Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
While the NDP and Liberals may hate each other, we know they hate Harper more. I suspect if their options are fight each other and Harper wins or band together to give the best option to eliminate Harper, that they'll swallow their pride to make it happen. I do think the Liberal brand is weak right now, but it obviously has more national appeal than the NDP brand, which is essentially stuck with union heavy BC and Quebec.
I also think if the Conservatives win again, it won't be a majority, and how can you justify keeping a leader who lost a majority they likely won't get back again? Other than the conservatives have no one better? So I think barring a miracle majority repeat for Harper, he'll be done as PM either way.
|
the only reason why there was ever talk of a "merger" was in the face of a minority government. There will never be a permanent merger of the left because the Liberals won't allow it because currently they and their brand would be devoured and too many of the old school liberals would immediately start their own brand. The NDP would only do it conditional on the NDP being the dominant entity in any arrangement.
And trust me when I say, as much as the NDP and Liberal;s hate the convervatives, they hate each other even more. the Liberal's still see themselves as the natural ruling party and they also strongly believe that they will eventually return to prominance based on their name recogintion alone. They also look at the NDP as a fluke and a freak etreme far left brand that they don't share any common ground with.
The NDP knows that they need to strike while they have momentum. Deep down they have to know that their win in the last election is more an one time thing then a on going fact.
Even then, in the next election the centrist Liberal voters probably won't vote for the NDP again. they got their protest out, and realized that the NDP without LAyton is not as attractive.
I would think that there is a vote shift coming on the left side if the NDP can't shut Mulcair up. But no matter what crazy Tom is there in the next election. Chances are Bob Rae will be there in the next election because neither party has aa strong up and coming leadership candidate in their bullpen.
Frankly nobody with Prime Minister desires is going to run for the Liberal's leadership until the Liberal party completely re-invents itself and then takes a few years to regain the faith of the Canadian voters. In order to do that they are going to have to vote out Rae at the next leadership convention, and probably flush out a lot of the old guard.
Now that the NDP is the main enemy of the Conservatives there will be a concentrated effort by Harper and his party to go after them especially the inexperienced winners in the NDP east who seem to have vanished from the lime light.
Unless something radically changes I see a smaller majority for Harper in the next election but a majority non the less.
Mulcair has already given Harper a ton of ammo, and Mulcair is no LAyton in terms of debating skills and in terms of charm, so unless they give Tom a pair of crutches I think the NDP is going to realize that he was simply a bad choice following Jack.
Bob Rae in a campaign could be a disaster especially with the huge dislike for the man in Ontario. Which in a way is to bad because Rae is very camera friendly, well spoken and does have some charisma. He's also a opportunist.
I know that the grooming of Trudeau continues. But I think he's an arrogant pr1ck who lacks the charm and intelligence of his old man. I also think that a Trudeau lead Liberal party wouldn't get a vote east of Quebec or West of Ontario, and they would probably do even worse in Quebec.
I would think that the Conservatives will push very hard for a majority for Harper who would then start positioning his heir apparent during that term. Then at the end of that term Harper would walk into the Sunset.
