Democratic Presidential Primaries 2008

[Phaneuf3]

I can't wait to see her quit and I hope it will be after this loss but I think it will wait until after Pennsylvania. If she wins big there she has a chance, albeit not a very good one, to have a do-over in Michigan and Florida and make a comeback. Anything less than a very decisive victory in Pennsylvania and it's time to pack it in.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Phaneuf3

I can't wait to see her quit and I hope it will be after this loss but I think it will wait until after Pennsylvania. If she wins big there she has a chance, albeit not a very good one, to have a do-over in Michigan and Florida and make a comeback. Anything less than a very decisive victory in Pennsylvania and it's time to pack it in.

Basically at this stage the only way Hillary has a shot at winning is to capture the majority of the popular vote, and use that as a basis for asking superdelegates to vote for her.

Watching CNN last night and their magic super computer wizardry in action, it seems as if Hillary has to basically go atleast 60-40 the rest of the way, AND have michigan and florida count, for her to even have a shot at evening up delegate wise.

If there is anyone who has the will to do it though, it's a Clinton.

[ernie]

Be interesting to see how this Ferraro controversy in the Clinton camp will play out.

Ferraro decided to bring race into the discussion and is now saying the backlash is because she's white.

What she aid may or may not be be true but clearly she doesn't know when to just stop talking. And Clinton herself seems to be fanning the flames a bit by not completely distancing herself from it.

[Table 5]

All that will do is just ensure even more blacks go Obama's way. Obama hasn't made this campaign about race whatsoever, so I don't think he's alienated anyone unlike the Clinton campaign has.

I think both candidates have been pretty smart about what comes out of their mouths. It's the people around them who are making trouble.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Johnny 99

Clinton has every right to stay in this election. She looks set to win in Pennsylvania by ten or more points, and she won Texas and Ohio, two massive states, just last week!

Now timeout, Clinton won the Primarys in Texas, however, lost the caucuses. As a result, Obama actually WON 4 more seats in Texas then Clinton did. This in a state where a month before the vote, Clinton had a double digit lead.

People act like Pennsylvania is going to determine the winner. It has 188 delegates at stake. A 10 point win for Clinton will only result in closing the pledged delegate lead by 18, shes 160+ behind.

Further more, on May 6th there are even more delegates at stake in Indiana and North Carolina, both states which are currently favouring Obama. It is entirely probable that even if Clinton wins here "big" state. That she will be even further behind then then she is now.

Clintons superdelegate lead is also dwidling, i think the writings on the wall. The question is, can Clinton read?

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Basically at this stage the only way Hillary has a shot at winning is to capture the majority of the popular vote, and use that as a basis for asking superdelegates to vote for her.

Watching CNN last night and their magic super computer wizardry in action, it seems as if Hillary has to basically go atleast 60-40 the rest of the way, AND have michigan and florida count, for her to even have a shot at evening up delegate wise.

If there is anyone who has the will to do it though, it's a Clinton.

She only has to be close in delegates at convention time, not tied or ahead.

Most likely super delegates will decide the eventual outcome and it wouldn't be a surprise if they chose Clinton over Obama in the end.

There's no way Florida and Michigan can be excluded in those circumstances and they're likely to help her keep things tight.

This all highlights a central point . . . . neither the Republican and Democratic primaries are examples of democracy in action.

Rather, they're closed, private clubs that select leaders within specified rule sets, with the primary goal being to select the ticket that can ultimately deliver the White House.

All Clinton has to do is keep it close from this point and try to convince enough people at the convention that she has a better chance of delivering that goal than Obama.

An analysis - The Downside of the Obama Strategy from a few days ago:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...030703318.html

From today, a look at how each side is overstating their advantages:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/12/us...hp&oref=slogin

A common lament, the Democrats destroying themselves . . . although I don't agree.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...l?nav=hcmodule

On another matter, each side seems to be throwing out a few sacrificial lambs - with the candidates immediately distancing themselves - to get some shots in that will stick.

"Clinton is a monster" was one while "Obama can only win because he's black" looks like another.

Still, this has been a remarkably clean campaign so far compared to what it could be . . . . . and is likely to be.

EDIT: Trying to keep the "Reagan Democrats" from McCain.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics...,4014940.story

Cowperson

[Lanny_MacDonald]

Originally Posted by Table 5

All that will do is just ensure even more blacks go Obama's way. Obama hasn't made this campaign about race whatsoever, so I don't think he's alienated anyone unlike the Clinton campaign has.

That is why I can honestly say that I am excited about this potential election. This could possibly be an election where American politics gets cleaned up and all the dirty politics are left on the bench. An Obama and McCain battle would be between two very different yet honorable men. They would likely stick to the issues and not get down in the mud. Clinton, OTOH, would very much make it a war of personalities and try to drag her opponent into the mire. Seriously, McCain and Clinton are similar in so many ways, and McCain has edge in every single one of those facets, that Clinton would have to get both of the dirty in hopes that she will obfuscate the shortcomings she has in this regard. The comparisons she is using to differentiate herself from Obama right now are the same ones that McCain will use to crucify her come September and October. I would much rather see Obama get through just for the contrast between he and McCain, and have an actual choice for the American people to make.

I think both candidates have been pretty smart about what comes out of their mouths. It's the people around them who are making trouble.

