This is a rebuild

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

It took Mackinnon and McDavid 5-6 yrs even to make the playoffs. The flames don’t even have those pieces yet. I think 2030 at the minimum

In both cases the teams had started building years before those players got there and had to retool after they were drafted.

Looking at them as the minimum or the bench mark is completely silly.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

In both cases the teams had started building years before those players got there and had to retool after they were drafted.

Looking at them as the minimum or the bench mark is completely silly.

Just sample, rebuilds take a long time is the point. 3 yrs is not enough .


What do you think it will be?

[flambers]

I don't believe for a second the Flames owners will approve a 6 to 7 year rebuild.

There is a reason, they call it an retool. Or as Conroy stated like "Dallas" model

Guessing 3 to 4 years

[flambers]

Likely lots of draft picks in 2024, 2025 and 2026. Then they will start to add...

That's guess as the plan.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by flambers

I don't believe for a second the Flames owners will approve a 6 to 7 year rebuild.

There is a reason, they call it an retool. Or as Conroy stated like "Dallas" model

Guessing 3 to 4 years

No team approves a 6-7 year rebuild.

It takes 2-3 years to draft a foundation (if your timing is right). Then teams try to build themselves back into a winner - and if they’re a well run organization they have a chance, and if they’re a garbage organization that can’t draft well throughout the draft, can’t make good trades and signings (Buffalo, Edmonton) it falls into disarray and you may have to start over.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

This isn't true.

Florida Panthers won in 2024
1st Overall 2014: Aaron Ekblad
2nd Overall 2013: Sasha Barkov
3rd: Overall 2011: Jonathan Huberdeau

Colorado Avalanche won in 2022
2nd Overall in 2011: Gabriel Landeskog
1st Overall in 2013: Nathan MacKinnon
10th Overall in 2015: Mikko Rantanen
4th Overall in 2017: Cale Makar

Tampa Bay Lightning won in 2021, 2020
1st Overall in 2008: Steven Stamkos
2nd Overall in 2009: Victor Hedman

Pittsburgh Penguins won in 2017, 2016, 2009
1st Overall in 2003: Marc Andre Fleury
2nd Overall in 2004: Evgeni Malkin
1st Overall in 2009: Sidney Crosby

LA Kings won in 2014, 2012
11th Overall in 2005: Anze Kopitar
2nd Overall in 2008: Drew Doughty

Chicago Blackhawks 2015, 2013, 2010
3rd Overall in 2006: Jonathan Toews
1st Overall in 2007: Patrick Kane

Chicago is the only team that started winning when their core players were on their ELCs, and it was in the final year of their ELCs.

Generally, it takes a couple of years of drafting at or near the top to amass the top tier skill required to win (notice how the top-end picks are generally selected in a tight grouping) - but after you assemble that team, it usually takes 4-10 years before you reach the Championship level.

Not true.

Chicago:
- Kane
- Toews

Pittsburgh
- Malkin
- Letang

Boston
- Seguin
- Marchand

You’re right about LA, as the top guys had just come off their ELC, so call it within 4-5 years after drafting their top players, they weren’t just contenders, they were hoisting the cup. These teams make up the bulk of winners over the last 15 years.

Most other teams (Colorado, Tampa, Florida, Washington, etc) had to rebuild after they drafted their top players, which adds to my point.

If you’re not a legitimate contender (like, cup finalist level) in years 3-5 of your top players, it’s probably headed for another rebuild.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Historically, teams that draft top prospects win the Cup while those players are on their ELC, or the chances of them winning at all drops dramatically.

So, assuming Parekh hits and we draft top 5 next year, we should be contenders by 2026-27. If we aren’t… who knows, could take 10 years.

Teams need to have contributing players on their ELCs, for the cap flexibility, but not their first top prospect.

First, build a solid core. Then try to compete while you still have some guys on ELCs.

For comparison sake, this was Hughes D+6 season (2018). And that was after drafting Horvat in 13, Demko in 14, Boeser in 15 and Pettersson in 17.

I know, Vancouver is no good, but it does illustrate that it takes time, and lots of players.

[keenan87]

I think the Flames will be a young and exciting team with hopes of making the playoffs in 2027-28. In time for the arena opening.

Then, I see playoffs as an expectation starting in 2028.

After that point (2029 off-season):
Kadri deal will expire
Huberdeau will have 2 seasons left. Likely a lot easier to trade at that point.

2029-2030 season will be the year the Flames will be a cup contender if all goes well.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Just sample, rebuilds take a long time is the point. 3 yrs is not enough .


What do you think it will be?

I think if we’re not cup winners by 2030 we’ll need to rebuild again.

Playoffs by 2026-27 (2027-28 at the latest).

[flambers]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No team approves a 6-7 year rebuild.

It takes 2-3 years to draft a foundation (if your timing is right). Then teams try to build themselves back into a winner - and if they’re a well run organization they have a chance, and if they’re a garbage organization that can’t draft well throughout the draft, can’t make good trades and signings (Buffalo, Edmonton) it falls into disarray and you may have to start over.

Only time will tell, I would bet the Flames will be a playoff team right around when the new building opens.

