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Jesus the implications of this are overwhelmingly horrible. How many Red states outlaw (directly or indirectly) abortion in the next year? How many Red states make immigration effectively illegal? How many Red states are further gerrymandered into oblivion?
We are going to enter the "states' rights" era very quickly.
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Way off topic, but when Trump inevitably dies, will there just be crickets from former presidents and other leaders? Or just awkward moments where they try to say something nice, can't, and change the subject?
Would prefer brute honesty but that never happens.
I'd reeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaalllllllllly like to find out.
We've always been in a "states' rights" era. This changes nothing in that regard. What changes is the court will have a majority and become a political weapon for have a conservative bias to the interpretation of law. The law suits still have to take place and the arguments still have to be made.
Jesus the implications of this are overwhelmingly horrible. How many Red states outlaw (directly or indirectly) abortion in the next year? How many Red states make immigration effectively illegal? How many Red states are further gerrymandered into oblivion?
We are going to enter the "states' rights" era very quickly.
Most of the right wing judges accept the precedents of the supreme courts previous cases. So cases around Abortion will need to be materially different.
The bigger loss is amount the anti-public laws like the citizens united type rulings. Those types of cases make much less noise.
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Originally Posted by GGG
Most of the right wing judges accept the precedents of the supreme courts previous cases. So cases around Abortion will need to be materially different.
The bigger loss is amount the anti-public laws like the citizens united type rulings. Those types of cases make much less noise.
Every time the SC becomes more conservative, there are a plethora of laws passed in red states to see how far they can push the needle - while the precedents might not be explicitly overturned in the SC (ie Roe v Wade), the states are testing to see what reinterpretation by a more conservative court will produce, and hoping a judgement will reinterpret to their benefit. Another far-right justice definitely means a huge number of "test" laws passed quickly through the courts to see where this new SC will reinterpret.
Just since Trump appointed his newest members, "feeler laws" have been thrown up in everything from environmental protection to abortion to gerrymandering. Conservatives play this game very well since plurality is rarely in their favour.
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Way off topic, but when Trump inevitably dies, will there just be crickets from former presidents and other leaders? Or just awkward moments where they try to say something nice, can't, and change the subject?
Would prefer brute honesty but that never happens.
Oh, if only...
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Every time the SC becomes more conservative, there are a plethora of laws passed in red states to see how far they can push the needle - while the precedents might not be explicitly overturned in the SC (ie Roe v Wade), the states are testing to see what reinterpretation by a more conservative court will produce, and hoping a judgement will reinterpret to their benefit. Another far-right justice definitely means a huge number of "test" laws passed quickly through the courts to see where this new SC will reinterpret.
Just since Trump appointed his newest members, "feeler laws" have been thrown up in everything from environmental protection to abortion to gerrymandering. Conservatives play this game very well since plurality is rarely in their favour.
I agree there will be negative affects of the court being more conservative, one of which appears to be mass hysteria about the end of democracy.
I agree there will be negative affects of the court being more conservative, one of which appears to be mass hysteria about the end of democracy.
Probably because that's pretty clearly the conservative end game. Conservatives are a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them. With the demographic changes that are incoming they know what their best long term play is for power.
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Every time the SC becomes more conservative, there are a plethora of laws passed in red states to see how far they can push the needle - while the precedents might not be explicitly overturned in the SC (ie Roe v Wade), the states are testing to see what reinterpretation by a more conservative court will produce, and hoping a judgement will reinterpret to their benefit. Another far-right justice definitely means a huge number of "test" laws passed quickly through the courts to see where this new SC will reinterpret.
Just since Trump appointed his newest members, "feeler laws" have been thrown up in everything from environmental protection to abortion to gerrymandering. Conservatives play this game very well since plurality is rarely in their favour.
This is a key point: it is not happenstance that cases pushing conservative positions end up at the Supreme Court, rather, there is an organized and concerted effort by conservatives to bring these actions - not on their own merit - but for the purpose of overturning Supreme Court precedent they don't like. So they'll be filing strategic litigation at a higher pace than ever before (and much of it will have an easier path to the USSC, given all the judges appointed under this administration).
To my mind though, the biggest threat all of this poses is the weakening of another constraint on the power of the president. If the Senate won't stop him, and the USSC won't stop him, and Congress can't stop him, and the voters - with gerrymandering, the electoral college, propaganda, and flat out cheating - can't stop him, then the only thing left to stop him is an assassination or a military/civilian insurrection (or, if we're really lucky, a bad batch of cheeseburgers).
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Probably because that's pretty clearly the conservative end game. Conservatives are a lot of things, but stupid isn't one of them. With the demographic changes that are incoming they know what their best long term play is for power.
Hysteria not founded in evidence.
If the belief is business and corporatism drives the government then a conservative dictatorship is not good for business. The continued illusion of choice is required. Hence you see the Lincoln Project trying to restore order.
Trump Populism is not good for Rich Republicans.
When you say Conservative end game which particular Conservative are you taking about.
