The Ongoing Super Mega Weather Thread v3

[Hack&Lube]

Polar Vortex sucks. Why can't the arctic just keep its cold air to itself? We're supposed to get more leaky arctic air as climate change messes up the gulf stream.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Polar Vortex sucks. Why can't the arctic just keep its cold air to itself? We're supposed to get more leaky arctic air as climate change messes up the gulf stream.

Is this really a climate change thing? I feel like we've had these cold snaps for as long as I can remember and it's just part of life here. Also, in my business we call this "reversion to the mean". Warm December and now a cold January.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by Slava

Is this really a climate change thing? I feel like we've had these cold snaps for as long as I can remember and it's just part of life here. Also, in my business we call this "reversion to the mean". Warm December and now a cold January.

We had cold snaps but they were different. I don't recall polar vortices penetrating as far south growing up, it was never a thing in the news like it is expected to come now every year just like summer smoke season.

Changes in temperature differences can make the polar vortex expand to more southern latitudes. While this phenomenon occurs naturally, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and severity of polar vortex events.

https://www.eesi.org/briefings/view/...ortex%20events.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Is this really a climate change thing? I feel like we've had these cold snaps for as long as I can remember and it's just part of life here. Also, in my business we call this "reversion to the mean". Warm December and now a cold January.

It's a tired trope to hear from many people that chalk up every unpleasant weather experience as 'increasing in frequency/intensity due to climate change' and the over the top new terminology now used to describe long witnessed weather phenomenon. It's frustrating because it's hypocritical to have people say on one side of their mouths 'weather does not equal climate' and then have the same people attribute all weather events that feature low or high temperatures and/or low or high precipitation using new hyperbolic terminology that makes it seem in people's memories that the weather event is 'unprecedented' or a new thing. We didn't hear about Polar Vortexes in 1989, but it sure as heck got down to the -30s and 40s in Alberta in cold snaps in the past.

- 'Polar Vortex' - formally called an arctic outflow
- 'Atmospheric River' - heavy coastal rains
- 'Heat Dome' - used to simply be called a heat wave

All that said, I don't want this post being dismissed as some sort of climate change denialist rant. In my mind the evidence is provided over long term trends of observations. Eg. on the Calgary Weather Records twitter account it was interesting to see that the rain on January 1st this year is not unprecedented in Calgary's history, but that the only other time in 120+ years of history it occurred in 2016. Furthermore on that same account it's interesting to note that for most incidences of warmer temperature records they seem to be herded in more recent years. That's the story and the evidence, not the mere existence of a 'Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Yeti cooler absolute zero Kelvin vortex' in January. "I never remember there being Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious Yeti cooler absolute zero Kelvin vortexes in the 1980s and 90s, must be due to climate change, if only we paid more carbon tax!"

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

We had cold snaps but they were different. I don't recall polar vortices penetrating as far south growing up, it was never a thing in the news like it is expected to come now every year just like summer smoke season.

Changes in temperature differences can make the polar vortex expand to more southern latitudes. While this phenomenon occurs naturally, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and severity of polar vortex events.

https://www.eesi.org/briefings/view/...ortex%20events.

How exactly? I feel like I've gone through cold snaps like this for my entire life in Southern Alberta.

[Sliver]

Yeah, this legit is the first time all winter things have felt normal.

[surferguy]

Bill Matheson used to call these the dreaded Siberian High that would settle in over Alberta for a few days.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

We had cold snaps but they were different. I don't recall polar vortices penetrating as far south growing up, it was never a thing in the news like it is expected to come now every year just like summer smoke season.

Changes in temperature differences can make the polar vortex expand to more southern latitudes. While this phenomenon occurs naturally, climate change is expected to impact the frequency and severity of polar vortex events.

https://www.eesi.org/briefings/view/...ortex%20events.

Honestly, growing up I had no idea whether parts of the mid-west or south were getting super cold temperatures. I just think that's part of being a kid (or whatever).

One thing about the span of media (and not just social media, but more national and global coverage overall) is that we hear all the bad news stories more frequently. When the coverage is all local, there are just less bad news stories that are extreme, so it seems infrequent. But on a national and global scale you see/hear these things all the time and things seem so much worse. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but it can definitely feel worse just because of recency bias.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

How exactly? I feel like I've gone through cold snaps like this for my entire life in Southern Alberta.

And usually for like, a week, not just a few days then right back to being mild

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Slava

Honestly, growing up I had no idea whether parts of the mid-west or south were getting super cold temperatures. I just think that's part of being a kid (or whatever).

One thing about the span of media (and not just social media, but more national and global coverage overall) is that we hear all the bad news stories more frequently. When the coverage is all local, there are just less bad news stories that are extreme, so it seems infrequent. But on a national and global scale you see/hear these things all the time and things seem so much worse. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, but it can definitely feel worse just because of recency bias.

Oddly enough in the vein of this post, the Polar Vortex news / terminology could actually be evidence of warming temperatures over time. In the 2020s temperatures like this are now noteworthy while in the 70s & 80s and before we just called it January or Winter and the phenomina didn't have a specific name.

I now live in the US and one thing I find interesting is historical pictures of places in the US with tonnes of snow, frozen over rivers, and ice jammed streams. Eg. the Ohio river in Cincinnati frozen over in the 1970s. Ice jams on the Mississippi in St Louis Missouri in the 1920s. These are now places where snow and freezing temperatures are infrequent and limited to isolated weather events and the norm isn't to have snow on the ground for extended periods longer than a week. There's people in their 40s & 50s who have never experienced a frozen over Ohio river in Cincy or Mississippi river in St. Louis.

