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Old 01-27-2011, 01:14 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by Jimmy Stang View Post
I know that was a long time ago but I'm pretty sure that the polar bear populations are actually declining.
Pretty sure ?

Just maybe all the Global warming propaganda has influenced everyone.

From the National Post

Quote:
Yet despite the Canadian government 's $150-million commitment last week to fund 44 International Polar Year research projects, a key question is not up for detailed scientific assessment: If the polar bear is the 650-kilogram canary in the climate change coal mine, why are its numbers INCREASING?

The latest government survey of polar bears roaming the vast Arctic expanses of northern Quebec, Labrador and southern Baffin Island show the population of polar bears has jumped to 2,100 animals from around 800 in the mid-1980s.

As recently as three years ago, a less official count placed the number at 1,400.

The Inuit have always insisted the bears' demise was greatly exaggerated by scientists doing projections based on fly-over counts, but their input was usually dismissed as the ramblings of self-interested hunters.

Read more: http://www.nationalpost.com/news/sto...#ixzz1CGhEs77R

Poor Polar Bears !
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Old 01-27-2011, 01:45 PM   #22
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So the polar bear population has increased since they were almost hunted into extinction before there were limits placed on polar bear hunting? Shocking!

And also shocking news, real world data is noisy. Out of all the polar bear subpopulations (there's an exact #, does anyone saying polar bear populations are increasing know what it is?), of course in any given year or span of time, some will be increasing, some will be decreasing, and some will remain the same, as fluctuations in food supply and environment and whatever else occurs.

Drawing a conclusion based on a small sample size is the same as saying the Flames will win the cup because they won 4 in a row. It's BAD reasoning.
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Old 01-27-2011, 01:56 PM   #23
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I quoted Jimmy's claim he was pretty sure the population was in decline.



I'll leave it up to the biologists that do this for a living.

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As Nunavut government biologist Mitch Taylor observed in a front-page story in the Nunatsiaq News last month, "the Inuit were right. There aren't just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears."

Their widely portrayed lurch toward extinction on a steadily melting ice cap is not supported by bear counts in other Arctic regions either.
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:02 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pinner View Post
Pretty sure ?

Just maybe all the Global warming propaganda has influenced everyone.
From your own article:

Quote:
The service identifies six Arctic regions where data are insufficient to make a call on the population, including the aforementioned Baffin shores area.
Another six areas are listed as having stable counts, three experienced reduced numbers and two have seen their bears increase.
Obviously, a headline that picks an increasing subpopulation is more intriguing, but more subpopulations saw decreases than increases.

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Besides, polar bears do live on ice and satellite photos show the sea ice is down 7.7% in the last decade. So something is happening up there.
It is warming, and that's not propaganda.

Propaganda goes both ways. While the cause of global warming is debatable to some, and there are motives on both sides, but climate data is showing that it is actually happening. The Hudson's Bay ice is breaking up earlier than it was 30 or 40 years ago. And the polar bear population in some areas are actually declining.

Quote:
We analyzed data for polar bears captured from 1984 to 2004 along the western coast of Hudson Bay and in the community of Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. The Western Hudson Bay polar bear population declined from 1,194 (95% CI = 1,020–1,368) in 1987 to 935 (95% CI = 794–1,076) in 2004. Total apparent survival of prime-adult polar bears (5–19 yr) was stable for females (0.93; 95% CI = 0.91–0.94) and males (0.90; 95% CI = 0.88–0.91). Survival of juvenile, subadult, and senescent-adult polar bears was correlated with spring sea ice breakup date, which was variable among years and occurred approximately 3 weeks earlier in 2004 than in 1984. We propose that this correlation provides evidence for a causal association between earlier sea ice breakup (due to climatic warming) and decreased polar bear survival.
http://www.bioone.org/doi/abs/10.2193/2006-180

Although some subpopulations of polar bears are seeing an increase, more are not. Although the population rebounded from over-hunting pre-1960s, more recently, more populations have seen declines that are largely attributed to the earlier loss of sea ice having an impact on hunting and migration.

Quote:
Canada's Western Hudson Bay population: 22% decline since the early 1980s, directly related to earlier ice break-up on Hudson Bay.
  • Southern Beaufort Sea population along the northern coast of Alaska and western Canada: decline in cub survival rates and in the weight and skull size of adult males; similar observations made in Western Hudson Bay prior to its population drop.
  • Baffin Bay population, shared by Greenland and Canada: at risk from both significant sea ice loss and substantial over-harvesting.
  • Chukchi Sea population, shared by Russia and the United States: declining due to illegal harvest in Russia and one of the highest rates of sea ice loss in the Arctic.
http://www.polarbearsinternational.o...-bears-survive

Of course, the truth lies somewhere in between. Things like the Northwest Passage being clear of ice in recent summers, along with climate data showing that the ice is breaking up earlier than ever before make it difficult to deny that the arctic is warming. Personally, I think that stricter controls on hunting have done more to save the population than anything else, but I don't think that it is alarmist to say that their habitat is changing and that parts of the polar bear population are showing declines.
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:05 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon View Post
Drawing a conclusion based on a small sample size is the same as saying the Flames will win the cup because they won 4 in a row. It's BAD reasoning.
Well, the article in the OP is drawing a conclusion based on a small sample size.

