[OOT] March 18, six games.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

only just turned 23, think he has a somewhat decent chance at catching Gretzky

for career goals? Not a chance, IMO, no.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

for career goals? Not a chance, IMO, no.

It's only 46 goals per season for the next 15 seasons. Pffft aint nuthin

[d_phaneuf]

he's 694 behind

over the last 3 seasons Stamkos has been healthy and averaged 0.645 goals per game

over 82 games that's 53 per season

assuming he finishes this year at that pace (puts him at 214) and averages 53 over the next 8 seasons (taking him to 31)

puts him at 638

would only need 256 goals from 31 till the end of his career

he needs to stay healthy clearly and it's a longshot, but he has as good a chance as anyone

his fitness is never going to be an issue, he's getting better, I could see a few 60+ goal seasons the next few years

[nik-]

Technically possible, but improbable. Even Gretzky needed 20 years and seasons of 92, 87, 71 and 73 goals to get his numbers. Not going to happen with modern goalies.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Brett Hull and Mike Bossy were some good goal scorers. The blend of opportunity and finish, plus longevity, required to reach Gretzky numbers eluded both of them. It really takes something special.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Brett Hull and Mike Bossy were some good goal scorers. The blend of opportunity and finish, plus longevity, required to reach Gretzky numbers eluded both of them. It really takes something special.

Gretzkys numbers will never be matched.

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by Dion

Gretzkys numbers will never be matched.

You never know. I bet back when Gordie Howe retired people where saying nobody would match his numbers as well. Gretzky's numbers do seem like they are impossible to touch but later on somebody might come in and do it. But that's obviously not going to happen for a looong time. Records are made to be broken.

[AR_Six]

Gretzky's numbers will never be matched. This is not the same game as in the 80's. He was an otherworldly talent who was in the game at exactly the right time to pump up his numbers. The volume of rule changes that would be needed to permit for that kind of scoring... never going to happen.

[Sylvanfan]

I think the players are too good nowadays to let one player dominate to that extent for extended periods of time. Let's not forget that not even 3 years ago Ovechkin had just scored 50+ goals for the 4th time in 5 seasons and had 269 career goals in 396 career games which is 0.68 goals per game. Since than he has 81 in his next 185. Gretzky had a stretch where he scored 323 goals in 314 games....that pretty much makes his goals record one of the hardest records to break in hockey.

[Table 5]

Never is a really long time. At some point, all records are broken if you give it enough time. However, for anyone to even come close, a real magic scenario has to come together all at the right time. One of uperstar skill, superstar linemates, perfect timing into terms of league play, level of opposition etc.

I don't see it happening for Stamkos, or anyone at the moment, but you never know. The NHL could go on for hundreds of years....

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think the players are too good nowadays to let one player dominate to that extent for extended periods of time. Let's not forget that not even 3 years ago Ovechkin had just scored 50+ goals for the 4th time in 5 seasons and had 269 career goals in 396 career games which is 0.68 goals per game. Since than he has 81 in his next 185. Gretzky had a stretch where he scored 323 goals in 314 games....that pretty much makes his goals record one of the hardest records to break in hockey.

Personally I believe the 80's were a little out of whack as far as offensive statistics were concerned because the talent base was better, bigger with the WHA merging and the goaltenders were still small men wearing small equipment. The game has really changed since the 80's and I don't ever see a reversal to that high scoring decade.

The goaltenders are bigger, faster, better, the defensemen are bigger, faster better, the checking forwards are bigger, faster, and better. Simply far less room on the ice to operate and score goals. Coaches have hours of video to scout and defensive systems designed to shut down offense and take away what teams do well. I don't think we will ever see Gretzky's numbers approached unless there are major rule changes or an all-time supreme talent enters the league.