[D as in David]

IIRC, the last two winters each had one of these polar vortexes for a brief period and then, outside of them, we experienced a very mild winter.

[Hack&Lube]

Obviously my statement that I don't recall cold snaps like this or that the weather was different back then is probably reflective of getting older and perception of the world being very different when we were kids. That said, I can't explain it but I don't recall these -40 cold spells just like I don't remember the summers being full of wildfires. It's very anecdotal.

What I have read - and that is likely due to the increased focus on climate change both in academia and in news media these days - is that the warming trend causes the air streams that normally keep cold air circulating only in the arctic to break down. We will get more unstable temperatures and more extreme swings. Overall the trend will be warming, but the break down of things like the gulf stream from rising ocean temperatures etc. is what allows the polar vortex air to slip down to more southerly latitudes.

[btimbit]

Completely anecdotally and without looking it up; maybe it just stands out more these days because rather than just dipping 10-15 degrees to reach -30 or worse, we're jumping all the way there from around 0

[curves2000]

Let's not debate climate change and how it may or may not be affecting what is arguably a very cold few days in Southern Alberta and Canada as a whole. That's just normal. We don't need divisive political chat in the mega weather thread.

Let's get back to the previous conversation we had a while back regarding Parka's and winter jacket's! What is everybody rocking these days for warmth ??

Anybody hear of this company before? Anybody live in Winnipeg that knows if a factory actually exists? https://arctic-bay.ca/

The old British Military adage 7 P's apply to weeks like this one. Proper Planning and Preparation Prevent Piss Poor Performance.

Or we can do the Canadian version

Proper Parkas (Canada Goose?) and Preparation Prevents Pissy People Pissed Off!!!

All jokes aside. It's cold out there so stay warm but I am also kidding about the Parka thing. If anybody has indeed purchased a parka like above, I would like to know their thoughts.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Let's not debate climate change and how it may or may not be affecting what is arguably a very cold few days in Southern Alberta and Canada as a whole. That's just normal. We don't need divisive political chat in the mega weather thread.

Let's get back to the previous conversation we had a while back regarding Parka's and winter jacket's! What is everybody rocking these days for warmth ??

I bought a few down filled vests from Uniqlo from their clearance/sales sections for $30 before the holidays. Just as warm as a Canada Goose vest. I used to have heavyweight parkas but I'm trending toward ultra-light and comfortable for winter. I'm going the way that a lot of climbers are toward lightweight but high-tech. Layering all these together makes a massive difference and adds flexibility compared to one heavy parka. The warmest thing I have in my layering is actually this North Face future-fleece.

https://www.thenorthface.com/en-ca/m...5J7S?color=I0D

[driveway]

If you remember cold snaps "like this one" you're old:

"Alberta gets cold snaps every winter. We can expect at least one," said Alysa Pederson, warning preparedness meteorologist for Environment and Climate Change Canada.

"The last time Calgary hit -30 as the daytime high was actually in 2004 in January. So it hasn't happened where -30 has been our daytime high in a long time."

source


Since 2000, there have been six years (2001, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2023) where the temperature in Calgary never got below -30 at all. In the previous 115 years there were nine such years, one of which was 1999.

If you remember temperatures hitting -40, you're either talking about wind-chill or you're very old. Calgary has not reported a low temperature of -40 or colder since 1954.

Source

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by driveway

If you remember cold snaps "like this one" you're old:

source


Since 2000, there have been six years (2001, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2023) where the temperature in Calgary never got below -30 at all. In the previous 115 years there were nine such years, one of which was 1999.

If you remember temperatures hitting -40, you're either talking about wind-chill or you're very old. Calgary has not reported a low temperature of -40 or colder since 1954.

Source

I think we're just talking about today so far. It's -20. Fairly standard issue for a Calgary day in January.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by surferguy

Bill Matheson used to call these the dreaded Siberian High that would settle in over Alberta for a few days.

"that most dreaded of all meteorological phenomena, the Siberian High", to quote him and that was from the 1980's. Polar Vortex has been around forever.

The man was legendary, his weather forecasts were fantastic.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Sliver

I think we're just talking about today so far. It's -20. Fairly standard issue for a Calgary day in January.

And plus, no need to get pedantic about a specific temperature. Once it hit's -30 or whatever with a slight breeze it's just plain cold. Is it a few degrees warmer than that other time? Maybe, but I don't care.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Let's not debate climate change and how it may or may not be affecting what is arguably a very cold few days in Southern Alberta and Canada as a whole. That's just normal. We don't need divisive political chat in the mega weather thread.

Let's get back to the previous conversation we had a while back regarding Parka's and winter jacket's! What is everybody rocking these days for warmth ??

Anybody hear of this company before? Anybody live in Winnipeg that knows if a factory actually exists? https://arctic-bay.ca/

The old British Military adage 7 P's apply to weeks like this one. Proper Planning and Preparation Prevent Piss Poor Performance.

Or we can do the Canadian version

Proper Parkas (Canada Goose?) and Preparation Prevents Pissy People Pissed Off!!!

All jokes aside. It's cold out there so stay warm but I am also kidding about the Parka thing. If anybody has indeed purchased a parka like above, I would like to know their thoughts.

Ya, keep that brown bag on your head if you think discussing the changing climate in a weather thread is off base. It's not political unless you make it so.