Quote:
New findings published recently that showed a female polar bear in the Beaufort Sea swam nearly 700 kilometres over nine straight days in search of ice paint a picture of a species on the brink, said one Canadian polar bear expert.
The findings, based around GPS tracking of a bear in the Beaufort Sea in Alaska, were the centre of a BBC report this week.

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Old 01-27-2011, 02:13 PM   #26
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The solution is to move the threatened bears to Antarctic ice sheets that have been increasing in size in recent years.
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:22 PM   #27
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Not that I do not believe in the overwhelming amount of evidence that supports global warming... I do, but that article was just some sort of journalistic-make-us-feel-bad story.

Using one polar bear that swam a long way to make the claim that polar bears are spending more time swimming is just poor science, and poor journalism.

Nonetheless, it's a pretty impressive story.

Edit: not critiquing the study (didn't ready it), only the news article.

Last edited by Jake; 01-27-2011 at 02:31 PM.
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:30 PM   #28
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Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck View Post
There is a poster on CP here (forgot his name) who lives in the arctic that said himself that the polar bear die off is hype not supported by reality.
That is a pointless/irrelevant argument. A fisherman really has no idea how well the fish stock is doing overall, despite spending months on end in the ocean.

Not going to bother with the rest of that post...
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:32 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck View Post
Well, the article in the OP is drawing a conclusion based on a small sample size.
Moral of the story, don't get your scientific information from journalists. Any system is complex and has many nuances, and the few paragraph grade 6 level writing of journalism isn't sufficient to properly communicate the complexities or nuances.

Unless one is getting the scientific information from journalists in order to confirm a pre-conceived ideologically based position without having to really understand things, then newspapers and talk radio is perfect because one can just find the ones that support what one wants to think.

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The solution is to move the threatened bears to Antarctic ice sheets that have been increasing in size in recent years.
See, exact point. It's easy to say "antarctic ice sheets" have been increasing in size.

But is that really true? Is it true of sea ice or land ice, both or neither? What's the difference? What's the impact of each? What causes land ice? What causes sea ice and land ice. I assume you know, the answer to all that, since you seem to know that the ice sheets have been increasing in size.
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:37 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck View Post
The solution is to move the threatened bears to Antarctic ice sheets that have been increasing in size in recent years.

Goodbye Penguins.
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:42 PM   #31
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Exactly guys, the original story was more propaganda designed to provoke an emotional response, but it drives me because way too many people buy into it.

Animal populations fluctuate with the weather/climate, always have always will.

A cold wet spring means almost all the Grouse chicks die, a warm dry spring I will see a hen with 12 little ones following her, that's life.

Global warming is/was real, I've seen it happen. When I was growing up in Revelstoke, the local mountains had thick blue glacier ice one them in August, not any more, now there is smooth wet rock in the same places.

Man made global warming I don't believe is real, and don't get me going on the carbon tax trading scam.

Some climatologists are saying we are heading into a mini ice age, a colder period that will last 40 years.
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:42 PM   #32
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:45 PM   #33
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Save me......



Awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
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Old 01-27-2011, 02:56 PM   #34
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9 out of 10 small dogs and bears agree.... the ankles are the tastiest
They grow up








This ones is his ankle...Gross
NSFW!
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Old 01-27-2011, 03:13 PM   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by photon View Post
See, exact point. It's easy to say "antarctic ice sheets" have been increasing in size.

But is that really true? Is it true of sea ice or land ice, both or neither? What's the difference? What's the impact of each? What causes land ice? What causes sea ice and land ice. I assume you know, the answer to all that, since you seem to know that the ice sheets have been increasing in size.
I like to keep my posts brief in general. There is a plethora of information available on it.

Google is your friend....
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Old 01-27-2011, 03:16 PM   #36
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What's troublin' Gus?
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Old 01-27-2011, 03:18 PM   #37
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The real cause of Global Warming :

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Old 01-27-2011, 03:28 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck View Post
I like to keep my posts brief in general.
Sure, easier to express an opinion without having to support it that way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck View Post
There is a plethora of information available on it.

Google is your friend....
I already have the information without checking Google. First I find out the information, then form a conclusion. Using Google to find the information that supports the conclusion I want, that's doing it wrong.

So, what's the real deal on antarctic ice? We're patiently waiting.
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Old 01-27-2011, 03:32 PM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck View Post
I like to keep my posts brief in general. There is a plethora of information available on it.

Google is your friend....
This is the worst type of internet forum post.
__________________
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Old 01-27-2011, 03:44 PM   #40
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The reason why the ice caps are receding is because Sasuke keeps using that goukakyuu no jutsu
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