Again, GM references the Dallas model, fans are stating rebuild, ripping it apart type of strategy....

Not sure that's the plan.

[Enoch Root]

Kane and Toews were young, but they already had:

Hossa, Sharp, Lang, Keith, Seabrook, Hjallmarsson, Bolland, Byflugien...

[Strange Brew]

I don’t think you get to decide when you’ll be a good team. First things first, some of these draft picks and younger players need to develop into high level players. Not much of that roster currently.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by flambers

Only time will tell, I would bet the Flames will be a playoff team right around when the new building opens.

Again, GM references the Dallas model, fans are stating rebuild, ripping it apart type of strategy....

Not sure that's the plan.

Dallas model isn't something to replicate, although there will be similarities (Huberdeau will be doing his best to try to be half relevant in the exact same way Seguin and Benn have been)

I'm in no way ripping on what the Flames are doing (I love it), but I think this idea that the Flames focusing on a 2-3 year rebuilding being any different than any other team is incorrect. Most teams seeminly "plan" to bottom out for 2-3 years, and then go gangbusters to get back into the playoffs - because they want those young players to get that experience.

I think the Hawks actually signaled this last night. They tried to press the fast forward button by offering their 2025 1st unprotected + in an effort to get another top-5 pick which would have given them their 3 big picks (Bedard, Levshunov, and I imagine Demidov or Lindstrom).

Given we're both in the West, I think we have to look at Chicago as the comparable right now. They have Korchinski who was at 7, we have Parekh at 9. From there, Chicago has taken Bedard and Levshunov - this is what the Flames need to do over the next two years - they need two top picks that can compete with that, because Chicago is building themselves to be a top-team again and we'll need to go through them.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Kane and Toews were young, but they already had:

Hossa, Sharp, Lang, Keith, Seabrook, Hjallmarsson, Bolland, Byflugien...

I think Sharp and Hossa came after. Hossa certainly was a latter addition

[Ped]

Don't think you necessarily need to have stars on their ELC, but you definitely need to have them before they get the big money. That used to be when they hit UFA, but now with the stars it seems to be happening earlier, which may change how things are done.


Either way it's crucial not to overpay on depth guys.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don’t think you get to decide when you’ll be a good team. First things first, some of these draft picks and younger players need to develop into high level players. Not much of that roster currently.

Agreed, key is team has to draft extremely well, in parallel they need to excel at player development.

Look at the Panthers, how many players were acquired via trade or signed

(i.e. two players on the team are drafted)

[flambers]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Dallas model isn't something to replicate, although there will be similarities (Huberdeau will be doing his best to try to be half relevant in the exact same way Seguin and Benn have been)

I'm in no way ripping on what the Flames are doing (I love it), but I think this idea that the Flames focusing on a 2-3 year rebuilding being any different than any other team is incorrect. Most teams seeminly "plan" to bottom out for 2-3 years, and then go gangbusters to get back into the playoffs - because they want those young players to get that experience.

I think the Hawks actually signaled this last night. They tried to press the fast forward button by offering their 2025 1st unprotected + in an effort to get another top-5 pick which would have given them their 3 big picks (Bedard, Levshunov, and I imagine Demidov or Lindstrom).

Given we're both in the West, I think we have to look at Chicago as the comparable right now. They have Korchinski who was at 7, we have Parekh at 9. From there, Chicago has taken Bedard and Levshunov - this is what the Flames need to do over the next two years - they need two top picks that can compete with that, because Chicago is building themselves to be a top-team again and we'll need to go through them.

I hear you, just don't believe that's the Flames strategy

Hawks, are definitely going to spend $$$, they are not going to spend time at the bottom with their star in my view,

Same with Utah, new owners... they are going to spend serious money. That alone should help.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I think if we’re not cup winners by 2030 we’ll need to rebuild again.

Playoffs by 2026-27 (2027-28 at the latest).

Reasonable for playoff but not a real contender

I think it will take the next 3 drafts, 2024-2026 to build the core then about 3 yrs of growing pain from there

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I think Sharp and Hossa came after. Hossa certainly was a latter addition

Yeah, after I wrote that, I remembered that Hossa was a late addition.

Doesn't matter. The discussion is about when the Flames can expect to be competitive. I agree that it is helpful to have players on their ELC, but my point was that it isn't going to be the first core piece that you draft.

And I 100% agree with Strange Brew: you don't get to choose when you're going to be competitive, you simply have to build around the players that you have, as they develop at their own pace.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by flambers

I hear you, just don't believe that's the Flames strategy

Hawks, are definitely going to spend $$$, they are not going to spend time at the bottom with their star in my view,

Same with Utah, new owners... they are going to spend serious money. That alone should help.

What do you think the Flames will actually do at the end of the day? I believe Conroy when he says they won't bottom out on purpose, which I imagine will likely prevent them from getting a Hagens/McKenna - which will hurt, but what we're doing so far is still far, far more entertaining than what happened in 2022/2023.

I love that Conroy is actively not doubling-down on the mess Treliving left as he ran away to cower in Toronto. I hope Conroy's reliance on the draft never goes away.