Alberta PC's way out front

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Was that me? LOL

Not unless your avatar and username are horrible lies

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well the 75 would be enormous, and we'll have to see as it gets closer (too much could change). I do think that the Wildrose merges if they get a handful of seats though and are not official opposition. That would be a huge failure and I wonder if Smith could even survive as leader at that point?

Way things have been going, you can be official opposition with 10 seats. Libs will go down in seats, NDP have a chance at gaining a couple. Really the WRP only need 8 or so to be official opposition.

I think she would. I would guess party members would be willing to at least give her 2 kicks at it.

[Slava]

If I had to guess today I think that the Liberals come out of this with a total of 4 seats. Not pretty, barely an official party and certainly not an improvement from where they were in 2008. I think the NDP ciuld be at around 6 seats, which is a big improvement for them.

The Wildrose is a wild-card. I have a hard time seeing how they win seats in the teens though. I think that their message plays well to a certain demographic and thats where the vote splitting with the Tories will happen. I would say that the Wildrose support is around 20-25% but its pretty level. This is a level of support that has plagued the Liberals for years though; it amounts to potentially a handful of seats. While 28-30% would mean way more seats, and its only three percent, this is one of the distortions of our system.

I do find some of the posts here from FL and Resolute amusing though. When the measuring stick today is "well we're on track to beat the Liberals" its pretty bad. The Liberals arent running a full slate this campaign and lets be honest for a second; beating the Liberals was never the point. This was a party that was basically planning the parade with every new poll. They trotted out attack ads as soon as Redford was elected and tried to mirror the federal PC strategy in that respect. A lot could change and its too early to say anything, but there would have to be some serious disappointment with a small caucus and official opposition.

[Hockeyguy15]

Not shocked at all. PC's could have a convicted pedophile as their leader and people would still vote for them.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Not shocked at all. PC's could have a convicted pedophile as their leader and people would still vote for them.

That is not completely true.

With Ed at the helm, we would have been looking at a MUCH closer race and a probable loss for the PCs in Alberta.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Rathji

That is not completely true.

With Ed at the helm, we would have been looking at a MUCH closer race and a probable loss for the PCs in Alberta.

How is it not completely true? I didn't say that everyone would still vote for them, I said that they would still get votes.

There is a percentage of people that will vote PC no matter what, I don't know what percentage that is but they are the reason I feel like Alberta politics are a joke at times.

Hey we don't like these drinking laws you are talking about, but I will still vote for you because that's what a good old boy should do. Hey I don't like the way you are spending our provincial money, oh well I will still vote for you.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

The Wildrose is a wild-card. I have a hard time seeing how they win seats in the teens though. I think that their message plays well to a certain demographic and thats where the vote splitting with the Tories will happen. I would say that the Wildrose support is around 20-25% but its pretty level. This is a level of support that has plagued the Liberals for years though; it amounts to potentially a handful of seats. While 28-30% would mean way more seats, and its only three percent, this is one of the distortions of our system.

Using the Forum Research poll (since I have the PDF handy), I would say that the Wildrose appealing to a "certain demographic" is incorrect. The party appears to have broad support in all regions and across all age groups.

Calgary  PC 38 WA  35 LIB 13 NDP  8 AP 3 OTH 3
Edmonton PC 33 NDP 22 LIB 19 WA  18 AP 3 OTH 4
North    PC 39 WA  33 LIB 13 NDP 10 AP 3 OTH 2
South    PC 44 WA  30 LIB 11 NDP  9 AP 2 OTH 4

When I look at those numbers, I'd be more worried about vote splitting on the left. Consider that in 2008, the Liberals/NDP combined for 38% of the vote in Calgary, but the LIB/NDP/AP are down to 24% in this poll. Edmonton: 51.5% in 2008, 44% now. Same thing in the south, while in the north, the percentages remain close. It appears the Liberals are bleeding support in both directions. The New Democrats are polling way higher than the vote in 2008, but overall left wing support is down everywhere. People who voted Liberal last time out only because they wanted an alternative to the PCs are more likely to go Wildrose this time around based on these numbers.

