Analysts Predict AAPL Stock to Hit $1000; Market Cap to hit 1 Trillion in 1-2 Years

[GGG]

I think one big question is that are the 3 million Ipads being sold to new or existing customers. I suspect alot of those are new customers entering the tablet market. The problem is that most people might only replace tech every 3 years or so so once the initial market is saturated the opportunity for growth is limited to increasing market share.

The smart phone market is almost saturated, the tablet market is well on its way to being saturated. So what is going to drive this new growth.

Just look at ipod sales which have fallen significantly the last 2 years because thy hve reached maturity and are being replaced by other devices. So if apple doesnt come out with the next thing there is little more expansion that they can do in the current product line

[Azure]

It all depends on what they do with the Apple TV. If it is as innovative as the rumors say it will be, a trillion dollar market cap isn't crazy at all.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think one big question is that are the 3 million Ipads being sold to new or existing customers. I suspect alot of those are new customers entering the tablet market. The problem is that most people might only replace tech every 3 years or so so once the initial market is saturated the opportunity for growth is limited to increasing market share.

The smart phone market is almost saturated, the tablet market is well on its way to being saturated. So what is going to drive this new growth.

Just look at ipod sales which have fallen significantly the last 2 years because thy hve reached maturity and are being replaced by other devices. So if apple doesnt come out with the next thing there is little more expansion that they can do in the current product line

Smart phones have not saturated, in fact, they are one of the things that make analysts think will push APPL to $1T.

Intel, I know, designs their products to last 18-24 months. Though not confirmed, I'm told AMD follows a similiar line of thinking. Most in the industry expect products to be replaced every 3 years, and thats how a lot of companies make decisions.

[HotHotHeat]

How has this thread gone 25 posts without mentioning China or India?

You think Apple has popularity here? The international markets are an untapped goldmine for this company. People love the brand, and are apparently willing to spend their last dollar on having sometime made by them.

It's sorta insane.

[Azure]

Isn't Samsung outperforming Apple like crazy in China?

[Kybosh]

I think I remember Apple products being even more expensive in China when I was there. Apple products almost seem to be a status symbol there. People I spoke with were convinced they were buying American products no matter how I tried to convince them that it was built in China. Considering the average salary in China is waaaaay lower than Canada, the prevalence of Apple products is amazing.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

How has this thread gone 25 posts without mentioning China or India?

You think Apple has popularity here? The international markets are an untapped goldmine for this company. People love the brand, and are apparently willing to spend their last dollar on having sometime made by them.

It's sorta insane.

Yup thats exactly how analysts come to the $1T mark... thus that is why smartphones are not considered a saturated market at all.

Their suppliers seem to agree as well

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by silentsim

Never realized selling 3 million tablets in 3 days was "stale".

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012...e-Million.html

Budweiser's the highest selling beer in America but it's still stale and undrinkable to some people.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

How has this thread gone 25 posts without mentioning China or India?

You think Apple has popularity here? The international markets are an untapped goldmine for this company. People love the brand, and are apparently willing to spend their last dollar on having sometime made by them.

It's sorta insane.

The BRIC countries are kind of a joke, the vast majority of the population isn't even out of poverty, let alone buying $500 smartphones and tablets.

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

The BRIC countries are kind of a joke, the vast majority of the population isn't even out of poverty, let alone buying $500 smartphones and tablets.

In countries with a billion people, you only need 10% of the population to have an income capable of buying these things to make it attractive.

[Lt.Spears]

Originally Posted by silentsim

Never realized selling 3 million tablets in 3 days was "stale".

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2012...e-Million.html

Right now they completely own the tablet market, but their phones are losing market share to alternatives like Android.

Almost all of apples value is derived from their hold on consumerism. Most people buy Apple products thinking it's the best and most innovative when in fact they are usually behind the curve. I just don't see how that is a model to support long term success. Apples competitors are gaining ground.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by 3 Justin 3

Were people as brainwashed as they are today towards Apple as they were back then towards Microsoft?

I am not a Apple fanboy nor a hater, but you can't deny how powerful their consumer base is. Every time I just peak into their Apple Store, even on a Tuesday at 1:30 it is packed. Until the trend changes, which I don't think it will, Apple will just continue to grow.

Right, the trend will continue right up until it stops. And we all know technology trends go on forever.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Right, the trend will continue right up until it stops. And we all know technology trends go on forever.

