Is the decline of American Power overstated?

[4X4]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Personally I think the US's fubar'd, while they may have 16 of the top 20 uni's they also have taken to worshiping stupidity and rejecting intellectualism to a frightening degree on an individual level, I would be interested to see how many international students attend those 16 uni's.
Their political system is no longer functions.

We have seen the future of the US and it is a nation of Jersey Shore

A guy from England is talking about the US loving stupidity? You guys are the ones that invented crazy obsessions with no talent celebrities and useless figureheads like the Royal Family.
No, I'm not exonerating the US for being screwed in the head, but for a Brit to do the criticizing? That's like Kevin Lowe criticizing Darryl Sutter.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by peter12

If anything the UK is the perfect example of a nation filled with fools, and an overall sense of delusion. The United States will be just fine as far as your metric is concerned.

Actually the US generally ranks around 30th in the developed world, Canada is around 4th or so and the UK comes in around 15th to 20th on a combine of literacy, math and science.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by fotze

The Brits fataed up so many countries that the US can't hold their jockstrap.

We didn't fata up anything, we got other people to fata them up for us.
A lesson the US could sorely learn.

[macker]

Depends how they deal with the war for jobs that they are failing at currently. There is said to be a 1.5 - 1.8 billion global shortfall for real jobs or good jobs. Is the US currently going broke by not having the business activity to create the jobs? Winning the war for jobs will be even more important than winning WW2. There are 6 million small businesses in the US now and only about 1,000 truly big businesses and the focus is on the wrong areas currently as entrepreneurship and small business is where the jobs will come from. There are areas in the US where there is lots of small business activity and unemployment is low like in Omaha for example where it is around 4% and it seems like it is in a whole new country but then you have cities like Detroit that 40 years ago was the richest city in the world and now look at it. The leaders keep betting on the wrong things. Many of the jobs that were lost will never come back so why waste time on them. The global job situation is going to intensify with each passing year so I would not say the decline of American Power is overstated but based on economic data about what you would expect.

[SeeBass]

When the unemployment rate for college educated americans is at 4% the signs are obvious that they need to focus on a technology economy.

They educated the masses for an agricultural economy, grades 6-10.
Then they nationalized education for a industrial economy where you need to finish high school.
Now they need to nationalize their education for college in a technology economy.

When 85% of college grads move home with their parents due to student loans it is a sign that they need to make it affordable to most. These kids are in debt to the price of a home but have no home.

Heard this conversation on Bill Maher this week

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by macker

Depends how they deal with the war for jobs that they are failing at currently. There is said to be a 1.5 - 1.8 billion global shortfall for real jobs or good jobs. Is the US currently going broke by not having the business activity to create the jobs? Winning the war for jobs will be even more important than winning WW2. There are 6 million small businesses in the US now and only about 1,000 truly big businesses and the focus is on the wrong areas currently as entrepreneurship and small business is where the jobs will come from. There are areas in the US where there is lots of small business activity and unemployment is low like in Omaha for example where it is around 4% and it seems like it is in a whole new country but then you have cities like Detroit that 40 years ago was the richest city in the world and now look at it. The leaders keep betting on the wrong things. Many of the jobs that were lost will never come back so why waste time on them. The global job situation is going to intensify with each passing year so I would not say the decline of American Power is overstated but based on economic data about what you would expect.

Your six million and 1000 figures sound really out of wack.

[macker]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Your six million and 1000 figures sound really out of wack.

There are six million companies with 500 employees or les in the US today and these are considered small businesses. There are 1,000 companies with 10,000 or more employees in the US and referred to as big businesses. Jim Clifton has done a lot of research in this area and recently put out a great book on this topic. Not my figures but noteworthy for sure.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by GoFlamesGo89

Interesting article, especially since I'll be relocating the US next year, thanks to the OP for sharing.

With regards to the universities, the interesting question there is how many of the top students actually remain in the US and will contribute to societal advancement?

I do think that it overstates the importance of cultural history in the US (and lack thereof in the EU).

