Terrible Story, North Korean Son Sent Own Mother To Death

[Ozy_Flame]

^^ That's the news piece, if not the exact news article I was thinking of.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Iraq was the perfect place for American armored strategy and mobility, I completely agree with you there and yes the NK conventional armed forces especially in their current numbers are a huge issue, but I'm saying they may not be as disciplined or well equipped as a few decades ago despite influx of semi-new equipment from China and Russia.

I've read a few defector reports in the last two years and all those accounts tell of soldiers who are starving, discipline breaking down soldiers taking at from the normal citizenry at gunpoint because of lack of supplies.
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/nort...09700315F.HTML

More than half of Korea's conventional forces use equipment designed in the 1960s, IISS believes that a big bulk of their conventional forces will be non-functional due to lack of parts and supplies
http://www.iiss.org/publications/str...e-on-the-kore/
While they might be scraping enough foreign reserves to buy arms from China and Russia, they still rely on tanks like the P'okpoong and T-62s which according to Jane's lack thermal imaging equipment and modern laser rangefinders... huge disadvantage there.

Fuel shortages from their airforce, a little old but that's from what I remembered.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/200...orth-Korea.htm
I remember Jane's saying that the average Korean Airforce pilot, along with being forced to fly mostly Korean war era planes, get only roughly 25 hours of flight time a year due to fuel shortages. I'll look for the articles later when I get home.

Granted an army that size will do huge amounts of damage and the death toll to do anything about them would be enormous, I was just pointing out they are may or may not in the best state in terms of morale, material and discipline.

I don't know if I can disagree with you or not.

But to add on

This is a little older from 2003 and plays out the North Korean side of things. One of the terms used in here is Political will

I think its a little exagerated in terms of North Korean capabilities but this gentleman is in South Korean intelligence

http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm


A breakdown of the NK military equiptment wise from Global Security

(usually these guys are very accurate)

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/dprk/

North Korean military strength

http://www.globalfirepower.com/count...id=North-Korea

From my understanding the P'okpoong is their main battle tank, based loosely on the very good Soviet T-90 tank. The number of these tanks they have is pretty much open to speculation, but right now its estimated that North Korea has about 2000 tanks, so they would vastly outnumber American armor.

More on NK's strength

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread634350/pg1

As much as America has technological superiority, the numbers game in terms of ground armor, artillary and general infantry does not favor an American invasion unless your willing to take massive casualties.

You'd almost need a 10 to 1 kill multiplier per soldier/tank and aircraft.

You'd have a tough time with North Korean anti-air as most of their assets are extremely mobile or based around the massive use of man portable weapons.

The American navy would probably smash North Korea's navy in a matter of days, North Korea has about 70 subs but they're of the cold war variety and wouldn't really hamper the U.S. Navy

The American's/South Koreans would establish air superiority, however I firmly believe that American losses would be grievous. As obsolete as it is, the U.S. Navy/Airforce got a free pass in Iraq that they won't get here. They will be fighting through up to a thousand aircraft and thousands of ground to air missiles and guns, it will be bloody.

On the ground the American's have a technology advantage and even a training advantage in every way. But the North Korean's have the numbers, they have armored vehicles and tanks built specifically for their terrain, they would have a fairly massive manpower advantage, and Artillary at the start of the war would be the great equalizer.

North Korea would also seek to remove South Korea from the battlefield by sending most of the special forces south to cause massive havok through terrorist attacks and assasinations.

A war against North Korea, wouldn't be quick, you''d probably be dealilng with a worse insurgency then you dealt with in the middle east due to 800,000 North Korea reservists being utilized.

would America have the political will to absorb 10's of thousands of losses very quickly, of course the casualty count would reduce quickly as the American's peeled back North Korea's technology, but then you would also get into a similar type of war that America faced in Vietnam.

[Lt.Spears]

The main problem is the collatoral damage that would result from this, like someone else said, Seoul would basically be rubble in 15 minutes if anything ever happened.

I cant imagine being the person who would order an attack knowing that the repercussions would be massive and would result in millions of South Korean deaths.

Unfortunately the only people who can make a change are the Chinese and the North Koreans themselves.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

would America have the political will to absorb 10's of thousands of losses very quickly, of course the casualty count would reduce quickly as the American's peeled back North Korea's technology, but then you would also get into a similar type of war that America faced in Vietnam.

