TWC: Breaking Down the Pacific Division offseason

[TheIronMaiden]

Ryan was a decent player but not a needle mover. Gio and Bennett sting more.

[Johnny Makarov]

Everything in this article will go out the window after a month of Gio in a Kraken uni.

[neo45]

Well here is where the author is right:

- Coleman is a useful addition upfront and is a very good player with the obvious concern being the back end of the contract (like most good players that go UFA)
- Losing Gio for nothing is a disaster for our backend
- Ryan is a useful player who is easily worth the contact he got in Edmonton
- The rest of the additions don’t move the needle much
- Gudbranson addition at 2mil can’t be defended

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by neo45

Well here is where the author is right:

- Coleman is a useful addition upfront and is a very good player with the obvious concern being the back end of the contract (like most good players that go UFA)
- Losing Gio for nothing is a disaster for our backend
- Ryan is a useful player who is easily worth the contact he got in Edmonton
- The rest of the additions don’t move the needle much
- Gudbranson addition at 2mil can’t be defended

If you want to say that, say that.

But writing an article that looks at combined GAR in and out is beyond idiocy.

Imagine if Treliving had traded Ryan and Nordstrom for Coleman and Pitlick - it would be among the better trades in Flames' history.

But based on this article, it would be a disaster: +10 out, +4.2 in, for a net -5.8!

Fire the bum!

[FanIn80]

After yet another disappointing season in which they missed the playoffs in a weak North Division, the Flames had arguably the worst offseason of any team in the Pacific Division. Touted as one of the teams to watch in the offseason for big changes, the Flames didn’t do much of anything to make themselves better. In fact they probably got worse.

On defence the Flames had a disastrous offseason. The team lost their number one defenceman in Mark Giordano for nothing and proceeded to waste the extra cap space on below replacement level players. Giordano’s GAR of 12.9 in 2020-21 was first on the Flames, and fifth in the entire NHL for defencemen.

Among Pacific division teams they added the lowest GAR at -3.2, and lost the second most GAR at 20.5. Their overall GAR change of -23.7 was worst in the division. The Flames needed a big offseason but instead got actively worse. Brad Treliving has essentially handed the keys to Darryl Sutter to see how far the veteran coach can get this team.

Yup. I just posted this same sentiment last week. It's not just a bad offseason. Out of context, it was a bad offseaon -- but IN context it was a disaterous offseason. We went in knowing we needed major changes to get better... not only did we not make any of those changes, and not only did we not get any better... we actually got worse.

Worse. We are a worse roster going into this season than we were last season, and we did nothing to shift the course of this team into a different direction that what we've already seen from them for the last few years. Just another year of lame-duck purgatory while we waste contract years on our most tradable assets, with no intention of either getting something decent in return for them, or accomplishing something decent while we have them.

Like, what planet am I living on right now? In any other industry, a Board of Directors would have stepped in by now and replaced the entire management structure. Failure at this level for this long? Please. If this was any other team than ours, it would be the laughing stock of this site.

Ha ha, stupid Flames?

Edit: Two things: one, of course I'm still a Flames fan. It's a curse that will never lift. Two, I don't care at all about this "Goals against replacement" stat in the article. I don't even know what that is. What I do know is I'm not an idiot and regardless of how the author got there, his findings ultimately match with where my head is already at. It's not rocket surgery to see that we've given out contracts to players who shouldn't even be in the league anymore. I don't need a stat to tell me that. The only real intangible going into this season is a full year of Sutter at the helm.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Yup. I just posted this same sentiment last week. It's not just a bad offseason. Out of context, it was a bad offseaon -- but IN context it was a disaterous offseason. We went in knowing we needed major changes to get better... not only did we not make any of those changes, and not only did we not get any better... we actually got worse.

Worse. We are a worse roster going into this season than we were last season, and we did nothing to shift the course of this team into a different direction that what we've already seen from them for the last few years. Just another year of lame-duck purgatory while we waste contract years on our most tradable assets, with no intention of either getting something decent in return for them, or accomplishing something decent while we have them.

Like, what planet am I living on right now? In any other industry, a Board of Directors would have stepped in by now and replaced the entire management structure. Failure at this level for this long? Please. If this was any other team than ours, it would be the laughing stock of this site.

Ha ha, stupid Flames?

