THW opinion on the 2013-2014 Flames

[Red Slinger]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I agree. This team isnt that much worse than the one we started with last season. The only real loss is Bouwmeester.

Think about it, Iggy is 35 and his production is on the decline. He is also more of a 2nd liner at his age. We have plenty of 2nd liners and players who can play top 6 minutes: Hudler, Backlund, Baertschi, Glencross, Stempniak, Cammalleri, Stajan, Jones. Throw in Galiardi, Knight and we have 10 players who can fill top 9 mintues.

I agree that Iginla declined but to say that his absense won't be felt isn't fair. He still had 13 goals last year (which would have been 2nd on the Flames) and 33 points, which would have been first. In addition to that, he is a right shot and a natural right winger, both of which the Flames are woefully short of.

Not to mention Monahan and Guardreau who can probably play in the NHL right now, and both might make an appearance this season.

I think it's premature to assume what Monahan is capable of. I mean I hope he's good enough to make the team but I'm not counting on it. And if he does make the team and stick all year I wouldn't expect him to be a big point producer.

Gaudreau is playing in the NCAA again this year and said he's playing the year there. He's not signed by the Flames and if he does sign with them he can't go back to college and loses his NCAA eligibility.

Throw in Baertschi who should replace Tanguays production, and should become a top line player at some point. Trading old players lets a guy like him get the ice time to at least try. Hes on the upswing, unlike Tanguay and Iggy (two of my fav players).

Tanguay produced .68 points per game last year. Baertschi produced .5. So, yeah it's possible for Baertschi to replace Tanguay's production but I think it would be foolish to assume that it will happen.

Kipper made us seem like a bad team last year. If goaltending improves the only real concern I have with the Flames is rounding out our top 4 dman.

Yeah, Kipper made the Flames seem bad last year. But so did about 20 other guys. It's very unlikely that the goaltending will improve significantly. There's certainly very little reason to think that it will be better.

Russell may surprise..

The whole team may surprise and play better than they have up to this point in their lives.

This team isnt as bad, so long as goaltending improves, as everyone thinks...

I think the defense is (somehow) worse than last year and goaltending may also be worse but probably no better. The teams depth is better but the top end talent is worse. I like your optimism but I just don't see it.

[Freeway]

When the team was 50+% older players (e.g., 28-29 and up), saying "Hey, they might surprise..." was rather foolish. At that point, outside of maybe a handful of surprises in the league, you KNOW what those players can do at the NHL level.

Now that the Flames are looking to be be 50+% younger players, all bets are off. What Sven Baertschi and Roman Horak were last year probably isn't going to be what they are this year. And the same goes for basically everyone under 27.

[Jay Random]

The biggest difference, to my mind, is that most of the new players coming into the lineup will not be eligible for waivers. This means that the team can improve by what I think of as 'burning through prospects'.

That's not as destructive as it sounds. What I mean is this:

You have a 30-year-old veteran on your 23-man roster, and he stinks. You can only do three things with him: play him anyway, scratch him, or trade him. If you trade him, you're likely to get somebody else's 30-year-old veteran who also stinks. If you play him, at his age, he's not likely to improve in any meaningful way — what you see is what you get. If you scratch him, he's worth nothing to you, and besides, you can only scratch three players on a given night. The Flames might have been a better team last year if they had a 30-man roster, so that each night they could scratch the 10 guys who were in the worst slumps — but those are not the rules.

If you have a player who is 21 or 22 and he stinks, you have better options. You can send him back to the minors for more training and seasoning, and it's likely that he will eventually improve. (If not, at least he isn't costing you a lot of money while he takes up an AHL roster spot.) When you send him down, you can bring up another prospect to replace him. If you have ten players on ELCs and are willing to use them, then in effect, you have that 30-man roster, with the bottom 7 men at any given time playing AHL games.

This season and for some time to come, the Flames will have this luxury. They'll be able to cycle players through the roster on extended tryouts, so to speak, keep the ones who succeed, and replace the ones who don't. More players passing through the roster and getting game action = more chances of finding players who can stick.

Whether they will actually do this, of course, is up to the coaching staff.

