Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The who you will play in the playoffs section on that page must be wrong. They have Chicago as the 2nd most likely team the Flames would play and that is virtually impossible barring a Nashville collapse.

It's pretty clear that that section is based on the old 1-8 conference seeding. It needs to be updated for the current playoff format. The fact that they haven't done so after two years of the new format is a pretty serious knock to the credibility of the whole site.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It's pretty clear that that section is based on the old 1-8 conference seeding. It needs to be updated for the current playoff format. The fact that they haven't done so after two years of the new format is a pretty serious knock to the credibility of the whole site.

Yes, it does appear that section is out of date. I don't think that knocks the credibility of the site though. Just means NHL hockey isn't high on the priority list for the manual work (ie, anything but the simulations).

If you look at the top tabs and rank them in importance from left to right, hockey is "more important" than only rugby. I guess what I'm saying is I still trust the numbers, but the playoff section is old because it's hockey.

[Street Pharmacist]

Poor Minnesota. All 5 games went exactly the wrong way for them. Every single one

[getbak]

I think it's already been posted somewhere, but I don't know if it was in this thread. The Flames have a pretty good Playoff Tracker on their site: http://flames.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=103861

Minnesota has an absolutely brutal final 15 games. They play 13 of those games against teams that are currently in a playoff spot. In contrast, the Flames play 4 of their final 15 games against teams currently in a playoff spot (although, the 10 games between now and then aren't going to be easy).


Minnesota has 3 games each against Nashville and St Louis still to come.

San Jose plays Vancouver and Los Angeles twice more each (how big is the Stadium Series game going to be?), and Vancouver and LA play each other three more times.

[Vulcan]

You would think strength of the schedule would mean a lot in the final stretch but I don't take a lot of value into who a team plays in the last part of the schedule. The teams who are out of it have nothing to lose and often play over their heads. The strong teams who have locked up their position don't play with much incentive and so may be ripe to be upset. The head to head games such as this Wednesday's are the most important in my mind.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by getbak

I think it's already been posted somewhere, but I don't know if it was in this thread. The Flames have a pretty good Playoff Tracker on their site: http://flames.nhl.com/club/page.htm?id=103861

Minnesota has an absolutely brutal final 15 games. They play 13 of those games against teams that are currently in a playoff spot. In contrast, the Flames play 4 of their final 15 games against teams currently in a playoff spot (although, the 10 games between now and then aren't going to be easy).


Minnesota has 3 games each against Nashville and St Louis still to come.

San Jose plays Vancouver and Los Angeles twice more each (how big is the Stadium Series game going to be?), and Vancouver and LA play each other three more times.

If LA comes in 8th how annoyed would you be if you were Nashville. Lead the league in everything and end up being the underdog in your first round series.

[CaptainCrunch]

I cooked this up on Sunday and its a couple of days out of date, but gives an idea of the final schedules

San Jose Sharks: 24 games remaining (GR); average winning percentage of their opponents: .573; games on the road: 12; games against teams below them in the standings: 12.


Vancouver Canucks: 27 GR; average winning percentage of their opponents: .546; games on the road: 14; games against teams below them in the standings: 19.


Winnipeg Jets: 24 GR, average winning percentage of their opponents: .582; games on the road: 13; games against teams below them in the standings: 10.


Calgary Flames: 26 GR; average winning percentage of their opponents: .570; games on the road: 12, games against opponents below them in the standings: 16.


Minnesota Wild: 27 GR; average winning percentage of their opponents: .565; games on the road: 12; games against opponents below them in the standings: 9.


L.A. Kings: 27 GR; average winning percentage of their opponents: .576; games on the road: 11; games against opponents below them in the standings: 6.


Dallas Stars: 27 GR; average winning percentage of their opponents: .574; games on the road: 12; games against opponents below them in the standings: 5.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It's pretty clear that that section is based on the old 1-8 conference seeding. It needs to be updated for the current playoff format. The fact that they haven't done so after two years of the new format is a pretty serious knock to the credibility of the whole site.