We lost skill while we added size.

We didn't add skilled size, we added bad size - but size nonetheless.

The tale being told this summer is that Treliving built this roster for Sutter - which is a load of hot garbage. Sutter has had success with skilled size and skilled grit. He won with Team Canada quality centres (Carter, Richards), peak Anze Kopitar, peak Jonathan Quick, Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty etc etc etc.

Treliving built a bad team and is hoping Sutter can get him out of this absolute disaster of a roster that he's mismanaged over the last few years.

This summer was the last chance Treliving had to be a proactive manager, and he didn't take the opportunity. Instead he's scraped together a bunch of rag tag pieces, bolted them onto a non-playoff team that lost their #1 defenceman...and that's the plan. That's it. That's what he got paid to do.

[Gordies Elbow]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If you want to say that, say that.

But writing an article that looks at combined GAR in and out is beyond idiocy.

Imagine if Treliving had traded Ryan and Nordstrom for Coleman and Pitlick - it would be among the better trades in Flames' history.

But based on this article, it would be a disaster: +10 out, +4.2 in, for a net -5.8!

Fire the bum!

I have ranted here about GAR and WAR in the past, but I've never seen an analysis that adds them together like this.

While arguably a metric that quantifies "Good players" and "Bad players" - it's a gross simplification. At best, it's providing a glimpse into the rear-view, but I'm not sure that it effectively represents even that.

Calgary lost Giordano, but other players will gain the minutes he played, and how would that affect projections?

Is this any more valid than just saying you like certain players? Or dislike them, even arguing against the metric for players like Ceci?

[djsFlames]

The forward ranks were improved.

Defense lost a step, but has youth and growth from that youth going for it, and added toughness, which it needed.

Gio has been good but he was also undoubtedly slowing down.

I think some of those quotes are a bit dramatic.

We did need the shake up though, no question. But I don't think they're worse either, simply because this group of players complements Sutter better and that will pay off in ways. Something that the super duper advanced analytics don't account for.

[Samonadreau]

It is kind of strange he just added and subtracted GAR and didnt factor in the impact or minutes played

A player could be added with a 3 GAR could be on the 2nd line and have a big impact and if a 13 fwd with low impact and low minutes played was added as -4 it will look like the net is -1, when thats not the case. Probably more like +2. when you factor those in.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

It is kind of strange he just added and subtracted GAR and didnt factor in the impact or minutes played

A player could be added with a 3 GAR could be on the 2nd line and have a big impact and if a 13 fwd with low impact and low minutes played was added as -4 it will look like the net is -1, when thats not the case. Probably more like +2. when you factor those in.

Yeah its kind of a trainwreck in that regard.

Perlini who probably won't even make the team counts as a -6.6 towards the Oilers.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

He is pretty much right.

The Flames got worse this offseason.

But on a positive note if even a couple top 6 guys bounce back to their normal numbers, they are probably still a decent team.

In what way did the Flames get worse? I don't see that at all.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Ryan was a decent player but not a needle mover. Gio and Bennett sting more.

Bennett is a mediocre hockey player. Definitely doesn’t sting losing him. Id put him on the same “sting” as Ryan.

Losing Gio stings bad. Our D corps is weak. At best.

Though a few years ago I remember posting “how could the flames not make the playoffs with the best D corps in the league”. They missed the playoffs.

So maybe this year the opposite will happen

[neo45]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

In what way did the Flames get worse? I don't see that at all.

They built their defense like it’s still 2003


If Michael Stone holds the career high in points in a season for your entire blue line then you can go ahead and assume offense is going to be a major problem back there

[IamNotKenKing]

Losing James Neal supposedly hurts the Oilers, as he was 4.1 GAR.

Thus, either this analysis is terrible, or the Oilers are so terrible losing James Frickin' Neal actually hurts them...

Or, to steal the first respondent's anticipated thunder:

[saillias]

Don't really know the author or the methodology of the GAR stat used. His data source is Evolving Hockey who I understand are prominent in the analytics community, but nobody serious about player analysis will use a metric in this manner. There's also a typo on his Flames graphic where he lists our outgoing players by 2020-2021 WAR rather than GAR. Makes me wonder if his entire blurb is based on bad data and he was comparing incoming GAR to outgoing WAR.