Value of Draft Picks

[Daliwan]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

I found this on another forum, and thought I should share it with this board. It goes to show how valuable a 1st round pick really is:



Summary:
- A first round selection is far more valuable than any other selection – a player taken in that range has a slightly better than 60% chance of turning out to be a “decent” or better player; nearly three times the rate of the second round.
- Second and third round picks are a cut above the rest of the draft, although the chances of landing a “decent” or better player are quite low: a little better than 1 in 5 for the second round, and slightly better than 1 in 7 for the third round.
- There’s little difference between picks made from the fourth to ninth rounds of the draft; over those rounds players are roughly half as likely to develop into a “decent” or better player as a third round pick.

Full article:
http://canucksarmy.com/2011/3/10/the...nhl-draft-pick

very good info

[TurnedTheCorner]

10 of the players drafted in the first round this year will probably never play 100 games in the NHL for one reason or another. I hope we beat those odds.

[bigpete]

Just for poops and giggles I did a little research and looked up past draft results. If Calgary, St. Louis and Pittsburgh ended up drafting in their current position (based on points/game to date), the Flames would be getting picks # 3, 18, and 29. Since 1995, here are the players who have been drafted at these slots:

1995 Berg, Aki ..... Sykora, Petr ..... Wesenberg, Brian
1996 Dumont, JP ..... Higgins, Matt ..... Ratchuk, Peter
1997 Jokinen, Olli ..... Holmqvist, Michael ..... Barney, Scott
1998 Stuart, Brad ..... Kalinin, Dmitri ..... Van Ryn, Mike
1999 Sedin, Henrik ..... Koltsov, Konstantin ..... Ahoney, Ari
2000 Gaborik, Marian ..... Orpik, Brooks ..... Kronwall, Niklas
2001 Svitov, Alexandr ..... Karlsson, Jens ..... Munro, Adam
2002 Bouwmeester, Jay ..... Grebeshkov, Denis ..... Toivonen, Hannu
2003 Horton, Nathan ..... Fehr, Eric ..... Eaves, Patrick
2004 Barker, Cam ..... Chipchura, Kyle ..... Green, Mike
2005 Johnson, Jack ..... Parent, Ryan ..... Downie, Steve
2006 Toews, Jonathan ..... Stewart, Chris ..... Summers, Chris
2007 Turris, Kyle ..... Cole, Ian ..... O`Brien, Jim
2008 Bogosian, Zach ..... Pickard, Chet ..... Leveille, Daultan
2009 Duchene, Matt ..... Leblanc, Louis ..... Ashton, Carter
2010 Budbranson, Erik ..... Watson, Austin ..... Etem, Emerson
2011 Huberdeau, Jonathan ..... McNeill, Mark ..... Jensen, Nicklas
2012 Galchenyuk, Alex ..... Teravainen, Teuvo ..... Matteau, Stefan

It really surprises me how many busts are picked up with the 18th pick. I would say that Sykora, Orpik, and Stewart are really the only notables in the past 17 years (jury is still out on the last 3 or so years of course). Likewise the 29th pick is almost always a nobody.

That`s why I would be tempted to try to package some picks together to move up higher. Or pray we get a year like 2000 and not one like 2001.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Finner

Hi guys,

I was curious if anyone had done a statistical analysis on NHL draft pick values and I found one that was part of this paper found here:

http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports..._NHL_Draft.pdf

That's a great resource, but this chart needs some refinement. The 66th pick isn't worth more than the 60th, regardless of how 66th picks have done compared to 60th picks. For actual values, you'd have to smooth out the statistical anomalies like that.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by SebC

That's a great resource, but this chart needs some refinement. The 66th pick isn't worth more than the 60th, regardless of how 66th picks have done compared to 60th picks. For actual values, you'd have to smooth out the statistical anomalies like that.

It is a great resource, and I am sure this is statistically insignificant. 2 in a thousand. This looks like a respectable model.