Summer Prospect Rank Poll Round 5

[Dienasty]

I went with knight.

I like to weigh potential with probability

first line center potential = 100

Knight is probably a 70, with an 85% chance of hitting.

Jankow is a 95 with about a 50% chance of hitting.

So I have Knight ranked a little higher. If Knight plays all season in the A with decent results and Jankow tears up college that ranking will change significantly. From what I hear Knight plays gritty, and is mouthy like Bolland, with a bit more offensive vision.

[Day Tripper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Jankowski - higher ceiling than the others and still nicely on track to get there.

(Though I agree that if he doesn't progress to the 0.75 - 0.8 PPG pace this year, that his status should and will take a set-back)

If he puts up anything less than 1 PPG, things aren't looking too spectacular. I mean, Gaudreau put up 44 PTS in 44 GP in his first year in college compared to 18 PTS in 34 GP for Jankowski, and he was just one month older than Jankowski was in his first year at Providence.

EDIT: Then again, Blake Wheeler didn't have 1 PPG in any of his three college years, and he's turned into a solid player.

And of course, Gaudreau himself improved in his sophomore year with 51 PTS in 35 games. That's an NHL 82 game equivalency of 49 points, by the way (for whatever it's worth).

[Fire]

I picked Wotherspoon because I believe he's a better overall player than Sieloff and Jankowski hasn't proven enough to me that he is a better prospect yet.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Day Tripper

If he puts up anything less than 1 PPG, things aren't looking too spectacular. I mean, Gaudreau put up 44 PTS in 44 GP in his first year in college compared to 18 PTS in 34 GP for Jankowski, and he was just one month older than Jankowski was in his first year at Providence.

And of course, Gaudreau himself improved in his sophomore year with 51 PTS in 35 games. That's an NHL 82 game equivalency of 49 points, by the way (for whatever it's worth).

A bit too simply way of looking at it in my opinion. Gaudreau will be what, 20 pounds heavier and 2 inches taller than he was when he was at 17 by the time he reaches the NHL (if he does)? Jankowski was, reportedly, 5'8'' and 130 pounds when the OHL passed over him, in the last 3 years and the next couple he's going to be close to adding 7 inches and (hopefully) 80+ pounds since then.

Obviously Gaudreau has room to develop, both in skill and strength, but he isn't going through the same development path as Jankowski here. One of Jankowski's assets will be his size, to judge him before he comes close to reaching it is completely unfair. Give him time to physically mature and get use to his new size then pass judgement.

Obviously a good year would be nice, and I would hope he improves, but Jankowski was always expected to be a couple years away from the NHL in part because of his physical development.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Day Tripper

If he puts up anything less than 1 PPG, things aren't looking too spectacular. I mean, Gaudreau put up 44 PTS in 44 GP in his first year in college compared to 18 PTS in 34 GP for Jankowski, and he was just one month older than Jankowski was in his first year at Providence.

And of course, Gaudreau himself improved in his sophomore year with 51 PTS in 35 games. That's an NHL 82 game equivalency of 49 points, by the way (for whatever it's worth).

If that is your expectation you're in for a lot of disappointment. Gaudreau is a special player. Everyone in the college game acknowledges that. He is an exceptional player playing for the best program in the nation. Jankowski plays for a lesser program and in a very structured defensive system. The top point producer for the Friars last season scored 24 points in 38 games. That was from a senior as we. That was .631 PPG to lead the team. I highly doubt anyone on the Friars is going to top that or approach a PPG in the near future. Those are unreasonable expectations, especially when you look at the college game overall.

To add, the Friars only scored 105 goals last season. For comparison, BC scored 25 more.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by Day Tripper

If he puts up anything less than 1 PPG, things aren't looking too spectacular. I mean, Gaudreau put up 44 PTS in 44 GP in his first year in college compared to 18 PTS in 34 GP for Jankowski, and he was just one month older than Jankowski was in his first year at Providence.

And of course, Gaudreau himself improved in his sophomore year with 51 PTS in 35 games. That's an NHL 82 game equivalency of 49 points, by the way (for whatever it's worth).

You also have to take Providence vs Boston College into account. BC is one of the elite NCAA programs that has no problem recruiting the top players. Providence is a defense first program that is way behind the BC program.

Compare Providence last year to


To BC two years ago:

[Anduril]

Despite liking Jankowski as a prospect, he still has much more to prove before being worthy of top 5 in our pool. Went with Sieloff as he's got a similar top end potential as Wotherspoon but more desirable qualities like physicality and leadership.

[GreenLantern]

I thought that Jankowski > Gillies, so I stick with Jankowski for an under rated 5th.