[djsFlames]

I've said this for a while but my prediction for this '13-14 team is that they will play over their heads in the first portion of the year. The younger leafs of a couple years ago, even the Oilers did that early in their seasons. You'd see them in the top 6 into november, then they'd fall off later in the 82 and cease to maintain the level of play due to the usual adversity in a full season and lack of experience dealing with said adversity, but I could very much see this team doing the same. They're going to ride that energy for the first couple months and really get us excited, maybe take a couple of these numbskull experts off guard, but then the reality will set in later. Eventually we'll start having more and more complete seasons with more infused talent and experience gained in our top young players (at least, that's the hope). I just hope Monahan's a part of it this year.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

I just hope Monahan's a part of it this year.

Having Monahan on the Flames this year would be waste waste wasteful. The Flames couldn't do a worse thing for the organization then to throw away a year of Monahan's artificially cheap service (and make him subsequently more expensive) so that he can play limited minutes in a year that's destined to be a throw-away year anyways.

For the good of the Flames he needs to be sent back to the OHL this year.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Having Monahan on the Flames this year would be waste waste wasteful.

I agree, but not for the reasons you give. I'm more concerned about Monahan's own development. I believe that he would be best served by a chance to play a key role on a good team, and play a long season with a decent playoff run. You almost never find an 18-year-old who is physically mature enough to play big minutes on an NHL team for the full length of an NHL season, and in any case, I did say a good team. Of course, the 67's are not a good team either.

What I'd like to see is for Monahan to go to a contender in the OHL and be part of a team that is trying for a Memorial Cup berth. That would do him more good than being clobbered every night in Calgary or Ottawa.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Of course, the 67's are not a good team either.

Sure, but I would wager heavily that if the Flames return him to the 67's that he'll be traded to a contender in relatively short order (I would suspect Barrie possibly London). They'd (the 67's) would be foolish not to since I wager they'd get a hefty ransom for him.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Sure, but I would wager heavily that if the Flames return him to the 67's that he'll be traded to a contender in relatively short order (I would suspect Barrie possibly London). They'd (the 67's) would be foolish not to since I wager they'd get a hefty ransom for him.

That's what I would be hoping for.

In fact, if I were in Jay Feaster's shoes, I might make a suggestion to the 67's brass: You should trade Monahan's rights, because if you don't, we'll probably keep him in the NHL. If he's going to play for a losing team, he might as well be losing at the highest level.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

I've said this for a while but my prediction for this '13-14 team is that they will play over their heads in the first portion of the year. The younger leafs of a couple years ago, even the Oilers did that early in their seasons. You'd see them in the top 6 into november, then they'd fall off later in the 82 and cease to maintain the level of play due to the usual adversity in a full season and lack of experience dealing with said adversity, but I could very much see this team doing the same. They're going to ride that energy for the first couple months and really get us excited, maybe take a couple of these numbskull experts off guard, but then the reality will set in later. Eventually we'll start having more and more complete seasons with more infused talent and experience gained in our top young players (at least, that's the hope). I just hope Monahan's a part of it this year.

I think this as well. I see them being similar to the Avs of 09-10. Maybe not climb into 8th, but they will be more competitive then they were supposed to be. I think the 14-15 season will be worse statistically then next seasons. Lots of sophomore slumps and still no real #1 goalie who stands out.

I think the team this upcomming season will come out flying, full of energy, and really re-ignite the fan base. Like you said, the real test will come once around xmas time and they face adversity once teams settle where they are supposed to be. Hopefully the fans stay patient because IMO the worst is yet to come.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Having Monahan on the Flames this year would be waste waste wasteful. The Flames couldn't do a worse thing for the organization then to throw away a year of Monahan's artificially cheap service (and make him subsequently more expensive) so that he can play limited minutes in a year that's destined to be a throw-away year anyways.

For the good of the Flames he needs to be sent back to the OHL this year.

If Monahan shows he can score 25 goals and 50 points based on his 9-game "try-out" should he still be sent down?

I agree he should be sent down if he doesn't get top-6 minutes, but the Flames might have a lot of 1st year players coming in next season (Gaudreau, Agostino, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, 2014 1st rounder). It might be best for the Flames to have Monahan come in this season so the influx of rookies is not as high next season.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Fire

If Monahan shows he can score 25 goals and 50 points based on his 9-game "try-out" should he still be sent down?