At this point, certainly in the BRIC countries, Apple is developing as a powerful status symbol and that has an extra bit of cache over normal technological goods when the rich and poor both aspire to be seen with your product along with their genuine or imitation Louis Vuitton handbags.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by fotze

There has to be a top side to the stock though, just has to.

Lies! There is no limit - Buy now! Or be priced out forever!


Seriously though, I don't have the market share numbers handy but certainly market share is an interesting discussion. There always seems to be the comparison of android vs. apple (for obvious reasons). But the android slice is made up of so many different companies; and the associated fragmentation spread.

I kinda feel like it's the comparison last year after the 2011 election. The Cons got 40% and people starting making noise about how "60% - a majority of Canadians didn't vote for them". Of course, that 60% was spread out over a relatively small number of other parties. With phones/tablets, if your 3 models have 40% of the market and the other 60% is spread out over 100's of other models, you're probably doing alright.

Additionally, if you look at the actual sales numbers (under data and references) - sales from every quarter roughly doubled (or more) from the previous year in numbers of iphone sales. Every year with the exception of Q4 2011 when everybody was waiting for the 4S.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IP...ter_simple.svg

On top of that, they're taking 80% of all profits from the phone market even though they make up less than 10% of it. That is crazy. Sure other models/companies have market share but they're not making much money on it. If memory serves I think their profit margin has actually increased over time as well.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57...phone-profits/

It's like the Playbook finally taking some market share from the iPad because they finally managed to sell over a million of them over the course of a year. But in order to do that, they had to cut the price to the point where they were losing money on it. Sure that is marketshare but not a sustainable business model or something investors want a piece of.

Anyhow, just thinking out loud this morning. Sorry for the random rambling.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Additionally, if you look at the actual sales numbers (under data and references) - sales from every quarter roughly doubled (or more) from the previous year in numbers of iphone sales. Every year with the exception of Q4 2011 when everybody was waiting for the 4S.

Which is precisely why they can't grow at this rate forever. Your link showed 72 million iphones in 2011. If they sell ~140 million in 2012, ~280 million in 2013, ~560 million in 2014, and then over a billion in 2015.

That's basically impossible, since it would require every 2nd person on earth to purchase a new iPhone every 3 years.

I'm not saying Apple isn't a great company with good products and huge consumer cachet. But everything hits a practical limit at some point.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

That's basically impossible, since it would require every 2nd person on earth to purchase a new iPhone every 3 years.

I'm not saying Apple isn't a great company with good products and huge consumer cachet. But everything hits a practical limit at some point.

Oh yeah, I don't disagree at all - just thinking out loud.

EDIT: I'm not trying to imply that I think the company will grow without limits (that's just silly.) But if they have less than 10% of all mobile phone sales right now, and the iPad continues to dominate and grow in sales (with essentially have no viable competitors) - it seems like a realistic possibility of at least some measure of continued growth in the near term. Of course ignoring the upcoming tv and car tie ins & who knows what else in the future.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by 3 Justin 3

Every time I just peak into their Apple Store, even on a Tuesday at 1:30 it is packed.

That's just people like me who's iPhones stopped working properly 1 year and 1 month in seeing if they can get anything done about it.

[GP_Matt]

How long until Apple gets hit with some anti-trust rules though?
Microsoft got slapped pretty hare in Europe for pre-loading programs like Internet Explorer on Windows. With Apple you are stuck to use only their software and you can only buy apps through their store. At some point I can foresee the EU deciding that Apple is being uncompetitive and forcing them to open their hardware up to third party software bypassing the App store. It won't happen to a small company but as your market share grows you become a target for this kind of stuff.

[Lt.Spears]

Originally Posted by GP_Matt

How long until Apple gets hit with some anti-trust rules though?
Microsoft got slapped pretty hare in Europe for pre-loading programs like Internet Explorer on Windows. With Apple you are stuck to use only their software and you can only buy apps through their store. At some point I can foresee the EU deciding that Apple is being uncompetitive and forcing them to open their hardware up to third party software bypassing the App store. It won't happen to a small company but as your market share grows you become a target for this kind of stuff.

They already stated that all docking ports on phones need to be of a standardized kind.

Apple has plans to release its own, new docking port on their next gen devices blatantly going against the EU ruling.

[silentsim]

Originally Posted by Lt.Spears

They already stated that all docking ports on phones need to be of a standardized kind.

Apple has plans to release its own, new docking port on their next gen devices blatantly going against the EU ruling.

I believe Apple created a Dock Connector to Micro USB adapter which satisfies the EU rules. http://www.gizmag.com/apple-iphone-m...adapter/20094/