Well, the 'lie' was the Spanish government claiming that the Basques were responsible for the bombing, when it was later shown to be Islamic militants. This action was directly tied to Spain's involvement in Iraq and the War on Terror, but I hear what you're saying.
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I do think you are right as well about the American South, as well as the vast majority of the rural areas of the US. They will never vote for a Liberal Democrat from the NE, they just can't relate. The funny thing is that all the people from the NE and the rust belt are moving to the south and west. Texas and Florida will eclipse New York by 2010 and coincidentally have more electoral votes. The bastions of the Democrats are losing population at an alarming rate. We will have to see if in the future whether they keep voting Dem after the move and dilute the Red states or go to the dark side.
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The demographic shift might be interesting, or it might be moot. California is a 'bastion' of the Democrats (despite its Govern...ator), and I'm sure its population will be growing too.
I'm also fairly sure that 'non-white' groups are growing at a _much_ faster rate than whites in the US (mostly Mexican/South American influx), and these people will probably be the toss-up deciding factor over the next few decades. They're in an interesting spot, in that economically they'd most likely vote Democrat, while ideologically (heavily Christian) they may side w/ the Republicans.
Bottom-line, it will be the people new to the US that make the largest impact on the voting scheme there over the next 30-50 years, as opposed to internal demographic movements.
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Blair won, Bush won, Howard won. For an action that was touted as "Political suicide" they are still standing. For all the talk coming from the left there as been scant results.
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This would be absolutely true if these elections were direct and pure referendums on the War in Iraq. However, context cannot be ignored. As I pointed out above, many Christians against the War may have voted for Bush because they liked other peices of his agenda. Similarly, some Leftists may have voted against Kerry because they can't bring themselves to support a 'Nam veteran (baby-killer rhetoric). I don't see political elections as very indicative of popular opinion on single-issues, but rather a complex myriad of issues, emotions, and the events immediately preceding the election.
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