This was always one of the big fears of a GOP president this term, as you knew Ginsberg was really getting up there...
sadly, that may come to fruition with Trump picking 3 conservative Judges to skew the SCOTUS to be 6-3 in favor of the conservatives
IF McConnell pushes through the nomination during a lame duck session, i think there's going to be a ton of legal challenges... I am hoping that the few GOP with some sense of dignity/morality, like a Romney, Collins, Murkowski will see this for what it is: a way of furthering the country toward a deep chasm.
If Biden wins and the Dems take over the senate - IF the GOP follows through - i hope that use the bully pulpit and stack the court back into balance by appointing 2 more SCJs and then ensure that that number stays fixed at 11
They really need to have Supreme Court justices have 18 year terms and each president appoints 2. Would take a lot of politics out of the timing. The last time there was a fight to increase the size of the court was when FDR was going to push through the new deal.
They really need to have Supreme Court justices have 18 year terms and each president appoints 2. Would take a lot of politics out of the timing. The last time there was a fight to increase the size of the court was when FDR was going to push through the new deal.
Unless someone dies.
A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking today that Ginsberg should have retired in 09 or 13. Like Kennedy did at around the same age.
The Republicans fully understand that if they don't like gay people loving each other in public, they don't like that, they have to have the court. Republicans fully understand that if they don't like brown people coming to America for freedom, they have to have Supreme Court. Whatever cultural war issue they want, whatever strain of bigotry, or xenophobia they want, whatever economic policy they want, they understand they have to have the Supreme Court. Democratic voters, base liberal voters, do not understand that because the party leadership has not made that one to one connection for them, and they haven't been making that one to one connection for them for the past 30 years.
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Last edited by GirlySports; 09-19-2020 at 11:48 AM.
President Donald Trump on Saturday said he wants to move “without delay” to replace Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg with a conservative nominee, setting up an epic battle over the balance of power on the nation’s highest judicial body and the shape of American law for a generation to come as the nation enters the final phase of the 2020 presidential campaign.
Trump, in a social media post, wrote that Republicans “were put in this position of power and importance to make decisions for the people who so proudly elected us, the most important of which has long been considered to be the selection of United States Supreme Court Justices. We have this obligation, without delay!”
A lot of Monday morning quarterbacking today that Ginsberg should have retired in 09 or 13. Like Kennedy did at around the same age.
It’s not really Monday Morning QBing to say someone should have retired at 75. This was a reasonably foreseeable consequence of that.
Yeah deaths would just add a thrid judge to that presidents term which wouldn’t be a big deal and they would just be appointed to to end of whoever died’s term so keep the spacing intact. Also given the fact that you would be giving 18 year appointments instead of lifetime ones you could appoint 50 year olds who would be 68 when done and in reasonable cognitive condition.
I don’t really care where on the political spectrum you are the average ages of senators, presidents and judges right now is alarming. Should be caps of 60 for first term presidents, and senators and 64 for house members. This would cap presidents at 68, senators and house reps at 66 and hopefully judges at 70.
If the belief is business and corporatism drives the government then a conservative dictatorship is not good for business. The continued illusion of choice is required. Hence you see the Lincoln Project trying to restore order.
Trump Populism is not good for Rich Republicans.
When you say Conservative end game which particular Conservative are you taking about.
The Lincoln Project would mostly be celebrating the current Republican regime if it were George W. Bush or Mitt Romney doing it. They have a personal grudge with Trump more than anything. But to act like they are vehemently opposed to Trump from a policy perspective is laughable. If anything their fear is Trump is setting the precedent that will be used by a far left wing government in the future to suppress conservatism. But in general I don't think most people truly believe the Rick Wilson's and Ana Navarro's of the world want Bernie Sanders type policies in place, they just want things like they were under Bush and Reagan where the slimy parts weren't really said out loud.
The GOP end game for years has been the destruction of government institutions, and the elevation of corporate interests. Trump is somewhat of a foil to that on the corporate side, but this is only on a very personal level. He hates Amazon primaily but because Bezos is actually rich as #### and that makes little man Trump, likely not even a billionaire, very angry. And he owns the Washington Post who doesn't lick his orange sack. If WaPo were running OANN level headlines, he'd be praising Amazon non-stop. Goya and MyPillow are examples of him choosing to elevate the bootlickers.
Trump Populism is kind of a myth too, the GOP lifers like McConnell are using the Trump Cult to push through judges and stack the courts in their favor for generations. Trump Populism is not even real when you think about it, Trump stands for literally nothing of substance except thinking Donald Trump is greater than Christ.
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Trump is right though. It’s 2016 Mitch that was wrong and the electorate rewarded him for it.
Dems should definitely fight you need 51 members at all times to get quarum and just one member to call for quarum. So if you can find a way to keep two republicans out of the senate you can grind business to a halt.
If they want to play dirty get a few democratic states to issue quarantine orders for a few senators when they are back from there campaigns to prevent them from leaving the state.