Outside of Edmonton, parts of Calgary and probably that one riding in Lethbridge, there aren't a lot of places where the Liberals or NDP have enough support that a PC/WA vote split would see them come up the middle. And even in Edmonton, with the NDP and Liberals running in a dead heat, I would be more worried about their splits driving more Tories through.

In most of Calgary and most of Rural Alberta, it might be a toss up at this point as to which ridings go PC and which go WA.

Of course, a lot will change in the next four months, and I suspect Smith's greatest battle will be working to convince soft supporters and undecideds that the argument they appeal only to a "certain demographic" little more than slander. It should be an entertaining campaign.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

How is it not completely true? I didn't say that everyone would still vote for them, I said that they would still get votes.

There is a percentage of people that will vote PC no matter what, I don't know what percentage that is but they are the reason I feel like Alberta politics are a joke at times.

Well of course that is true, every party "gets votes". In fact the Communist Party gets votes every time it runs a candidate, but that doesn't make the political system in Canada any more of a joke.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Well of course that is true, every party "gets votes". In fact the Communist Party gets votes every time it runs a candidate, but that doesn't make the political system in Canada any more of a joke.

Ok well then the PC's would still get enough votes to be relevant...Better, or are you going to keep nitpicking?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Using the Forum Research poll (since I have the PDF handy), I would say that the Wildrose appealing to a "certain demographic" is incorrect. The party appears to have broad support in all regions and across all age groups.

Calgary  PC 38 WA  35 LIB 13 NDP  8 AP 3 OTH 3
Edmonton PC 33 NDP 22 LIB 19 WA  18 AP 3 OTH 4
North    PC 39 WA  33 LIB 13 NDP 10 AP 3 OTH 2
South    PC 44 WA  30 LIB 11 NDP  9 AP 2 OTH 4

When I look at those numbers, I'd be more worried about vote splitting on the left. Consider that in 2008, the Liberals/NDP combined for 38% of the vote in Calgary, but the LIB/NDP/AP are down to 24% in this poll. Edmonton: 51.5% in 2008, 44% now. Same thing in the south, while in the north, the percentages remain close. It appears the Liberals are bleeding support in both directions. The New Democrats are polling way higher than the vote in 2008, but overall left wing support is down everywhere. People who voted Liberal last time out only because they wanted an alternative to the PCs are more likely to go Wildrose this time around based on these numbers.

Outside of Edmonton, parts of Calgary and probably that one riding in Lethbridge, there aren't a lot of places where the Liberals or NDP have enough support that a PC/WA vote split would see them come up the middle. And even in Edmonton, with the NDP and Liberals running in a dead heat, I would be more worried about their splits driving more Tories through.

In most of Calgary and most of Rural Alberta, it might be a toss up at this point as to which ridings go PC and which go WA.

Of course, a lot will change in the next four months, and I suspect Smith's greatest battle will be working to convince soft supporters and undecideds that the argument they appeal only to a "certain demographic" little more than slander. It should be an entertaining campaign.

That first statement is entirely true. The Liberals are caught here and frankly they're in big trouble if they don't see that (they do, FWIW). The NDP support is eating away left leaning support and a more centrist PC party is moving into their ground to take away the more right leaning supporters.

The second bolded statement is just wrong though. I think that sure, there are some voters who will do that; it makes no sense, but some people will. Most people who would identify themselves as Liberal supporters though are not going to vote for the Wildrose because they simply don't identify with any of their policies and goals. Its more likely that disenchanted Liberals move to the PC's.

This is where the campaign becomes interesting and potentially a train-wreck for the Liberals. If the PC's feel threatened from the right they basically roll out a "vote for us and keep off the right-wing horde" type of campaign. "We've made a lot of changes and things are good right now, so lets not do something stupid and hand the reins to someone unproven." Agree or disagree (I think I know where you are on that scale), it would be fairly compelling. In that scenario the Liberals have no choice but to move further left, which is already occupied by the NDP and Alberta Party. Bascially they get squeezed out and thats how I arrive at them getting about 4 seats.