[_Q_]

It was between Wotherspoon and Sieloff for me. In the end I chose Sieloff just because I think he's a unique player in the Flames system. To me Jankowski has much more to prove to be considered a top 5 prospect.

BTW it's Sieloff not Seiloff, ie. his name is mis-spelled in the poll.

[Southside]

Shaping up to be an interesting Round 6 as two top D prospects will go head to head.

[Erick Estrada]

Knight just barely over Jankowski just because he looks NHL ready and by reports does all the little things right you expect of a quality two way center.

[Flames_F.T.W]

While I agree with all the posts about Knight, Wotherspoon and Sieloff, I went with Janko based on his significantly higher ceiling (although he has more potential to bust)

[Red Menace]

I'm a bit surprised by all the votes the D-men are getting....I am on high on them as well, but I think the general consensus of non-biased fans is that our other fwd prospects have more potential (Jankowski, poirier, Klimchuk, Knight, Reinhart, Arnold). I know I'll be voting for all of these fwds before a D gets my vote.
Aren't both Wotherspoon and Sieloff considered maybe a #4 defenceman at best? probably bottom pairing?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I'm a bit surprised by all the votes the D-men are getting....I am on high on them as well, but I think the general consensus of non-biased fans is that our other fwd prospects have more potential (Jankowski, poirier, Klimchuk, Knight, Reinhart, Arnold). I know I'll be voting for all of these fwds before a D gets my vote.
Aren't both Wotherspoon and Sieloff considered maybe a #4 defenceman at best? probably bottom pairing?

Wotherspoon definitely has 2nd pairing potential IMO. He had a tremendous year. Top 4 defencemen are pretty valuable. And at this point he's not much of a question mark, he looks like he'll be a sure fire NHLer. Sieloff I haven't seen enough of to say if he's likely top be a top 4 d-man so ill be voting for him later than Wotherspoon.

At this point it's going to be based on preference. Some people will take a forward with 2nd line potential over a d-men. Others will prefer the d-man. IMO guys like Poirier, Knight, Wotherspoon, Sieloff, Klimchuk and Horak (if he's still considered a prospect) are all fine picks around this range.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

It's clear everyone seems to be voting for potential ceiling, so I guess I'll quit throwing my vote away and do the same

Jankowski.

But if we were voting on NHL readiness, my vote would go to Breen.

[Stupid]

I voted Jankowski but basically only based on 'prospect potential'. I think he's got a higher ceiling lower chance of making it...

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

It's clear everyone seems to be voting for potential ceiling, so I guess I'll quit throwing my vote away and do the same

Jankowski.

But if we were voting on NHL readiness, my vote would go to Breen.

I am voting on potential and odds of reaching that potential. If we went with NHL "readiness", then Horak and Bouma would probably have been selected #2 and #3.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I'm a bit surprised by all the votes the D-men are getting....I am on high on them as well, but I think the general consensus of non-biased fans is that our other fwd prospects have more potential (Jankowski, poirier, Klimchuk, Knight, Reinhart, Arnold). I know I'll be voting for all of these fwds before a D gets my vote.
Aren't both Wotherspoon and Sieloff considered maybe a #4 defenceman at best? probably bottom pairing?

Forwards get the glory, but good d-men on the back end are just as important. If you really value Wotherspoon and Sieloff as bottom pairing d-men then it makes sense to go forwards before them. I see Wotherspoon with potential as a #2, hence why i voted for him.

A #2 d-man is very important and i think this year it will show when the flames put Gio and Wideman, a #3 & #4, out as #1 & #2 to start the year. They are going to get clobbered. Add in that they have no choice but to rush Brodie to #3 and he has no partner that is even remotely worthy of playing #4. Lots of pucks are going to be in the back of the net this season.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

But if we were voting on NHL readiness, my vote would go to Breen.

I think you better get used to the idea of Breen being a career AHLer. The Flames have a crowded blue line right now and it will only get worse as Wotherspoon, Ramage and Sieoff push their way into the mix. Breen may just be the odd man out when these three are added to Brodie, Wideman and Giordano. Add in Butler, Cundari, Russell, Smith, and O'Brien, and Breen is in tough.

[Red Menace]

If Wotherspoon and Sieloff become top 2 or 3 defenceman, I agree they should be placed around this position. I just haven't heard that expectation from anyone outside of this forum.
I certainly hope they make it that far.
Defence is certainly the position we are lacking in. Particularly a top pairing defenceman who can put up 40+ pts and still be effective in his own end.
I haven't heard any expectations that Wotherpoon or Sieloff have that kind of ceiling....both sound like great shutdown d who can be physical....which we certainly need as well.