I would say that the vast majority remain in the US. I haven't looked at the stats, but from personal experience foreign students make up a very small percentage of the overall student body and a solid chunk of that group stays in the US for at least some period of time. In fact, one of the big perks of attending a US school is the access to certain types of work visas.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by macker

There are six million companies with 500 employees or les in the US today and these are considered small businesses. There are 1,000 companies with 10,000 or more employees in the US and referred to as big businesses. Jim Clifton has done a lot of research in this area and recently put out a great book on this topic. Not my figures but noteworthy for sure.

I understand what your saying, but I question it. For example, Canada has 1 million or more small businesses (100 employees and under)

I think in terms of stats what I found is that firms that are considered small business with employees is 6 million.

There are however over 21 million firms in the states that would be considered like micro firms but thats because they don't have traditional payroll, which means they could be single or family businesses, or businesses based around using contractors.

http://www.census.gov/econ/smallbus.html

Firms that would be considered large are to me firms that fit in the 2500 employees and up, and they are somewhat numerous as seen in the breakdown above.

[troutman]

USA is bad at rugby.

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by 4X4

A guy from England is talking about the US loving stupidity? You guys are the ones that invented crazy obsessions with no talent celebrities and useless figureheads like the Royal Family.
No, I'm not exonerating the US for being screwed in the head, but for a Brit to do the criticizing? That's like Kevin Lowe criticizing Darryl Sutter.

One of these useless figureheads is the Head of State for Canada. A foreigner as head of state and a useless figurehead.

Does that disqualify any Canadian posters from offering up any criticism?

edit: I don't disagree with the points raised about the state of affairs of the UK, but that really shouldn't DQ someone from there from offering their opinion and it being considered on its own merit.

[Phanuthier]

WRT a few comments here, and the article... overstated, probably. The biggest thing is the social infrastructure for a world power. China has a lot of things to give it promise, India has a lot of things to give it promise, but the social infrastructure and ability to go about doing business and develop goes a long ways. If anything, the economics of these days really seems to be more international.

Education? Poor. Canada's was far better from the very brief exposure I can see. (I don't work in a education field or anything) The comment about top 16/20 schools.... whatever. I came from the University of Alberta, I work with a lot of people who came from UCLA, UC Berkeley and Stanford... those 3 schools certainly are 3 very good schools with good teachers, but the students coming out of that school didn't seem that much better (if even) then a lot of my people in my graduating class. I think Canada has very good universities, and aren't far back in terms of quality compared to American top schools (just less connections). As for internationals, et al goes.... I don't know how it compares with history, but there are a lot of international students, and UCLA/Berkeley are definitely dominated (80%?) by Asians (whether or not they are international students, I don't know)... Stanford, at least in Engineering classes, is around half at the graduate level (again, not sure who is international)... undergrad seems to be more dominated by Caucasians.

Economics... pretty crappy. A country led by the finance industry is pretty scary. For a world power, the USA sure doesn't create a lot of value.

Working class... I live in a area that seems to be somewhat dominated by either a upper class, or lower class, with a very small middle class, so my views might not be a good representation, but the small and dying middle class is pretty scary.

China/India not being as "cheap labour" ... true and definitely to consider, the trend of the USA losing ground and C/I gaining ground might not be fair as C/I will start leveling off. At the same time, though, you are seeing more talent coming out of there.

[You Need a Thneed]

I'd say that the decline of the American Power is understated, however, that doesn't mean that they won't be a power for a long time yet.

[Barnet Flame]

I remember as a kid in the 80s, the US economy was in a horrible state. Uncompetitive and with a seemingly bleak future. I suspect that the US economy will eventually diversify and adapt and come back from the abyss it appears to be facing now, just as it did in the 80s.

Whether or not it will come back as strongly is a moot point.

Yeah, I think it is overstated, but the situation is pretty bleak right now, so the pessimism is not totally unfounded.

[macker]

US GDP blended over the past 10 years is at 1.2% and China is at 10%. The next 10 years will likely shift things even more unless the US can get this number to at least 5 or 6%. 15 Trillion share of global 60 Trillion GDP will continue to erode and jobs will continue to go elsewhere. At minimum the US needs to find a way to get GDP to 4% fast.

[valo403]

Originally Posted by Phanuthier

WRT a few comments here, and the article... overstated, probably. The biggest thing is the social infrastructure for a world power. China has a lot of things to give it promise, India has a lot of things to give it promise, but the social infrastructure and ability to go about doing business and develop goes a long ways. If anything, the economics of these days really seems to be more international.

