Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

Tesla killer Lucid is down 20%. Today.

Rivian only down 11%!

You kind of expect it from these young companies, but Tesla should not be down 40% if it is as fantastic an investment as everyone keeps claiming it is.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Rivian only down 11%!

You kind of expect it from these young companies, but Tesla should not be down 40% if it is as fantastic an investment as everyone keeps claiming it is.

Depends on your time horizon. I take it you are one of those investors that knows exactly how to time the market. You've posted all about this, right?

And of course Tesla's drop has zero to do with macro, every other stock sure but not TSLA. As for Rivian, what was the high point again?

..bunch of other stocks are flirting with 52 week lows.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

Depends on your time horizon. I take it you are one of those investors that knows exactly how to time the market. You've posted all about this, right?

And of course Tesla's drop has zero to do with macro, every other stock sure but not TSLA.

Oh good, we've got a Tesla-stan here to tell us all how great Tesla is. Just what this thread needs...

[zamler]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Oh good, we've got a Tesla-stan here to tell us all how great Tesla is. Just what this thread needs...

Tesla is the best stock since 2010, sorry you missed out. But you're the one only talking about Tesla I brought up a whole pile of other companies how about you talk about some of them.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

TSLA down ~40% since mid Sept. Guess the market doesn't really like the Twitter purchase.

Or they don't like the current valuation of TSLA

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

I think that this is more a sign that Tesla has been overvalued. There may be a small component of Musks actions tarnishing his brand which is tied in with that of Tesla. I don’t know when to look at jumping back into the market and putting money into an ETF.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If you're craving large cap tech, MSFT looks better to me. Their cloud offerings are hot and should only grow when IPO's come back. Dynamics is a great small cap offering.

Netflix at today's price makes much more sense than Meta too IMO. I just don't see anything with Meta that screams long term value and not going to buy based on hope they radically change their plans.

But honestly I still want to know what is next for Fuzz after nailing Netflix timing. This time I want to know as you're doing it, not six months later.

As for me, I added some UNH this month. Seems like it will ride out this uncertainty fairly well with a little dividend kicker.

OK, bought some Amazon today at $86.20. It's back down to pre-pandemic price range so figured it's probably nearing a floor for now. See if it bounces a bit. Please don't consider this buying advice!

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

OK, bought some Amazon today at $86.20. It's back down to pre-pandemic price range so figured it's probably nearing a floor for now. See if it bounces a bit. Please don't consider this buying advice!

I have some Amazon too. It is coming back from this price point IMO, just may take some time. It's not a stock to flip.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I have some Amazon too. It is coming back from this price point IMO, just may take some time. It's not a stock to flip.

I don't think it will go anywhere near pandemic levels. It was almost an essential service! It rode that high for awhile, but if it gets anywhere close to $120 I'm selling.

[Fuzz]

AMZN up 10% this morning! LOL. Rivian up 17%, TSLA 6.5%. Seems like a bounce back day.

[V]

Some nice numbers in the CPI report. Everything is up today on the hopes that todays report will slow down the FED.

[bizaro86]

I've been buying Disney below $90. I think the huge pricing power they're showing at the parks will eventually drive the stock higher even if the streaming never ends up better than break even.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I've been buying Disney below $90. I think the huge pricing power they're showing at the parks will eventually drive the stock higher even if the streaming never ends up better than break even.

Do their parks do well during recessions? I'm just thinking the premium stuff is going to really take a hit. But the stock price has been brutalized lately, so it may have room to go up a bit.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Do their parks do well during recessions? I'm just thinking the premium stuff is going to really take a hit. But the stock price has been brutalized lately, so it may have room to go up a bit.

No, recessions are bad for tourism businesses. But I bought passes for Disneyland for next spring, and those same passes are up 17% i price since I bought them. The reservation system and the lack of annual pass sales means they have massively high graded the amount of money they are charging per person per day for the parks.

In a recession they have tons of levers to pull that would induce demand as well. Disney Dining Plan in Orlando has never come back since the pandemic, and was a hugely popular promotion. They also haven't had their Canada resident deals, nor have they had much for "local" deals since reopening hit full steam. Finally, they are actually not even selling new annual passes in either CA or FL. They could pull any of those levers to increase demand in a recession, and while that would hurt margins on the short term they wouldn't be empty.

The biggest risk here (imo) is that linear TV (which for them is mostly ESPN) dies off and streaming is never really as profitable. At $90 or less not everything has to go right.

[manwiches]

ES up 4%+ on the day. 100pt+ spike on better than expected, but still bad CPI numbers.

Boomers gonna be calling their broker to all in META and crypto again, not realizing the prevailing higher time frame trend. lolol.

[Strange Brew]

If there really is a recession, I expect certain purchases (cars, electronics, housing) take a bigger hit than tourism.

The airlines are busier than ever at least in NA. Of course Disney relies on tourists from everywhere.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

If there really is a recession, I expect certain purchases (cars, electronics, housing) take a bigger hit than tourism.

The airlines are busier than ever at least in NA. Of course Disney relies on tourists from everywhere.

That is one of the potential upsides to the parks. International inbound tourism to the US has not rebounded to nearly the same extent as domestic. And well-off folks from the UK, Brazil, and Australia are high value guests (they stay a long time in the DIS hotels and buy merch/food). Now that international travel has less risk of getting stuck somewhere it is rebounding, so that will be an offsetting benefit to them.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

That is one of the potential upsides to the parks. International inbound tourism to the US has not rebounded to nearly the same extent as domestic. And well-off folks from the UK, Brazil, and Australia are high value guests (they stay a long time in the DIS hotels and buy merch/food). Now that international travel has less risk of getting stuck somewhere it is rebounding, so that will be an offsetting benefit to them.

International travel to the US should come back when the dollar goes down.Who knows when that will be.

Disney is a solid stock IMO but you need a long term horizon. They may not have the right CEO, we’ll see.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

International travel to the US should come back when the dollar goes down.Who knows when that will be.

Disney is a solid stock IMO but you need a long term horizon. They may not have the right CEO, we’ll see.

I'm not sure I agree the high dollar is the biggest issue. It doesn't help, but if you're coming from Australia or Brazil to Disney that's already a pretty well off consumer. US travel restrictions have been ended for only a few months, and people taking 8-10 hours flights tend to plan further in advance. Now, a recession in other countries PLUS currency issues (eg the UK) will likely hurt demand, but international is at such a low point right now I think it'll still be a tailwind.

I agree the CEO might not be ideal, but I think the business is strong enough that with a decent time horizon either he'll figure it out or they'll get someone else and the assets are very durable.

[DoubleK]

Ooof. What a stinker from AQN.

The only thing that makes me ok with it is I'm free rolling from the cash I made on IPL.