Peak oil.....this play is tight

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by macker

Saudi America is a term I lifted from Phillip Verleger......http://www.pkverlegerllc.com/ So yep......I meant what I said. With America having all this new oil it will impact things globally and locally......http://business.financialpost.com/20...ojects-report/ Add the Russian fields and horizontal completion and the term Peak Oil is laughable.

Ok, that's not exactly a standard usage, but fair enough. Currently the US is producing 6.2 mmboe/d, and importing 8.8 mmboe/d, according to the US EIA. http://205.254.135.7/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html

Iran exports ~2.5 mmboe/d (http://www.indexmundi.com/iran/oil_exports.html) so for the US net exports to exceed Iran's they'd have to produce approximately 17.5 mmboe/d, or not quite triple their current production. I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen in the next 18 years, since that's pretty close to the total of what Russia and Saudi Arabia are currently producing.

[macker]

Originally Posted by HPLovecraft

Are you saying we've reached . . . peak gas?!

As far as gas goes I read a report earlier this year that for the first time ever the US is a net exporter of gas due to the superior refinery technologies. The US has nat gas reserves that are 3 times that of the Saudis oil reserves. 70% of US oil use is for transportation.....just switch fuels.

The Bakken changes the whole balance of oil by 2-3 million barrels per day and it is light sweet....Lots of both......The US just needs to switch fuels as 70% of oil use is for transporation. With the new technologies being used there is lots of both though....

[macker]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Ok, that's not exactly a standard usage, but fair enough. Currently the US is producing 6.2 mmboe/d, and importing 8.8 mmboe/d, according to the US EIA. http://205.254.135.7/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html

Iran exports ~2.5 mmboe/d (http://www.indexmundi.com/iran/oil_exports.html) so for the US net exports to exceed Iran's they'd have to produce approximately 17.5 mmboe/d, or not quite triple their current production. I'm pretty sure that's not going to happen in the next 18 years, since that's pretty close to the total of what Russia and Saudi Arabia are currently producing.

I would wager a billion bakken barrels on this.....

[GP_Matt]

I would like a piece of that action.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

I would like a piece of that action.

Yeah, I'd be up for a bet the US isn't producing 18 million barrels of oil a day in 2020. I'd prefer a futures type arrangement, because I'd like to cash in when it's obvious I've won in a couple of years, as opposed to waiting until 2020 to cash in.

[flamesfever]

For those interested, there is a good article in the Business section of the Calgary Herald, by Deborah Yedlin, which outlines the various factors, coming into play, with regard to the future oil price.

I really enjoy and appreciate her articles.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Thor

lol true, but for my truck its $200 to fill it, and I go through that in 2-3 weeks.

That's pretty good. I spend about $150 on fuel a week here, and I have what is considered a "short commute".

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by fotze

What I take away from it all is that MAYBE the smartest most influential people in the world can maybe kinda predict what the prices will do.....and if, in fact they can, they would never let us in on it. So its pointless to try and predict it.

I agree, but it's always nice to think you have some form of reasoning for making predictions, even though with human nature, and chance happenings, being what they are, we both know it's impossible to predict
with any degree of accuracy.

For a long time, we used to think oil would stay around $18.00 forever. However, with inflation and the printing of money, the relative value of everything, over the last decades, has increased by factor of 3 to 4 times. So, on that basis, oil at $80.00 is probably not too unreasonable, considering the speculation element has probably been removed recently with the risky world economic environment.

My gut tells me that, as time goes on, even the natural gas price will eventually get closer to the value of oil, on a BTU basis. However , it will probably take a long time before the various newer technologies work their way through the system, the transportation networks are established, etc. and the markets stabilize.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by fotze

What I take away from it all is that MAYBE the smartest most influential people in the world can maybe kinda predict what the prices will do.....and if, in fact they can, they would never let us in on it. So its pointless to try and predict it.

That's not true. Stacey is one of such people and already shared with us that mortgages will be over 3.9% in 5 years.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by macker

Not sure what you are trying to guess that I am getting at but about gas prices......they have peaked for the year imo. Doesn't hurt that the passive investor has been knocked out of the market so that you don't have trading banks like JP Morgan doing what they were doing in 2009 playing with Contango and sitting on 30-40 million barrels of oil. Takes two to Contango....

What do you mean by playing with contango?

[macker]

Originally Posted by Flames in 07

What do you mean by playing with contango?

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/...#axzz1yJ1eAL5M

Opposite of backwardation and both sound like ballroom dances

[stacey]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

That's not true. Stacey is one of such people and already shared with us that mortgages will be over 3.9% in 5 years.

Well lets wait and see if you can predict the future Nostradamus...

I'd love to know what "night manager in charge of cat toys" job you actually are employed at that lends itself to your economic expertise...

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by stacey

Well lets wait and see if you can predict the future Nostradamus...

I'd love to know what "night manager in charge of cat toys" job you actually are employed at that lends itself to your economic expertise...

You're still pissed you can't understand how the bond market works, huh?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

You're still pissed you can't understand how the bond market works, huh?

Did I miss a discussion on CP of bond prices moving inversely to rates or how longer duration, lower coupon bonds are more interest rate sensitive somewhere on CP or something? When has the bond market ever come up...?!?!

[Barnes]

This thread is no longer about tight oil in Russia.

[Flames in 07]

Originally Posted by macker

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/...#axzz1yJ1eAL5M

Opposite of backwardation and both sound like ballroom dances

What I mean specifically was what do you mean by playing? You mean simply storing crude? If so I don't see what the big deal is.