all (which is more often than not) he can't make it out of the 5th.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by nik-

Yeah, that just sounds like a "cut our losses" decision. It's the right choice.

Not that I disagree with letting Johnson walk - but I really don't think the "cut our losses" talk ever happened. I know we got Reyes in the Marlins deal as well, but I really feel Josh Johnson was the center piece of that deal. If money wasn't an issue, then Johnson would be a Blue Jay today, IMO.

I know it's sexy to talk like the Jays are atop the lists of Matt Garza, Tanaka, etc. - but fact of the matter is, there is a lot more players in the free agency game this year with boatloads of TV revenue being distributed. So while 14 million is 14 million - you still have to entice free agents to sign to dotted line and fill the void. Has anyone looked at the free agent market for starting pitchers this off-season? Arroyo, Garza, Tanaka, Capuano, Burnett (Pitt or retire), Ubaldo - blah... I'd rather take the gamble on Johnson tbh, if the money is not an issue (as some on here say it is).

I forgot to add a third scenario in my first post - his medicals are of concern, which sure could be a possibility.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by dustyanddaflames

Not that I disagree with letting Johnson walk - but I really don't think the "cut our losses" talk ever happened. I know we got Reyes in the Marlins deal as well, but I really feel Josh Johnson was the center piece of that deal. If money wasn't an issue, then Johnson would be a Blue Jay today, IMO.

Its not money.

Read an article in the Globe and Mail I think it was in the last day or two; the Jays payroll will be at least the same, if not more. They have the ability to make additions - especially bigger ones - on a case by case basis. Definitely not money.

I would have liked them to take another 1-year chance on Johnson, but I think we may have over-rated him sadly, and coupled with his injury problems. I was listening to Keith Law and Eric Karabell on the Behind the Dish Podcast of a couple of days ago, and they scoffed at Johnson - i.e. some team is going to pay too much.

[Where ru Chris O'Sullivan]

It was a truly sour season, something I still can't get over and as mentioned there is nothing better in the FA market. but, I'd rather take our chances on Esmil type walk-ups than qualifying Johnson.

[dustyanddaflames]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

Its not money.

Read an article in the Globe and Mail I think it was in the last day or two; the Jays payroll will be at least the same, if not more. They have the ability to make additions - especially bigger ones - on a case by case basis. Definitely not money.

I would have liked them to take another 1-year chance on Johnson, but I think we may have over-rated him sadly, and coupled with his injury problems. I was listening to Keith Law and Eric Karabell on the Behind the Dish Podcast of a couple of days ago, and they scoffed at Johnson - i.e. some team is going to pay too much.

Sorry, but I don't by that it's not money... If it weren't about the money, then why not qualify Johnson? Honest question. Does anyone on this board really think that the Jays are going to go out and make a free agent splash? The final cost of your Matt Garza's this winter will be equal, if not more, than what Johnson's QO was. Add to the fact that you are going to have to overpay to get any free agent to come to Toronto (finished last in the AL East, Canada, etc.).

Arroyo will get killed in the AL East in a park like the Rogers Center, Garza/Tanaka will cost an arm and a leg and highly unlikely Toronto is their destination of choice. Anything else on the free agent wire, I really doubt is better than a 1 year risk with Johnson.

I don't doubt that there is money available for the "right" situation - and maybe my issue with the whole thing, is that we need starting pitching, and I believe that Josh Johnson is going to be as cheap as it comes when trying to fill our glaring holes. I just don't get it, as the trade route is looking more difficult to maintain after our splashes last off-season, what really does Anthopolous has left for bullets in the chamber? Sanchez, Stroman, maybe Hutchinson after his AFL performance?

[Jason14h]

If it weren't about the money, then why not qualify Johnson? Honest question.

Cause they were afraid he would accept the offer?

Here are his last 4 years stats:

11-6 :2.30 ERA
3-1 :1.64
8-14 :3.81
2-8 :6.20

24 wins over 4 seasons. ERA getting worst. Getting older and coming off numerous injuries.