I wonder if that would happen though. Vietnam happened because of Soviet support for the Vietnamese with material, training and planning support. NK has realistically little to no support from China/Russia or anyone for that matter due to their self imposed isolationist policy implemented by the Fatty Kim. In a war, all things being equal the side that's better supplied and with more ammo tends to win. Iraq had their Islamist/Al Qaeda funding, Vietnam had the Soviets, who does NK have?

Mind you all we are discussing are based on hypothetical, what ifs and second hand intelligence reports/analysis. Hopefully it never comes to anything violent or Seoul will be a steaming pile of slag.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

I wonder if that would happen though. Vietnam happened because of Soviet support for the Vietnamese with material, training and planning support. NK has realistically little to no support from China/Russia or anyone for that matter due to their self imposed isolationist policy implemented by the Fatty Kim. In a war, all things being equal the side that's better supplied and with more ammo tends to win. Iraq had their Islamist/Al Qaeda funding, Vietnam had the Soviets, who does NK have?

Mind you all we are discussing are based on hypothetical, what ifs and second hand intelligence reports/analysis. Hopefully it never comes to anything violent or Seoul will be a steaming pile of slag.

I think you would see a very similar situation to what we saw in the first Korean war (That's right I said war, do you want to fight about it?)

China wouldn't tolerate the American's pushing up into one of their client countries no matter how much they dislike them. China basically views North Korea as a Sop against having American's and South Korean's right on their border.

You would probably also see Volunteer Chinese airmen and submariners if the war went badly for North Korea.



If the American's were to attack they would probably have to take that whole country, I'm pretty sure that China would define a line of death at Pyongyang and mass troops in the Northern Part of the country.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Lt.Spears

The main problem is the collatoral damage that would result from this, like someone else said, Seoul would basically be rubble in 15 minutes if anything ever happened.

I cant imagine being the person who would order an attack knowing that the repercussions would be massive and would result in millions of South Korean deaths.

Unfortunately the only people who can make a change are the Chinese and the North Koreans themselves.

You are basing this on a rational modern person's moral standard. Years of backwards communist era indoctrination would probably have messed with their thinking quite a bit. How else do you get Soviet level death/work camps where people have no problems turning on their own parents?

I'm not sure a person, sufficiently brainwashed, would give a second thought to pushing the button.

[CaptainCrunch]

Add to that, (sorry I'm getting carried away here) I have no doubt that North Korea would dip into their supplies of chemical weapons to blunt a Ameican attack.

[Lt.Spears]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

You are basing this on a rational modern person's moral standard. Years of backwards communist era indoctrination would probably have messed with their thinking quite a bit. How else do you get Soviet level death/work camps where people have no problems turning on their own parents?

I'm not sure a person, sufficiently brainwashed, would give a second thought to pushing the button.

I meant from an American standpoint, if you declare war on NK then Seoul will burn, you just cant stop their artillery strikes that are already targeted.

[Slava]

I thought I would bump this thread. I read the book over the past couple days, and would recommend it. Its an easy read, and really a remarkable story. The part of his mothers death, while clearly had for us to comprehend, isn't necessarily the worst of it. I wouldn't want to spoil anything here though. It does give you some insight into the mess that is North Korea, and while it is entirely incomprehensible in a lot of respects (and just plain horrific), its interesting when you think of the human psychology in some ways.

Anyway, I paid the roughly $15. I'm sure that you can get it free somewhere, but the money goes to the author and the escapee. That poor soul will have enough problems, so I figured I'd pay.

[CaptainCrunch]

Most of the stuff that I've read on North Korea is very hard to read, that book is exceptional.

I very much doubt that things will ever get better until you not only get rid of the Kim dynasty, but most of the senior members of that government.

Beyond a bad government they are completely screwed by geography with little in the way of useful farmland. When the Korea's split most of the farm land ended up in the South, while most of the mineral wealth ended up in the North.

Of course the North sold the minerals for foreign currency which was used to buy lavish items for the Kim's.

With little in the way of money and a closed government its unlikely that North Korea will be able to sustain their people without either massive amounts of foreign aid or re-unification with the South. Neither of those are likely to happen any time soon.

The skuttlebutt is that Kim Jong-Un is more of a figure head being controlled by older aunts and uncles and senior military commanders and he doesn't have the brains of his dead father or the political will of his grandfather.

[Itse]

To have tanks and to fight with them are two very different things.

A couple of pointers; Soviet Russias actual military capability was consistently overestimated throughout it's existance. Especially it's actual ability to field all those tanks and aircraft, let alone a significant force of mobile anti-air platforms, artillery or anything.