I dunno about that. Hillary certainly has made some comments that are not only detrimental to her position, but to her party. Her saying that She's the best choice for the oval office, then McCain, was just about as brutal as you can get in primaries. She basically said that if she wasn't the Democratic candidate that Democrats better vote for the Republican rather than Obama. Hillary sure stepped in it there, and the DNC has to be weighing things out carefully.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Clintons pledged delegate lead is also dwidling, i think the writings on the wall. The question is, can Clinton read?

I think she understands that her campaign is in trouble, but at times McCain's campaign was in trouble, Obama looked to be well behind Clinton throughout the US and political pundits were already talking about Guilani v. Clinton in the general election.

The fact that this is Hillary's one shot at the presidency and history, that she believes that she owes it to the numerous delegates that supported her thus far and because the swing could come back in her favor will keep her in until the convention.

If she dropped out now, the Dems could concentrate on McCain and the Republicans a lot earlier than August. I know that Republicans are hoping Clinton stays in to keep the Dems divided as long as possible:

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/K...&comments=true

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

ified rule sets, with the primary goal being to select the ticket that can ultimately deliver the White House.

All Clinton has to do is keep it close from this point and try to convince enough people at the convention that she has a better chance of delivering that goal than Obama.

Is Hillary that person though? She's one of the most polarizing figures in her own party, never mind being the most unifiying force the Republicans can hope for. Conservative talking heads aren't just jumping on the Hillary train because they dislike Mccain, they also really want her to win the Democratic candidacy so they have someone to rally against when the big election comes up.

Sure, Hillary might win the election if she is the nominee, but she is still the Republicans best chance to pull it off. Obama basically just has to stay the course (even if people still think's he's without content) and it's his to lose.

[Phaneuf3]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

There's no way Florida and Michigan can be excluded in those circumstances and they're likely to help her keep things tight.

While this is true that in the case of a very tight race Florida and Michigan will count - it won't be with the results they polled earlier. From my understanding, the DNC, both candidates and the states need to agree on the rules and that will definitely result in another vote in those two states. If that's the case, I would guess Obama would win with the momentum he's built since the original primaries were done in those states.

[Cowperson]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Is Hillary that person though?

That's the debate . . . . . but Saint Obama, when the going gets tough, may be mostly air and its a long way down from the perfect perch.

It's a question that came up after Texas and Ohio . . . . can he take a punch?

While this is true that in the case of a very tight race Florida and Michigan will count - it won't be with the results they polled earlier. From my understanding, the DNC, both candidates and the states need to agree on the rules and that will definitely result in another vote in those two states. If that's the case, I would guess Obama would win with the momentum he's built since the original primaries were done in those states.

I assume they'll be re-run. She'd probably win.

Cowperson

[Phaneuf3]

I could see her winning Florida again but if she did not by as nearly a wide margin as she did.

Michigan I'd have to assume would go to Obama. The 40% that voted 'Uncommitted' you'd have to assume were wanting to vote Obama who wasn't on the ballot. So 40% of voters that showed up thought it was important enough to come out to a primary that they knew was completely meaningless while their candidate of choice wasn't on the ballot, just to oppose Hillary. And since that poll, Obama's picked up steam. I simply can't see Clinton taking Michigan.

edit: but I might be seeing things from a skewed perspective as between the two, I would strongly prefer to see Obama win.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by Cowperson

That's the debate . . . . . but Saint Obama, when the going gets tough, may be mostly air and its a long way down from the perfect perch.

Does the general peopulation really pay attention beyond the rhetoric though? It seems like whenever i talk to people about the democratic race, i always get the same buzzwords. Hillary supporter say Obama doesn't have the experience (when in reality she isn't that experienced herself)...while Obama supporters keep going on about "change".

It's not like George Bush had a lot going for him either when it came to content, and he got himself ellected.

[Phaneuf3]

Saying that Hillary has executive branch experience is like saying Yoko Ono was a Beatle.

[Table 5]

Don't forget, Chelsea Clinton has 8 years of experience in the White House!

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Phaneuf3

I simply can't see Clinton taking Michigan.

seconded, I think the UAW endorsement ensured that if they go back Obama will take it.

[FireEgo]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Now timeout, Clinton won the Primarys in Texas, however, lost the caucuses. As a result, Obama actually WON 4 more seats in Texas then Clinton did. This in a state where a month before the vote, Clinton had a double digit lead.

Yup. Texas went to Obama. And according to some of the latest data, Obama won anywhere between 6 and 10 more delegates in Texas, which is a win no matter how you slice it.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/...tes/index.html

[Lanny_MacDonald]

So Cow, what is with this "Saint" Obama stuff? I know the dittoheads are tossing that stuff around, but they're bordeline ######ed and still believe that there are WMDs in Iraq and that Saddam was linked to Al Qeada. Certainly you aren't in alignment with the Limbaugh and Hannity set are you? You're much too intelligent to get suckered into that cesspool of ignorance. What gives?

[Vulcan]

I'm thinking Obama is actually going to make changes and this scares the hell out of Limbaugh and Hanity and their ilk because he hasn't been bought out yet. This is the real reason they ask Republicans to cross over and vote for Hillary because they know McCain won't have a chance. With the Clintons in, it will be just more of the same for big business, just not as overt or stupid. Maybe Obama will actually scrap NAFTA because it compromises national sovereignty in favor of big business and he'll build a new trade agreement.

[worth]