Windows 8 - first look

[psicodude]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Things change fast in the pc world. I'm not convinced tablets will replace keyboards and mice, but it won't be long before an android device can do everything a pc can better and faster, and you don't have to wait 20 minutes to boot up. I don't see PCs as we know them surviving 5 years. They are already dying in the consumer space. Maybe I'm wrong, but check back in 5 years, and we'll see who wins!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_848999.html

I think this article shows that you are partly correct. PC sales have dropped again so far this year, but they still sold 80 million + PC's in 3 months. Tablets have a long way to go before swaying the purchasing decision for that many boxes.

The other interesting thing here is that tablets have only really impacted the sales of netbooks. I know the Calgary based sales reps for several huge PC manufacturers, and they all say that the traditional PC and monitor on a desk market hasn't really been touched by tablets. If anything, customers are supplementing their PC with a mobile device - which is the direction Microsoft seems to be going here. One set of data and applications that work on desktop, tablet, and phone.

[Komskies]

Originally Posted by psicodude

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_848999.html

I think this article shows that you are partly correct. PC sales have dropped again so far this year, but they still sold 80 million + PC's in 3 months. Tablets have a long way to go before swaying the purchasing decision for that many boxes.

The other interesting thing here is that tablets have only really impacted the sales of netbooks. I know the Calgary based sales reps for several huge PC manufacturers, and they all say that the traditional PC and monitor on a desk market hasn't really been touched by tablets. If anything, customers are supplementing their PC with a mobile device - which is the direction Microsoft seems to be going here. One set of data and applications that work on desktop, tablet, and phone.

They're missing a huge part of the picture here. People are increasingly tech savvy these days and a huge segment of the PC market now buy their own parts and build their own computers. This article only talks about pre-made systems.

[Knalus]

Originally Posted by psicodude

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_848999.html

I think this article shows that you are partly correct. PC sales have dropped again so far this year, but they still sold 80 million + PC's in 3 months. Tablets have a long way to go before swaying the purchasing decision for that many boxes.

The other interesting thing here is that tablets have only really impacted the sales of netbooks. I know the Calgary based sales reps for several huge PC manufacturers, and they all say that the traditional PC and monitor on a desk market hasn't really been touched by tablets. If anything, customers are supplementing their PC with a mobile device - which is the direction Microsoft seems to be going here. One set of data and applications that work on desktop, tablet, and phone.

Strangely, I supplemented my iPad with a desktop, after I realized my laptop wasn't going to cut it for storing video and music and all that. I never thought I would ever buy a desktop again, but after picking up a tablet, I found a real use/need.

[Yanda]

Originally Posted by MacGruber

exactly.

7=good. Vista=terrible. XP=Good. ME=Terrible.

and so on

Windows 3.1, 95, 98 and 2000 were all very solid in there own time as well. XP really didnt catch on for a few years after it was out, and alot of people were still using 98 and 2000.

[Hack&Lube]

I read an article last month about how tablet sales are tailing off and how industry expectations were off and about how they would not be replacing physical monitors and keyboards anytime soon because they are reaching a saturation point with the current kind of technology and implementations that are mainly for casual use.

When something like Windows 8 comes out that provides a touch interface in addition to the full powered desktop operating system compatible with all the software already out there for x86/64, then you might have something.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Komskies

They're missing a huge part of the picture here. People are increasingly tech savvy these days and a huge segment of the PC market now buy their own parts and build their own computers. This article only talks about pre-made systems.

There is no way that market even makes up 1% of PC sales.

[HotHotHeat]

Originally Posted by MickMcGeough

I'm probably misunderstanding, but you're suggesting that Android will replace Windows on PCs within 5 years?

MS owns the most-used VOIP software in the world, is in bed with the largest mobile handset manufacturer in the world, and maintains something like an 89% market share in operating systems across all personal devices. They aren't going anywhere for a long time.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Maybe in the consumer space, but very unlikely for SMB and enterprise customers. Companies have invested billions in Windows software and employee training; they're not going to walk away from that easily.

They have no reason to either. Microsoft still has very good software for a business. As for their licensing and pricing, well that is a different problem.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

There is no way that market even makes up 1% of PC sales.

This; I know literally one person that built their own PC; while I don't know thousands of people, almost everyone has either a Macbook or a some PC laptop. I haven't met someone with a non-Mac desktop in about 4 years either...

Generally, the most hardcore tech people will get into en masse when buying a new PC is to wipe it and then re-boot with nothing but Windows. Because, as we all know, the biggest threat to your PC is fricking Norton... What a godawful company, if anyone can explain why they still exist, I'd be thrilled.

[Azure]

Actually, Norton has improved a lot lately. I still think they suck, but at least they are not as horrible as they used to be.

[sclitheroe]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

There is no way that market even makes up 1% of PC sales.

Damn beaten to it. Anybody claiming that has no understanding of the hardware market at ALL.