Pitchers rarely come back from this many injuries, especially once they hit 30. It's the same reason Morrow is probably done.

[dustyanddaflames]

Tim Lincecum - just signed a 2 year deal worth 35 million dollars.

18-5 * 2.62
15-7 * 2.48
16-10 * 3.43
13-14 * 2.74
10-15 * 5.18
10-14 * 4.37

Of course the Blue Jays were afraid he would accept, I think Johnson would be crazy not to accept. The certainty of 14 million dollars to rebuild his value for one season far outweighs an alternative option, though it is plausable that someone will pay him close to this amount once on the market.

Wins cannot be looked at in this context when evaluating pitchers, as I think we'd both agree that wins are more of a "team" stat than anything. I am not a sabremetrics guy, nor do I fully understand them, or else I would trot some of these out (and they might not support my argument neither, I don't know).

The ERA looked good up until this season, and it is hard not to think that Johnson's injury may have had something to do with the inflation. Through all these "numerous injuries", Johnson still had pretty solid seasons, and is still only 29 years of age.

As for pitchers rarely coming back from injury, I don't know whether or not that is a valid arguement. Is there anything to base this comment off of? I will acknowledge that Johnson's medical chart probably isn't the nicest to to look at - but up until this past season, he has compiled three pretty solid seasons which are probably worth a 14mill QO, at least. It is not impossible to think that Johnson could bounce back (see Lester, Lackey in 2013), if healthy.

So I ask, what is the point you are trying to make? I'd take Johnson at 14 million for one season, at his 2012 statistics. No question about it. Bottom line, I'm dissapointed in Johnson's one season in Toronto, just as much as everyone else. What I am even more dissapointed in though, is he is walking away for nothing.

[zukes]

I'm hoping that they have a deal in place with Johnson already. They really should have qualified him, despite the trainwreck season.

I think it'll be interesting to see if they go after this latest Japanese pitcher. Seeing how Darvish has faired, and to a lesser extent Ryu (I know he's Korean), I suspect that more teams will be willing to post higher $$$ than in the past.

[dustyanddaflames]

Without looking it up, I seem to recall a change in the posting system where the player now has "somewhat" of an ability to choose his location.

[Jason14h]

It is not impossible to think that Johnson could bounce back (see Lester, Lackey in 2013), if healthy.

Impossible ? No. Unlikely I would say.

Lester has never had a Tommy John. Lackey was a model of health until last season.

S

o I ask, what is the point you are trying to make? I'd take Johnson at 14 million for one season, at his 2012 statistics. No question about it. Bottom line, I'm dissapointed in Johnson's one season in Toronto, just as much as everyone else. What I am even more dissapointed in though, is he is walking away for nothing.

My point is the team was smart to not throw 14 million at a bad gamble. Just because you are disapointed doesn't mean it makes sense to throw more good money after a bad asset.

You don't like wins (Fair enough, but a starters job is to WIN) how about Inning's pitched.

Here are his IP over his career:

2006 157.0
2007 15.2
2008 87.1
2009 209.0
2010 183.2 (Shut down for Tommy John)
2011 60.1
2012 191.1
2013 81.1 (Shut down for Injuries)

So three times out of 8 season he has put together a normal starting pitchers workload. And each time he had major arm injuries.

Tim Lincecum - just signed a 2 year deal worth 35 million dollars.

18-5 * 2.62
15-7 * 2.48
16-10 * 3.43
13-14 * 2.74
10-15 * 5.18
10-14 * 4.37

Lincecum doesn't get hurt, and gives you innings. He is also a hero in SF so the team is showing him some loyalty. And his numbers are still better then Johnson's.

[dustyanddaflames]

I appreciate your response, thanks. The point I was trying to make with Lincecum, was that I feel Johnson at 14 million dollars on a one year deal looks pretty solid when compared to the deal Lincecum just signed in SF. The money that starting pitching is commanding now is just ridiculous - and I feel for 14 million dollars, why not give it to Johnson in the hope he can rebound with a healthy 2014. You aren't signing any of the top tier guys, unless you really overpay, and I mean REALLY overpay.

