Could only view the first page and a half, but that article seems to be saying that the election doesn't matter to someone's investment portfolio. Not that the election doesn't matter.
The Norpoth model essentially says a party with a competitive primary will when the election.
Yup, my money is on Nate as well. They've been deadly accurate in predicting the last two elections. From Wikipedia:
Silver successfully called the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. In the 2012 United States presidential election, Silver correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia
The SUNY guy is basically of the opinion the polls are wrong, which is of course the only way Nate can be wrong since his model is based off polling. People seem to think Nate is just interjecting his opinion into his model, which he's not outside of how he rates pollsters, which is based on how well the pollsters actually do (so low bias involved there). Nate hasn't had a great cycle, but the primaries were really once in a lifetime type primaries. The general has more or less played out to form even if Trump has been significantly more unhinged than any candidate ever.
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We should have a 'predict the outcome thread'
Who wins, who loses. Electoral count. Swing states, who wins which ones.
Probably a little too early to start it and I will forget...or be too lazy to do it.
Worldcom did this. So did Blackwater. Change the name and hope no one realizes it. Although I think cars when I hear Scion so maybe should have gone with something else.
Quote:
Amidst reports that occupancy rates at Trump Hotels have slipped this election season, the company has announced that new brand hotels will no longer bear the Trump name.
The newest line of luxury hotels, geared towards millennials, will be called Scion, the company said.
“We wanted a name that would be a nod to the Trump family and to the tremendous success it has had with its businesses, including Trump Hotels, while allowing for a clear distinction between our luxury and lifestyle brands,” Trump Hotels CEO Eric Danziger said in a statement.
Although Trump Hotels has said the new name has nothing to do with the eponymous businessman’s presidential campaign, empty rooms at the hotels have caused officials “to reduce rates during the peak season," according to New York Magazine.
Nightly rates at the newly-opened Trump International Hotel in D.C. plummeted below $500 while practically every other five-star property was sold out for the International Monetary Fund conference two weeks ago. And after his remarks about Mexican immigrants, two celebrity chefs backed out of their contracts to open a restaurant in the hotel.
According to Hipmunk, bookings at Trump Hotels plummeted 59 percent during the first half of 2016 and data from Foursquare shows a 17 percent drop in foot traffic at Trump properties since June 2015, when the reality TV star announced his presidential bid.
Rosie GrayVerified account @RosieGray 13m13 minutes ago
Trump has described his campaign at different points today as "beyond Brexit," then "Brexit Plus," and now "Brexit times five"
We should have a 'predict the outcome thread'
Who wins, who loses. Electoral count. Swing states, who wins which ones.
Probably a little too early to start it and I will forget...or be too lazy to do it.
Hillary wins
Hillary wins all swing states
~330 EV's to ~215
__________________ "The great promise of the Internet was that more information would automatically yield better decisions. The great disappointment is that more information actually yields more possibilities to confirm what you already believed anyway." - Brian Eno
The SUNY guy is basically of the opinion the polls are wrong, which is of course the only way Nate can be wrong since his model is based off polling. People seem to think Nate is just interjecting his opinion into his model, which he's not outside of how he rates pollsters, which is based on how well the pollsters actually do (so low bias involved there). Nate hasn't had a great cycle, but the primaries were really once in a lifetime type primaries. The general has more or less played out to form even if Trump has been significantly more unhinged than any candidate ever.
I would argue he would have been better this cycle had he built a model and followed the polls. Primary polling was reasonably accurate in forecasting a trump victory. His problem was he behaved like a pundit.
Outside of the democratic Michigan primary polling has been very good.
The other thing that Nate's model does that other averages don't is focus on the trend lines of polls rather than just the polling numbers to project into the future. So he does have some personal Art baked into the model. It also does some demographic shifts based on adjacent state and national polling to get state averages.
So while he doesn't interject opinion he does take the polling data and process it.
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We should have a 'predict the outcome thread'
Who wins, who loses. Electoral count. Swing states, who wins which ones.
Probably a little too early to start it and I will forget...or be too lazy to do it.
This is my prediction with 18 days left. Utah goes to McMullin. Georgia and South Carolina may slide into the blue as well. Depends on how much of a wave it will be.
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This is my prediction with 18 days left. Utah goes to McMullin. Georgia and South Carolina may slide into the blue as well. Depends on how much of a wave it will be.
That would be rock bottom for Republicans. Losing Texas in particular would be incredibly embarrassing.
This would require a total collapse and sense of hopelessness from the base come Election Day, which, come to think of it, is a plausible scenario.
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Trust the snake.
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Tonight on 360 Trump surrogates were pushing that there will be a Trump win. With all his whining about the election being rigged lately, the conspiracy nut in me started wondering, what if it's the Trump campaign that has it rigged? Then when Trump wins they can claim, " It was rigged against Trump, not Hillary. But we overcame the greatest of odds because Americans came out in record numbers to stop crooked Hillary, and make america great again!" or something along those lines.
Then I drank some more beer. Can't wait till this is over.
