How long until we are competitive and an outsiders view on things

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by blankall

There are other ways to build a team. It's great to have a steady set of prospects moving up through your ranks, but many of the recent cup winners have been led by free agent or trade acquisitions.

The idea you can only build through the draft is equally as harming as the idea that you can only build via trade/FAs. It's all about asset management as a whole.

If you don't draft well then you don't have the support cast or assetts to put a team together with free agents, I agree that there is more than one way to build a winner, but all winners have relied on good drafting to enable what ever other plan to work.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

I think that if rebuilding through the draft the average time is 3-4 years at a minimum. Right now the Flames have some good prospects but there are still some gaps that exist and there are a number of question marks that surround any prospect. Look at a team like the Oilers and they are struggling just to make the playoffs after three years of rebuilding.

The fact is the writing has been on the wall for a few years and now it is starting to be realized by more and more of the fanbase.

[Sakari]

Probably 2-3 years before we are contenders. I sound a bit over the top, but with Janko, Gaudreau, Baertschi, Wotherspoon, Gillies, Brossoit, Reinhart, the guys we got from Pitt, coming up, with 2 first round picks in this years draft, with Cervenka developing into what appears to be a good NHL center, with Ramo, with all these players that will surely be NHL worthy players, it'd be one hell of a crash to NOT make the playoffs and contend for the cup. Not to mention players like Brodie and Backlund.

[calgARI]

Feaster isn't the guy to run a rebuild so as long as he's running the show, I think it could be a very long time.

Brian Burke successfully rebuilt two franchises over the last 15 years and won a cup with the other. Get him in ASAP.

[Bourque's Twin]

Assuming the Flames choose Jones, Mackinnon, Drouin, or Barkov, how long will it take for them to make a significant impact?

Our current prospects (my predictions based on spec)
Brodie - 1 - 2 years away from being very steady
Backlund - today he looks like a 3rd line centre on a good team, maybe a 2nd line centre in 1- 2 years? Potential 60-point player in 2 - 3 years?
Jankowski - He's probably 3 - 4 years away from the NHL and maybe 5 - 6 from being an impact player
Gudreau - 3 - 4 years away from the NHL
Baertschi - 2 years away from being an impact player
Reinhart - Still needs AHL time. 3 years from being a regular on the NHL squad.
Horak - Potential to be a 3rd/2nd liner. 2 - 3 years away?

Based on what I see, the Flames are at least 3 years away from being competitive.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by calgARI

Feaster isn't the guy to run a rebuild so as long as he's running the show, I think it could be a very long time.

Brian Burke successfully rebuilt two franchises over the last 15 years and won a cup with the other. Get him in ASAP.

That's all I'm hoping for. If that happens, I'll have good faith in there being light at the end of the tunnel. Otherwise this has potential to turn into a Oilers/Islanders/BJs rebuild.

[nik-]

I think 3 years before we start pushing to the playoffs again, 5 or so before we're truly competitive.

[djsFlames]

I think we'll have better veteran pieces in place to compliment / mentor the young kids coming up than Edmonton currently has. (including Gio, Tanguay and Hudler) My hunch is it won't take us nearly as long. I just don't see two fails of similar epic proportions happening in neighboring cities.

The Oil never had as many valuable 2nd line type forwards to sell than we currently have, which we should easily be able to dish for 1st round picks and higher end prospects. If they do the rest of the trades RIGHT, we could stock up on a really good pile of picks and respectable prospects, and potentially right the ship in one "swoop", per say.

I think we'll have 3 first round picks this year. Something like the 3rd, 18th, 28th (probably 30th yeah..) With how deep and talented this draft is - analysts saying its similar to 2003, and could possess more late 1st rounders and 2nd rounders with ability to turn into productive, high end players than other years. This could bode well for us, and I think 2 of our 3 picks could turn into "core" type players in the next couple years.

I think we see playoffs in spring 2016 as a mid-lower seed. I also believe Gilles will be one of our regular goaltenders at that time. I think he's going to be very, very good.

[Sakari]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Assuming the Flames choose Jones, Mackinnon, Drouin, or Barkov, how long will it take for them to make a significant impact?

Our current prospects (my predictions based on spec)
Brodie - 1 - 2 years away from being very steady
Backlund - today he looks like a 3rd line centre on a good team, maybe a 2nd line centre in 1- 2 years? Potential 60-point player in 2 - 3 years?
Jankowski - He's probably 3 - 4 years away from the NHL and maybe 5 - 6 from being an impact player
Gudreau - 3 - 4 years away from the NHL
Baertschi - 2 years away from being an impact player
Reinhart - Still needs AHL time. 3 years from being a regular on the NHL squad.
Horak - Potential to be a 3rd/2nd liner. 2 - 3 years away?

Based on what I see, the Flames are at least 3 years away from being competitive.

You missed some people. And I don't think Gaudreau is 4 years away from being in the NHL. He's 19, he'd probably crack the AHL lineup next year or the one after. Brodie is already steady for the most part, he's had a bit of a bumpy road this year but so have all of our defenseman minus Bouwmeester. Jankowski isn't 6 years away from being an impact player. He's 18. If he's going to do anything for this team, it'll be before he's 24.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by calgARI

Brian Burke successfully rebuilt two franchises over the last 15 years and won a cup with the other. Get him in ASAP.