If wishes turn out to be horses, should rides then be made free?

The fact is, an 18-year-old kid cannot possibly show that he's a 25-goal or 50-point scorer based on nine games in October. The sample size is too small. How many players have there been in NHL history who were hotter than $2 pistols in October, but were average or worse over the course of a full season?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fire

If Monahan shows he can score 25 goals and 50 points based on his 9-game "try-out" should he still be sent down?

I don't think it's possible to adaquately demonstrate that in a 9 game sample size to say nothing of being extremely unlikely (particularily when he'd probably be playing limited minutes in a depth role). Besides what good would those 25G & 50P do the Flames? It wouldn't put them into the playoff picture.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I kind of disagree about the line...

"the team’s very lean on NHL experience"

... I mean they're not the old guys that they were before but there's still a fair amount of guys with significant NHL experience that I wouldn't characterize it as "lean".

Matt Stajan leads the Flames in NHL games played (652). It's pretty lean.

And I'm fine with that. About the only cause for optimism next season will be youthful energy.

[mikeecho]

From the article...

"Brian McGrattan will slot in here and there to act as a bodyguard to the kids."

Can we all just agree that the group of Flames prospects should never be referred to in the collective sense as "the kids."

Save that garbage for the team up morth.

[kermitology]

This notion of burning a year on Monahan's contract bothers me, same thing with the idea that it's a complete waste.

Is he going to be on a competitive team? No, but does it take pressure off of him to come in an instantly perform? Absolutely. Plus as Fire mentions, you get to stagger your ELC expirations, as well as your rookie class by having players come in at different levels.

You can't ice a team composed of so many rookies. Easing the rookies into the team is a great idea. If Monahan looks like he can play in the NHL, you keep him up. If he doesn't fit in the top 4, then he goes back to Junior.

[Anduril]

Besides, in terms of taking advantage of the low cost of an ELC, it shouldn't matter at all to the Flames considering how little cap space we're using right now. If Monahan shows that he is comfortable in the NHL then giving him the opportunity to grow and then help his fellow rookie ease into things next year should be a bigger bonus.
Naturally it'll be dependent on what the staff think of Monahan for the first 9 games but he should be given every opportunity to stick.

We can talk about managing ELCs when some of these draft picks pan out and we've got a playoff team on our hands.

[Ashasx]

To me, it's simple. Unless Monahan gets top 6 minutes (and that he deserves to get them), he should be sent down to junior. Hopefully the 67s then trade him to Barrie or something.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

To me, it's simple. Unless Monahan gets top 6 minutes (and that he deserves to get them), he should be sent down to junior. Hopefully the 67s then trade him to Barrie or something.

Do you see Monahan beating out both Stajan and Backlund? At the same time, what's wrong with getting ~13 minutes a night playing in the best league in the world over 82 games?

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Anduril

Do you see Monahan beating out both Stajan and Backlund? At the same time, what's wrong with getting ~13 minutes a night playing in the best league in the world over 82 games?

Stajan is gone after this year anyway, regardless of how he plays. We should be looking to trade him for anything we can get. He's not part of the plan going forward.

[djsFlames]

Our young guys have to start in the league eventually. How much more could a high IQ, physically developed center like Monahan gain between now and next summer from a league he's already dominated in for 3 seasons? As opposed to a transitional sheltered role in the league he's going to be playing in for his career for 82 games in a season with little pressure and low expectations? And none of the kids should step in their first year and be top 6 guys anyways. Not many do, unless they're top 2 picks, usually the franchise type. Baertschi was a 3rd-4th liner for the most part in his first season. People didn't like that, but that's how you ease them into the league. If Monahan is ready then I'd rather have him get a head start on his development in this league. The sooner he starts, the sooner he figures out how to produce and contribute to the team's eventual success. Also, this way we'll be staggering our top guns perfectly. Last year was Sven, this year Monahan, and next will be Johnny (hopefully Ekblad/Reinhart too), then Jankowski after that. Again, it all depends on how camp goes for him. But if he looks better than the centers we're already penciling in for the roster, then no one should argue that he should stick.