The situation in NK is propably much worse than it was in Soviet Russian before it's end. The majority of their military at that point was not really in fighting condition due to various shortages.

It's very unlikely that a country that has run out pretty much every natural resource would have the fuel reserves and spare parts to effectively maintain it's army for longer than days or weeks at best, especially since the US attack would propably take out large parts of it's fuel reserves right from the start with missile strikes.

It's also likely that a country out of which a significant part of it's population would like to get out of would suffer from massive moral problems and defections. The simple shock of their daily routines breaking would propably be enough to shake a large part of that population. It's also very likely a highly inefficient country and incapable of reacting to outside events.

The population would be extremely susceptable to foreign propaganda due to the simple fact that they either have very little skills to see through propaganda, or if they do, know their own side is totally lying all the time too.

Their military also almost completely lacks actual combat experience.

There is only one real problem with fighting the NK; Seoul is within artillery distance of North Korean border. The massive North Korean artillery propably works, because all it needs is ammunition and what qualifies as semi-skilled labour for the most part. (Seoul is a really big target after all.)

Taking out massive amounts of artillery is not fast nor easy, and Seoul is one of the biggest and most densily populated cities in the world. There's a risk they could use any kind of weaponry imaginable to destroy it. (Gas, bio, napalm, nuclear if they actually have them...)

It's quite realistic that NK could turn a modern city of 10 million into an uninhabitable wasteland within the first day of war. (Some estimates say it would take about two hours.) In comparison to that, the discussion of military casualties becomes rather irrelevant.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Itse

To have tanks and to fight with them are two very different things.

A couple of pointers; Soviet Russias actual military capability was consistently overestimated throughout it's existance. Especially it's actual ability to field all those tanks and aircraft, let alone a significant force of mobile anti-air platforms, artillery or anything.

The situation in NK is propably much worse than it was in Soviet Russian before it's end. The majority of their military at that point was not really in fighting condition due to various shortages.

It's very unlikely that a country that has run out pretty much every natural resource would have the fuel reserves and spare parts to effectively maintain it's army for longer than days or weeks at best, especially since the US attack would propably take out large parts of it's fuel reserves right from the start with missile strikes.

It's also likely that a country out of which a significant part of it's population would like to get out of would suffer from massive moral problems and defections. The simple shock of their daily routines breaking would propably be enough to shake a large part of that population. It's also very likely a highly inefficient country and incapable of reacting to outside events.

The population would be extremely susceptable to foreign propaganda due to the simple fact that they either have very little skills to see through propaganda, or if they do, know their own side is totally lying all the time too.

Their military also almost completely lacks actual combat experience.

There is only one real problem with fighting the NK; Seoul is within artillery distance of North Korean border. The massive North Korean artillery propably works, because all it needs is ammunition and what qualifies as semi-skilled labour for the most part. (Seoul is a really big target after all.)

Taking out massive amounts of artillery is not fast nor easy, and Seoul is one of the biggest and most densily populated cities in the world. There's a risk they could use any kind of weaponry imaginable to destroy it. (Gas, bio, napalm, nuclear if they actually have them...)

It's quite realistic that NK could turn a modern city of 10 million into an uninhabitable wasteland within the first day of war. (Some estimates say it would take about two hours.) In comparison to that, the discussion of military casualties becomes rather irrelevant.

I'm going to bring up some points here just to counter yours.

For every ration that given to a North Korean person, a portion is witheld to go to the military strategic reserve, its the same with fuel, etc. North Korea has also been stockpiling ammunition.

These "Taxations started in the late 70's and accelerated in about 1992 when the Kim's saw things like the collapse of Romania and the uprising against the government, they were further freaked out vy the fall of the Soviet Union.

The military while underfed by conventional theory, are extremely well fed by North Korean standards.

Their morale is high and their dicipline and focus is higher.

North Korean's serve a 10 year hitch in the military, in that time they are segregated from society, they don't get leaves to see their family or girlfriends, they are heavily indoctrinated and go through far more brutal and accurate training then the South Korean's do where the average hitch is 3 years and out.

According to high level defectors the moral in the North Korea is very high, they believe that a war of re-unification is inevitable and that they will beat the soft South Korean Society. They also believe that America has been so hobbled by the wars in the middle east that the airlift and sealift capability and America's resolve to intervene will be slow.