It's not that I have the extreme love for Josh Johnson - I just fail to see how they address their rotation for the same dollars Johnson would have commanded.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Cause they were afraid he would accept the offer?


.

For sure, in my view the Jays looked at his last season and the fact he was injuried and had to make a decision.

Jays have a set budget if Johnson was qualified and it turns out he is injured once again for the full season. Jays are better off spending the dollars on another player.

In my view it was the right discussion,

[Sylvanfan]

Yeah, the huge difference with Lincecum and Johnson is the health. Lincecum has struggled the past couple of years, but he still makes his 30+starts a year. A veteran pitcher who starts that many games these days commands 11-13 million a season let alone a guy who can pitch effectively on occasion. The Jays already have a major health question mark in Morrow, so having that type of money tied up on two injury prone guys just doesn't make sense to me.

I expect Johnson to sign with someone in the NL this year.

[CaramonLS]

Just in watching Johnson this year he looked like he was trying to pitching at Safeco, not the Rogers Centre. He just didn't seem to adapt his style and pitch selection to the most HR friendly park in the league.

I think Buck mentioned a few times on the broadcast he looked like he was trying to pitch to contact and not overpower guys with his fastball. I'm not sure why this was, but maybe he was aware that he had lost some MPH on his fastball and was trying to compensate. Either way, he wasn't the power pitcher we thought we were getting in the deal.

I'm not too sure another year would have been the best for either party.

[dustyanddaflames]

That is fair - I understand the risk in bringing back Johnson, but I would like to know what your plan would be to address the pitching rotation if you were Anthopolous. In my mind, we need two starters, as we have Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow already laying claim to 3 of 5 spots. Please try and be realistic with dollars/term if you are signing free agents, and whether or not they would realistically even considering Toronto as a destination. Trading is also an option, but has to be somwhere in the realm of reasonability.

Curious to see where everyone ends up.

[Jason14h]

Ricky Nolasco : 3 years 36 million, Mutual option at $13 million

Matt Garza: 5 years 70 million - I believe AA has a hard on for Garza and he will be the #1 target

Jason Hammel: 1 year incentive deal

Trade for A's Brett Anderson as an injury hopeful.

[dustyanddaflames]

I would be opposed to Scott Feldman neither

Edit - should read, wouldn't

[Caged Great]

The Jays need to get their starting pitching to have each starter being at least a 3.5-4.25 ERA type guy. If they adjust the offense by adding in the areas that are a black hole (C, 2B), then they should get enough production that having average/above average starting pitching will enable them to be in the hunt for a playoff spot.

[RedHot25]

Well, I would have liked Josh for another year - always liked him for some reason - but I think they didn't qualify him for the reasons everyone has mentioned here: injuries, not suited for the AL/homer sitting stadiums, not worth the QO price, etc. There is talk of him going back to a pitcher friendly park in the NL, which I think would be the best fit for him. I would love if they brought him back on the cheap, but I'm not sure its going to happen. And with all of this in mind, no, its not about the money - in the sense that they don't have to chop their budget, and given Josh's injury/performance/QO price, it didn't make sense to them - regardless of their budget.

Will be interesting to see what they do. I'm not sure there is a lot out there FA wise, but I thought I read somewhere that AA wants to add at least 2 v. good starters. I don't think they will get him, but I do agree that AA would love to add Garza.

[Parallex]

Not surprised on the Johnson non-qualifier... simply not worth 14.1M.

So Jays needs...

1: One or two starting Pitchers (Only healthy ones please, got enough fragile guys as is)
2: Starting Catcher (Non-tender Arencibia... awful player and a bad attitude)
3: 2nd Baseman
4: 4th Outfielder (By preference one who can hit well against lefties)

1 & 3 will be tall orders, 2 & 4 shouldn't be that hard to find (Seriously Arencibia was so bad that literally any major league quality catcher will be an improvement).