In that scenario though, most moderates vote PC long before they ever vote Wildrose. It might not play out that way (my track record is atrocious, so I wouldn't even be inclined to agree with my opinion!), but its a possibility.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

The second bolded statement is just wrong though. I think that sure, there are some voters who will do that; it makes no sense, but some people will. Most people who would identify themselves as Liberal supporters though are not going to vote for the Wildrose because they simply don't identify with any of their policies and goals. Its more likely that disenchanted Liberals move to the PC's.

You are arguing against something I didn't say. I made no comments about people who identify themselves as Liberal supporters. I was talking about people who were voting against the PCs - protest votes. In 2008, your only real alternative was the Liberals - the NDP were flatlined and the WRA was a fringe party. That's basically how the Liberals got 5 seats in Calgary.

[CaptainCrunch]

Its time for the Liberal's to do something drastic, and that's to merge with the NDP in this province and form the Leftist Alberta Commune Party.

I mean they can hang together or hang seperately, but we're rapidly heading towards a 1 1/2 party concept in Alberta.

I would have hoped that the numbers would have been closer, especially with the wishy washy way that our dear leader handled the pipeline stuff and the .05 law issues.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

You are arguing against something I didn't say. I made no comments about people who identify themselves as Liberal supporters. I was talking about people who were voting against the PCs - protest votes. In 2008, your only real alternative was the Liberals - the NDP were flatlined and the WRA was a fringe party. That's basically how the Liberals got 5 seats in Calgary.

The Liberals got five seats here because they had either A) MLAs already elected, and thats the power of incumbency or (B) Good candidates.

I think that they actually hold two of these seats here in Calgary after this campaign. Its about the concentration of the votes as well, which is something that works to the detriment of the Wildrose more often than not. Could we see a right wing party advocating electoral reform?

[Slava]

Some analysis of the two polls from someone independent. Basically concludes that he can't draw any conclusions!

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.co....html?spref=tw

[VladtheImpaler]

This is very disappointing. I am thoroughly tired of the PC's, and Redford's terrible .05 law, and her NEP mumblings, etc don't make me want to vote for her.

[Makarov]

I'm really shocked that the Wildrose Alliance is polling at 35% support in Calgary. It just isn't consistent with the people I know or, for example, the civic election results. I just find it surprising (well, a bit disappointing too, as someone who doesn't support the Wildrose Alliance.)

[mykalberta]

Polls before an election can be deceptive.

Danielle Smith definately has her work cut out for her, the debates for her will be very important.

WRA doesnt have much hope in Edmonton and Calgary - they need to build their party from rural ridings and then use that free publicity of being elected and having some money to then work their way into the suburbs.

I do think WRA support will erode some PC seats in the big cities with vote splitting (no concern of that in the rural ridings)

I think the best hope for the WRA is they win 2Xish rural seats and vote split to give some seats to the Left and force the PC into a minority situation. Then they can use that momentum for the next election and the PCs will be forced to find a new leader after being humiliated in an election.

Alberta is still running a deficit, they have an inherit short sighted vision and an almost complete mismanagement of the Heritage Fund all are areas of vulnerability for the PCs that should give some hope the WRA.

I dont know their position, but I think the WRA should abolish the flat tax and use that issue to drive a wedge within the Right.

[First Lady]

Graham Thomson's column on the polls.

My favourite line:

Given the margin of error (3.2 per cent 19 times out of 20) the Liberals and New Democrats are in a statistical tie. And statistically speaking, the Alberta Party is so low in the poll it might actually owe us votes.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by First Lady

Graham Thomson's column on the polls.

My favourite line:

Thats pretty funny. I'm sure you also got a kick out out of them wanting their leader (quick, can anyone name him without google?!) to be included in the leaders debates.

[First Lady]

Originally Posted by Slava

Thats pretty funny. I'm sure you also got a kick out out of them wanting their leader (quick, can anyone name him without google?!) to be included in the leaders debates.

I know! I know!... lol, won't spoil your question.

They are in exactly the same position the Alberta Alliance was back in 2004.
We had one member in the Legislature, due to a floor crossing. Our leader wasn't invited to partake in the debate. I suspect it will be the same for them.

Was going to blog on it, but Cory beat me to it.