Nearly a quarter of North Korea's army are considered special forces or commando's who are training in submarine insertions, tunnel insertions and infiltration in civilian clothing as part of a refugee surge that North Korea has planned out. They will not fight the same tank on tank war that they fought in the first war, they will fight a asymetrical war based around the idea of sowing terror and chaos first.

While the North Korean equipment is older, one senior defector stated that the North Korean Army has stock piled an unbelievable amount or ammo, fuel and food for the push South.

In terms of Seoul and North Korean Artillary, we're not talking towed artillary and towed mortars here we're talking about hardened artillary sites that are built to blunt air attacks with sophisticated anti-aircraft defenses, and hardened sites built to withstand South Korean artillary.

North Korea has also taken the last 30 years to fortify the border and to fortify any possible sea invasion sites, they also have watched the last few American Wars with great interest, their goal is to take away armor mobility instead of encouraging it, if there is a war, one defector stated it will happen in the spring and summer when the paddies and fields can't support the weight of a tank invasion.

There's a misconception that North Korea has low moral in its military, but these people are true believers who are willing to "become the bombs and bullets of their country".

They know due to indoctrinationt that they need the South Korean fields to feed North Korea, and they will be ruthless.

In terms of a lack of combat experience, its not like South Korea is all that experienced and the American contigent is fairly small.

If the North Korean's can sow terror with their special forces, annihilate Seoul causing a refugee crisis and moral crisis and sweep Commando's in from tunnels or subs to go after leadership, they could probably get pretty far down south before they have to stop due to logistic problems.

the key question is has North Korea done enough defensively to withstand a weighted body blow by the American's that will surely come.

And if North Korea gambles everything on a war of reunification do they bring out their large stocks of chemical weapons and use theose as well?

[undercoverbrother]

Really makes you think the west should stop all aid to the country. I am not positive, but I suspect many western countries send aid.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm going to bring up some points here just to counter yours.

You make valid points. I tend to have the view that the fighting capability of most armies, when judged by people in them, is exaggerated. I expect this to be an especially severe issue in all totalitarian regimes. Especially in ones with poor comparison points. I would also think it's likely that very few people in the country, if any really, are genuinely interested in knowing facts about much anything. Most people in totalitarian regimes are in the business of looking good or invisibile to their superiors and covering their asses.

Moot point really though. The Seoul issue alone is reason enough to not want war with North Korea.

And North Korea doesn't really have that much insentive to attack anyone. The high ups in NK surely understand that the South Koreans would never surrender and the US air superiority would eventually cripple them.

Heck, the simple threat of having to expose large parts of their society to the outside world is propably enough to deter them from moving their troops outside their borders.

(As to ratings of training levels, at least some years ago 100% of Finnish troops were classified at that level. Colour me unimpressed.)

[I-Hate-Hulse]

he is short and slight -- five feet six inches, about 120 pounds

Doesn't that describe like 75% of Asian males? Clearly someone not asian wrote this article....

Let me guess - Black hair too?

[Devils'Advocate]

I watched some 60 Minutes segments on these labour camps. They seemed as bad, if not worse, than the death camps the Nazi's kept the Jews in. People visit Auschwitz and say "I can't believe that humans actually treated other humans like this" completely unaware that similar camps exist TODAY. This should be front page news and become common knowledge, but most people don't know. Or perhaps we don't want to know.

If the Holocaust was contained within one country and Germany had stayed within its own borders, I'm not sure anyone would have had the guts to invade on humanitarian grounds.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Devils'Advocate

I watched some 60 Minutes segments on these labour camps. They seemed as bad, if not worse, than the death camps the Nazi's kept the Jews in. People visit Auschwitz and say "I can't believe that humans actually treated other humans like this" completely unaware that similar camps exist TODAY. This should be front page news and become common knowledge, but most people don't know. Or perhaps we don't want to know.

If the Holocaust was contained within one country and Germany had stayed within its own borders, I'm not sure anyone would have had the guts to invade on humanitarian grounds.

Up into the late 90's the labor camps in Russia that were put up for tree clearing was a sought after position for North Korean workers because they were paid over 5 times more then any job in North Korea 400 won per month versus about 70.

People were bribing communist part officials with T.V.'s (about 400 won) and cash to get assigned to those positions.

The govenment took nearly half of your pay in taxes but you were still making 3 times as much as the best paid factory workier.

Things started to change when it was realized that a lot of North Korean's would get into Russian camps and then flee for the nearest South Korean or American consulate.

I think now they send prisoners from labor camps to work in Russia.