Education? Poor. Canada's was far better from the very brief exposure I can see. (I don't work in a education field or anything) The comment about top 16/20 schools.... whatever. I came from the University of Alberta, I work with a lot of people who came from UCLA, UC Berkeley and Stanford... those 3 schools certainly are 3 very good schools with good teachers, but the students coming out of that school didn't seem that much better (if even) then a lot of my people in my graduating class. I think Canada has very good universities, and aren't far back in terms of quality compared to American top schools (just less connections). As for internationals, et al goes.... I don't know how it compares with history, but there are a lot of international students, and UCLA/Berkeley are definitely dominated (80%?) by Asians (whether or not they are international students, I don't know)... Stanford, at least in Engineering classes, is around half at the graduate level (again, not sure who is international)... undergrad seems to be more dominated by Caucasians.

Economics... pretty crappy. A country led by the finance industry is pretty scary. For a world power, the USA sure doesn't create a lot of value.

Working class... I live in a area that seems to be somewhat dominated by either a upper class, or lower class, with a very small middle class, so my views might not be a good representation, but the small and dying middle class is pretty scary.

China/India not being as "cheap labour" ... true and definitely to consider, the trend of the USA losing ground and C/I gaining ground might not be fair as C/I will start leveling off. At the same time, though, you are seeing more talent coming out of there.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but as the worlds largest consumer the US is responsible for a great deal of value globally. If you're talking about tangible production it's more a matter of how far up your willing to go. Sure American factories aren't churning out a lot, but American companies sure are.

A lot of people seem to gloss over the fact that a continued decline in the US has very serious consequences for many of the nations that are supposedly going to take over the top spot. It's an over simplification, but if Americans stop buying things the Chinese stop making things.

[Ozy_Flame]

I think American re-invigoration should - and is going to - be led by American innovation and technology. Whether that is software, transport, aviation, military technology, or whatever, this is where to begin and promote. Finance should be secondary to a strong product-driven economy, where quality and efficiency are valued over quantity of output, and long-term technological solutions are a basic for growing the economies of other countries (e.g. other nations relying on American technology to for state building, public works, and private sector development). Additionally, a supporting focus on green and ethical methods and procedures will help put America back at the top.

I believe American power is in decline, but with a proper strategy, it doesn't have to be.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by valo403

Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but as the worlds largest consumer the US is responsible for a great deal of value globally. If you're talking about tangible production it's more a matter of how far up your willing to go. Sure American factories aren't churning out a lot, but American companies sure are.

A lot of people seem to gloss over the fact that a continued decline in the US has very serious consequences for many of the nations that are supposedly going to take over the top spot. It's an over simplification, but if Americans stop buying things the Chinese stop making things.

Except that the chinese are now buying things themselves, they have the worlds largest untapped market, and that is what will put the US in firm decline in the next decade or two.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Except that the chinese are now buying things themselves, they have the worlds largest untapped market, and that is what will put the US in firm decline in the next decade or two.

But wouldn't you agree that the massive trade imbalance that the American's hold with the Chinese is a fail point.

For the chinese it sounds like the majority of their purchasing is either in resource or unfinished goods, and they work very hard to keep their markets semi closed to other nations finished goods?

Plus because of their ability to manufacture of the cheap any other goods are a lot higher priced then the homegrown stuff.

the American's are rightfully getting out of the manufacture of cheaper consumer goods because they can't compete cost wise with the emerging nations.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

But wouldn't you agree that the massive trade imbalance that the American's hold with the Chinese is a fail point.

For the chinese it sounds like the majority of their purchasing is either in resource or unfinished goods, and they work very hard to keep their markets semi closed to other nations finished goods?

Plus because of their ability to manufacture of the cheap any other goods are a lot higher priced then the homegrown stuff.

the American's are rightfully getting out of the manufacture of cheaper consumer goods because they can't compete cost wise with the emerging nations.

They do a lot more than that, you know. At least in my field. My company (semiconductors) has a few number of design centers in China. A lot of that "cheap labor" is going other countries with lower cost.