The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[Senator Clay Davis]

This has gotta be the most poll heavy couple days of the year so far. General takeaway: Hillary seems to have stopped the bleeding, Trump still stuck in the 30's in fourways besides Rasmussen, but still a decent chunk of undecideds out there.

National Polls

NBC/WSJ - Clinton 48, Trump 41; Clinton 43, Trump 37, Johnson 9, Stein 2
Reuters/Ipsos - Clinton 39, Trump 39; Trump 39, Clinton 37, Johnson 7, Stein 2
Economist/YouGov - Clinton 45, Trump 44; Clinton 40, Trump 38, Johnson 7, Stein 2
Rasmussen - Trump 44, Clinton 39, Johnson 8, Stein 2

State Polls

VA - Clinton 44, Trump 37, Johnson 8, Stein 1 (Roanoke)
WI - Clinton 41, Trump 38, Johnson 11, Stein 2 (Marquette); Clinton 45, Trump 38, Johnson 11, Stein 2 (Emerson)
NH - Clinton 47, Trump 38, Johnson 10, Stein 1 (Monmouth)
OH - Trump 42, Clinton 37, Johnson 6, Stein 2 (FOX)
NC - Trump 45, Clinton 40, Johnson 6 (FOX); Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 6 (PPP); Trump 41, Clinton 41, Johnson 11 (NYT/Siena)

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Although there have been a handful of good polls for Clinton, 538 isn't convinced she is rebounding: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...=2016-forecast

However, there are some decent state level numbers for her this morning:

North Carolina: Clinton 41%, Trump 41% (NYT/Siena College)

Virginia: Clinton 51%, Trump 40% (Roanoke)

Colorado: Clinton 44%, Trump 35% (Colorado Mesa)

In addition, she has gained a bit of ground in the USC/Dornsife tracker over the past few days, but I really still don't know what to make of that poll one way or the other.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Looks like Senator Clay Davis is faster and more thorough than I am....

[Senator Clay Davis]

Or I'm just awake earlier lol. I did miss that Colorado poll, but that has to be good for Hillary to see after a few suggested Colorado was becoming closer to toss up than Hillary safe. That USC/LA Times poll is a mess though, a few days ago it had Trump's African American support close to 25% which we all know is never happening. Today it's closer to 5%, which is the more likely scenario. It's an interesting poll to follow because of the wild variances we can see in it, but it's almost more of a project than a true poll.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Another 50-state poll from Google came out today, and results are now incorporated at 538:
https://datastudio.google.com/u/0/#/...9Ed2M/page/YgS

I'm beginning to think these 50-state polls are useless. Although there are results that look "about right" (Trump leading by 1 in Iowa, or Clinton leading by 1 in Ohio, for instance) there are a lot of bizarre ones, like:

- Clinton leading by 4 in both Montana and Utah (with tiny sample sizes of less than 200 for each state).

- Clinton leading by 18 in Wisconsin (no chance she is almost tied nationally but ahead 18 points there--4-5 would be in line with other polls).

- Clinton leading by 1 in Missouri, a state that hasn't voted for a democrat since the last time a Clinton was on the ballot. (And there, sample size is 588)

- Clinton leads by 5 points in Arizona, but is 13 points back in Florida? That is crazy town.

[octothorp]

fivethirtyeight had an article about what they see as the problems with these 50 state polls, although they do give surveymonkey a pass as being a notch above google or ipsos or others. But yeah, too many oddities to take this one too seriously.

[Senator Clay Davis]

You want more polls? You got em. I actually don't think I've ever seen this many polls in such a short period.

IA: Trump 44, Clinton 37, Johnson 10, Stein 2 (Q)
CO: Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 10, Stein 2 (Q); Clinton 41, Trump 34, Johnson 12, Stein 3 (Rocky Mtn PBS)
VA: Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 8, Stein 1 (Q)
GA: Trump 47, Clinton 40, Johnson 9 (Q)
FL: Trump 45, Clinton 44, Johnson 3, Stein 1 (Suffolk)

[troutman]

If my math is right, Clinton has 271 electoral votes locked-up, counting only states she is expected to win by more than 65% probability on 538. Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada and Florida not required.

The map is too hard for Trump to overcome.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by troutman

If my math is right, Clinton has 271 electoral votes locked-up, counting only states she is expected to win by more than 65% probability on 538.

The map is too hard for Trump to overcome.

I would disagree with that as he would only need to tip New Hampshire to win. Which would not be that out of the ordinary.

If he is able to get Nevada which he is favoured right now then 1 more state is not out of the question.

The real question that is uncertain is where does the Gary Johnson vote go as it declines toward election day and does the Jill Stein vote in swing states come back to Hilary.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I assume he's not counting NH.

[troutman]

I think I did include NH, rounding it up to 65%.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Well he's already put Ohio into almost safe territory for the GOP and I think most people didn't think that would happen. So no it's not even close to being too hard to overcome. The fact Pennsylvania looks gone hurts, but he's given himself more paths as well. Wisconsin/Colorado instead of PA gets it done too.

[troutman]

I think it is more likely some swing states will go back in Clinton's direction, but of course anything is possible.

[Senator Clay Davis]

We'll see how the debates go. She can't afford any bad performances at all. I also think in the long run it'll be more beneficial for her if polls show it's close. Beyond driving her people to not be complacent, as we've seen time and again she loses more support when it goes from a two way to a four way. So if it looks close I think she gets some people who say they'll vote Johnson/Stein to come back, since they wanna avoid Trump the most I think.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

We'll see how the debates go. She can't afford any bad performances at all. I also think in the long run it'll be more beneficial for her if polls show it's close. Beyond driving her people to not be complacent, as we've seen time and again she loses more support when it goes from a two way to a four way. So if it looks close I think she gets some people who say they'll vote Johnson/Stein to come back, since they wanna avoid Trump the most I think.

If I'm her during the debate, I go heavy on policy details. Don't attack Trump the person and don't go for soundbites. Just show how woefully unprepared he is to be president.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by troutman

I think it is more likely some swing states will go back in Clinton's direction, but of course anything is possible.

I'd agree you are seeing a high water mark for trump right now as his numbers kind of plateau below 40 which isn't enough even in a 4 way race

[Clarkey]

Stick a fork in Hil.

[PsYcNeT]

Originally Posted by Clarkey

Stick a fork in Hil.

This is some excellent, nuanced analysis.

[Clarkey]

Watch ol Hil in Between Two Ferns, it's the knockout punch.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by rubecube

If I'm her during the debate, I go heavy on policy details. Don't attack Trump the person and don't go for soundbites. Just show how woefully unprepared he is to be president.

Thing is this only works if you think the audience is the smart people who would normally watch political debates. Given the broader appeal of this one, the empty superficial moralizing might actually have the stronger effect. I agree that I'd much prefer if she did what you say and wish that sort of thing was what would convince the majority of people, but I'm more and more cynical about that. She's not really worried about winning over people like you and me.