I'd be a lot more confident in this team with him at the helm overall, but I'd love having him going into the last few days of this trade deadline. There are some hugely consequential decisions coming up really quickly, and I'm just not sure Feaster is a guy who pushes hard enough.

[Enoch Root]

I think getting a top 4 this year would shorten the term.

I also expect the FLames to draft top 2 next year and it looks like that would mean another really good player.

If both those things happen, I could see the team start threatening for the playoffs after three years.

Another key that will determine the length of the misery is: how quick does one of the young goalies step up?

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Sakari

You missed some people. And I don't think Gaudreau is 4 years away from being in the NHL. He's 19, he'd probably crack the AHL lineup next year or the one after. Brodie is already steady for the most part, he's had a bit of a bumpy road this year but so have all of our defenseman minus Bouwmeester. Jankowski isn't 6 years away from being an impact player. He's 18. If he's going to do anything for this team, it'll be before he's 24.

His numbers are pretty accurate in my opinion and likely a better scenario for prospect development. Gaudreau is still playing college next year, give him a couple of years in the AHL to develop playing against better talent with a more rigorous schedule and then ease him into the NHL in 3-4 years. From what I have seen he will be a very good player but the guy is also very slight and the increased physicality from college to professional hockey may result in some growing pains.

Jankowski is the same thing - he could be a great player (I haven't seen him so I don't know) but to expect someone to be an impact player right away is putting to much pressure on a young player to excel immediately. Look at Backlund he is doing so (sort of) now at 24 years old and that is a pretty common career trajectory for someone drafted in the 20-30 range.

[djsFlames]

Yeah, just because Jankowski was drafted when he was still 17 doesn't mean it'll take him 7 years to develop. He's a 6'3" center, he's not a wimpy kid that needs to add 5 inches and 50 pounds in order to even begin to compete. I'd say 2-3 years away, 4 tops.

[FlamesAddiction]

3 years to make the playoffs and 5 years to be a contender (if we build right) starting from next season.

And I agree with CalgARI that Feaster is not the one to do it. I also don't think Feaster wants to.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I can see us back in the playoffs in 3 years... the parity in this league means it probably won't take you half a decade to get back on track. And I'm sure I have my homer glasses on, but I do like where are going with Sven, Backlund, Brodie, Gaudreau, Horak, Jankowski, Gillies etc. We just need more of these guys. More is more.

The biggest holes are of course a #1 center prospect, and a #1 dman prospect, but hopefully this years draft addresses one of them... and we'll probably have the next year or two to address the other.

Most of the guys you listed are getting to the age where they can contribute. As are the 2 new guys. Good thing about these NCAA players is once they are out of college, they are a lot more developed than a guy fresh out of junior.

The key is getting a system and the right players who can do a better job of keeping the puck out of our own net though.

[FurnaceFace]

The difference to me between the two deals is one had a guaranteed 1st and the other conditional. We ended up getting the guaranteed pick. That's the best deal in my mind.

Rebuilding will depend on what happens over the next week and into the draft. Should we be "fortunate" to get a top 2 pick we end up with a blue chip prospect and hopefully the 30th pick which will give us all a feel good moment for Iginla and a decent prospect too. If there are further moves we may be able to collect more picks or some top 6 prospects.

I think the Oilers experiment is a painful one but there is promise and hope for the future which is something Flames fans would like to see more of. I think The Flames could learn from what's going on up north and make some other choices. Goaltending and defense haven't been strong for the grease. Learn from that, and combine that from the lessons over the past few years where building up the middle is key.

[Red_Baron]

2020-2021 is my prediction. We have drafted some "skill" but after a couple years of failure we'll realize that we need some "size" to go with it in order to compete. We'll have to draft and develop that as well.

[Caged Great]

The Flames will probably not be a good team for a year or two, in a similar position to where we are now.

The reason why I want a clearing out of the players that we have now is that we can get a whole bunch of prospects and build up some organizational depth for a change.

We can add some veterans through UFA like Filppula etc while we wait for the younger players to take over.

[OzSome]

Without Iggy in the lineup, I'll say we will see the YOUNG GUNS - Part Deux for a few years. I love Baertschi but he hasn't shown he is ready for the big league yet. Johnny Gaudreau and Bill Arnold will probably not going to be with the Flames soon yet, while Jankowski is still years away. I am not sure Cammy, Hudler and Tanguay can handle all the double-teaming by other teams, they way Iginla did. We still don't have the first line centre. I am not even sure Cervenka will be here next season. I am kind of dissapointed that the coaching staff are not willing to let Roman show what he can do as a centre. Backlund might improve but i think he will be another Matthew Lombardi, lots of potential but couldn't deliver much. He is still young so I am hoping he gets better when he matures and I think that would take a few years. So in other words, be prepare to get a lot of headaches in the next few years.

[I_H8_Crawford]

One factor to consider is the special circumstances of this coming off-season, RE: Compliance buy-outs and the cap reduction thanks to the new CBA...

IF (and this is a massive IF) the Flames play their cards right, they could potentially accelerate the amount of time it takes to become a competitive team again by making the proper asset moves, and utilizing leverage against teams that are in cap trouble.

Of all the seasons to tank, this is certainly one of the more interesting ones we will see IMO.