[sclitheroe]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Windows 3.1, 95, 98 and 2000 were all very solid in there own time as well. XP really didnt catch on for a few years after it was out, and alot of people were still using 98 and 2000.

NT 4, and NT 3.51 in particular, were rock solid in business use. I remember old NT 3.51 systems running some line of business app that basically just chugged away forever.

Microsoft's OS track record is not nearly as bad as many people like to claim.

[Hemi-Cuda]

that tile crap better be a layer that's running on top of the real OS that can be disabled, or i'll be avoiding Win 8 like WinME. you know what's faster than scrolling through your applications with a gesture? clicking on the "app" in the goddamn taskbar. that part showing how you can multi-task with two apps is funny too, i guess if you want more than two of your current applications on the screen at the same time you're screwed

i went with Android over Windows Phone 7 specifically because Android was the more traditionally designed OS, with full customizability on how you want it to look and behave. if Microsoft tries to force those ugly tiles on the PC market with no way around it then i won't be a happy camper

[sclitheroe]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

that tile crap better be a layer that's running on top of the real OS that can be disabled, or i'll be avoiding Win 8 like WinME. you know what's faster than scrolling through your applications with a gesture? clicking on the "app" in the goddamn taskbar. that part showing how you can multi-task with two apps is funny too, i guess if you want more than two of your current applications on the screen at the same time you're screwed

i went with Android over Windows Phone 7 specifically because Android was the more traditionally designed OS, with full customizability on how you want it to look and behave. if Microsoft tries to force those ugly tiles on the PC market with no way around it then i won't be a happy camper

Windows 7 will have mainstream support from MS until 2015, so you have quite a few more years to stick with what you prefer.

After that, you can continue to run it in virtualization, likely with almost no performance penalty given the pace of hardware performance gains, and then you can officially be a curmudgeon.

[Madman]

Originally Posted by MickMcGeough

That said, it seems like the kind of thing that looks really impressive in a demo of all-Microsoft apps, but what will it look like it you load it up with 3rd party stuff?

When he launches up Excel, you can see the new interface goes away and it's a standard 7 interface. (There is no way they'd be able to move away from that)

This new interface is simply a website on top of the UI we are all used to - kinda cool, but not something I'd be using in my day to day workflow.

[MickMcGeough]

Originally Posted by HotHotHeat

I never said the Windows market share isn't declining.

But, if Windows usage declines at it's current rate (which is the highest rate of decline since Windows 3.1 was released - and probably ever) for, say, 9 years, Windows will still be the dominant operating system in use on PCs.

[MotoRacer]

you guys are seriously debating the demise of windows???? the world runs on windows FFS.

[MickMcGeough]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Things change fast in the pc world. I'm not convinced tablets will replace keyboards and mice, but it won't be long before an android device can do everything a pc can better and faster, and you don't have to wait 20 minutes to boot up. I don't see PCs as we know them surviving 5 years. They are already dying in the consumer space. Maybe I'm wrong, but check back in 5 years, and we'll see who wins!

Android's got a long way to go before knocking off iOS tablets, nevermind Windows PCs.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by MickMcGeough

Android's got a long way to go before knocking off iOS tablets, nevermind Windows PCs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Android tablets overtake iPads in marketshare within a few years, but any OS attempting to surpass Windows on desktops and laptops is in for a very tough ride.

ChromeOS probably has the best shot by selling really cheap hardware combined with cheap/free cloud-based apps. I'm sure there's a pretty large percentage of home computer users like my mother who can do everything they need with a Chromebook.

That said, it's extremely unlikely that Windows will lose out in the corporate market anytime soon. As I mentioned earlier, companies have billions invested in software that only runs on Windows, and the cost associated with re-training employees to use a completely different OS and application suite would be prohibitively expensive. It might be economically feasible to eliminate Windows through application virtualization technologies like Citrix or ThinApp, but we're many years away before most businesses will consider switching to a full VDI environment.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

I wouldn't be surprised to see Android tablets overtake iPads in marketshare within a few years, but any OS attempting to surpass Windows on desktops and laptops is in for a very tough ride.

ChromeOS probably has the best shot by selling really cheap hardware combined with cheap/free cloud-based apps. I'm sure there's a pretty large percentage of home computer users like my mother who can do everything they need with a Chromebook.

That said, it's extremely unlikely that Windows will lose out in the corporate market anytime soon. As I mentioned earlier, companies have billions invested in software that only runs on Windows, and the cost associated with re-training employees to use a completely different OS and application suite would be prohibitively expensive. It might be economically feasible to eliminate Windows through application virtualization technologies like Citrix or ThinApp, but we're many years away before most businesses will consider switching to a full VDI environment.

This is so true. We are deploying Windows 7/Office 2010 from XP/Office 2003 this summer and I am dreading dealing with users. Of course my users are all middle aged social workers, so computers are not their forte.