Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

No, and with this attitude you'll miss out on an eventual excellent investing opportunity.

Nothing stays up forever, nothing stays down forever.

Call me cynical then...

Once we can get some pipelines built then the investment will come (assuming oil prices recover), but that might be years or even decades out... and then who knows what demand for oil will be like once we can get the provinces to agree on building pipelines. Without pipelines, however, our oil is nearly worthless.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Nothing stays up forever, nothing stays down forever.

Well, that's not really true. Historically, industries have risen and then completely disappeared because of societal or technological change. Not saying that will happen here, but the notion is certainly not unprecedented.

[Mr.Coffee]

We aren't anywhere close to oil demand falling off a cliff, especially in this price environment. Those technological or societal changes are driven by economics, usually, where scarcity forces ingenuity in alternate energy sources. So until oil prices skyrocket back, I don't think you'll see alternatives as aggressively explored. What we are experiencing here are several geopolitical events culminating to oversupply issues but that doesn't mean an entire industry just quits or dies.

Climate change is a threat, but then you have natural gas as the logical step change, so that still requires the oil and gas industry. I think in the long run you'll see natural gas demand surge, oil demand slow or decline, however the big overlying factor in everything (as always) are geopolitical events that truly force changing pricing dynamics.

The industry is hurting, it won't die. Think about all the things oil and gas is used for...

[Resolute 14]

Demand for oil, in fact, continues to rise - albeit at a slowing pace due to recession. Assuming the price of oil will never recover is as naïve as assuming it wouldn't crash when it was $100.

[Resolute 14]

Speaking of stocks and Husky cancelling dividends for the year, their stock is in a nosedive. Down 11% this morning and below $12 a share at the moment. I'm sort of wondering if now might be a good time to consider buying and holding for a few years until recovery. Difficulty: I know literally nothing about buying stocks and investing.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by chemgear

http://business.financialpost.com/ne..._lsa=fb0b-a9c6

Canada has lost credibility as an investment destination because of its inability to build export infrastructure, a recently retired senior executive at China’s CNOOC Ltd., one of the country’s top three oil and gas companies, said Tuesday.

After spending $35 billion in Canada’s energy industry when oil and asset prices were high, Chinese energy companies are reeling from the oil crash and cutting jobs and investment. China Investment Corp., the country’s sovereign wealth fund, shut down its Toronto office last month.

After spending $35 billion in Canada’s energy industry when oil and asset prices were high, Chinese energy companies are reeling from the oil crash and cutting jobs and investment. China Investment Corp., the country’s sovereign wealth fund, shut down its Toronto office last month.

“The federal government (in Canada) is a weak government, not like China in comparison,” he said. “Most resources are located only in Alberta … and Alberta is an inland state, they can only transport to the U.S. You go to Pacific, you have to negotiate with B.C. and B.C. has a lot of First Nations. I participated in three (annual LNG) conferences. They continuously talk about First Nations issues. I didn’t see any progress.”

On this note, Petronas (and partners) have sitting back waiting for approval to spend $11.4B for an LNG terminal. Coincidentally, it has now been announced that Petronas is cutting $11.4B in spending. I actually do think the identical numbers is coincidence as there are a number of partners within the Pacific North West project. But,I think we've reached situation critical when it comes to the need for expediting/optimizing our due diligence process.

[Yanda]

Why cant the goverment send us a bail-out like the Ontario automotive industry got in 2008.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Why cant the goverment send us a bail-out like the Ontario automotive industry got in 2008.

That's the plan...

http://www.nationalpost.com/trudeau+...100/story.html

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Why cant the goverment send us a bail-out like the Ontario automotive industry got in 2008.

Or the billion dollars that Bombardier is going to get from the government.

Personally that company is such a bloody sink hole, and badly run, but it gets money from the feds over and over again, when in all realtity it needs to be completely reshuffled.

You won't see a bailout come from the feds to this province, their voting base in Ontario and Quebec would crucify them for supporting big business, and evil red neck anti-environmentalists.

I really don't think a bailout is needed as much as the government needs to stand up for this province in terms of pipelines and transportation initiative and in a hurry.

[Jordan!]

Bailing out the oil industry.. now i've heard it all

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Why cant the goverment send us a bail-out like the Ontario automotive industry got in 2008.

Why would we want one. I'd be quite ashamed if the O&G industry got a bailout. We'd be just as bad as the union folks out east.

I just want the government to stop messing with the oil industry. Set the rules, stay within them, and don't mess with me. That's way too much to ask for in the current climate.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

That's the plan...

http://www.nationalpost.com/trudeau+...100/story.html

I don't think that's really a bailout, as much as that was their original plan during the election, and before the bottom really fell out on things.

All they're doing is saying they'll announce Alberta and Sask plans first.

And if I read it right a billion right now isn't going to make much of a difference to the patch. They're going to give a billion in a separate bailout to one company in Quebec, when that one goes through. See above.

If they were going to follow the auto industry example, it would be money invested right into the producers probably in exchange for shares that the government can sell later.

BTW I'm not a fan of government to corporate bailouts.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

That's the plan...

http://www.nationalpost.com/trudeau+...100/story.html

This isn't going to suncor. It's going to the provinces/cities. Also it's previously announced stimulus (heck, even the 1.5 billion earmarked for the green line).

Not like a direct investment in GM or Bombardier.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Bouw N Arrow

Bailing out the oil industry.. now i've heard it all

Its not though, its the infrastructure spending from their election guidbook.

This isn't about bailing out the Oil Companies.

And if its a billion dollars, that will make very little difference here.

Isn't the provincial government borrowing $34 billion for their infrastructure plans?

[Slava]

Well I'm against government bailouts for private business. I didn't like it when it took place for GM, hate the Bombardier has no real business aside from securing government money from time to time and am against the arena in Calgary for the same reason. I know that the oil industry is hurting, but even so, private business should have to deal with these issues on their own.

[Derek Sutton]

The Northern Gateway is projected as a $10 billion stimulus, too bad thats not how either the current Federal or Provincial governments look at stimulating economies.

[username]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I'm against government bailouts for private business. I didn't like it when it took place for GM, hate the Bombardier has no real business aside from securing government money from time to time and am against the arena in Calgary for the same reason. I know that the oil industry is hurting, but even so, private business should have to deal with these issues on their own.

Totally agree. Let them die a slow death and the industry will be better off in the long run. This low price environment is weeding out a lot of bad management and low performing employees. The industry is going to come out of this downturn leaner and more productive than ever.

[Resolute 14]

Bailing out the auto industry cost us billions. Even I wouldn't criticize Trudeau for learning from that and not propping up the oil industry with direct money. But we do need him to press the industry's interests in terms of getting pipelines moving.

[GGG]

It's a good time to build the green line. And that is a fairly shovel ready project. Hopefully it gets funded.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well I'm against government bailouts for private business. I didn't like it when it took place for GM, hate the Bombardier has no real business aside from securing government money from time to time and am against the arena in Calgary for the same reason. I know that the oil industry is hurting, but even so, private business should have to deal with these issues on their own.

I'm completely on board with this, one of the biggest almost forgotten traits of capitalism is that ever segment for whatever factor will always go through one form or another of a near extinction level kill off, which removes the weak and the slow, and the non innovative. The survivors are usually the ones that were smart enough to ride the crest of the death wave.

Government shouldn't be in the business of bailing out businesses. The auto industry would have been better served if a major or two was allowed to die.