Why? It's not a hockey site, but how can math need credibility? Their formula is transparent and they're not claiming and subjective opinions. What does credibility have to do with chance at playoffs using a given formula?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Why? It's not a hockey site, but how can math need credibility? Their formula is transparent and they're not claiming and subjective opinions. What does credibility have to do with chance at playoffs using a given formula?

If they're using the 1-8 format for calculating chance of making the playoffs, then those probabilities are off as well. The divisional + wild-card format makes a significant difference compared to a straight 1-8.

[foshizzle11]

So we basically need to win 15 games or get 30 points over the last 25 games to get into the playoffs?

So let's say we go something like 13-8-4, that is 97 points. So over .500 hockey, this is doable. The Flames definitely have a chance to make the playoffs and I like that they play 16 teams below them still in their last 25 games.

What is the winning percentage of that?

[GettinIggyWithIt]

Looks like Vancouver has 3 games in 4 days starting on Thursday against NYR, NJ and NYI. Hopefully with the injuries on defense, they go 0-3 and we beat Minny and Anaheim. I can hope....

[Red John]

Thought everyone was saying the Kings had so many road games left. Only 11 out of 27?

They're going to make it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Red John

Thought everyone was saying the Kings had so many road games left. Only 11 out of 27?

They're going to make it.

What? No, they have 10 home games and 16 road games remaining

[Red John]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

What? No, they have 10 home games and 16 road games remaining

Misunderstanding Captain crunch's chart then. It states 11 road games left.

[J epworth]

Originally Posted by Red John

Thought everyone was saying the Kings had so many road games left. Only 11 out of 27?

They're going to make it.

They have 16 of their 26 remaining games on the road, 3 of those road games as second half of back-to-backs, and a 5 game road trip still remaining. It's a tough finish for a team that has played more games than any other team the last 3 years.

[Tsawwassen]

After Tuesday's games:

1. Winnipeg (30-19-10) 24 ROW, 70 pts
Vancouver (32-21-3) 30 ROW, 67 pts--second in Pacific Division
Calgary (32-22-3) 29 ROW, 67 pts--third in the Pacific Division
2. San Jose (29-22-8) 27 ROW, 66 pts--and fourth in Pacific Division
3. Los Angeles (26-18-12) 25 ROW, 64 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
4. Minnesota (28-21-7) 27 ROW, 63 pts
5. Dallas (27-22-8) 25 ROW, 62 pts
6. Colorado (24-22-11) 17 ROW, 59 pts

Stars won in regulation
Sharks lost in regulation

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Colorado beating Dallas was huge. Colorado is already done - they would need to go 19-7-0 for 95 pts.

And the loss moves Dallas one step closer to the edge. They now need to go 17-8-1 to hit 95 pts. Not impossible but very unlikely, especially with Seguin out.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I think its safe to assume that Dallas is out of it now. Not only due to their record and position in the standings right now, but losing Segin might just seal the deal there.

Only LA and Min still in the mix that are on the outside looking in. Still, that's 2 too many!

Seguin being out for a while does hurt their chances but that is a rallying point for the team. Benn and Spezza are positive factors for the Stars and winning the past 4 of 5 games keeps them in the race. The Avs are still on the radar and have won their past 2 games. Yep, a torrid pace for them to make the playoffs but weird things can happen.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If LA comes in 8th how annoyed would you be if you were Nashville. Lead the league in everything and end up being the underdog in your first round series.

There is absolutely no way Nashville would be the underdog in that series. They're superior in almost every way this year to L.A. Let's not use past playoff performances as the only metric for success this year. The Kings are not the same team as they were a year ago.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

There is absolutely no way Nashville would be the underdog in that series. They're superior in almost every way this year to L.A. Let's not use past playoff performances as the only metric for success this year. The Kings are not the same team as they were a year ago.

No. Nsh wouldn't be underdogs.
But a big part of the Kings drop is Quick. He has been very ordinary.
Preds are 5-4 with Hutton in net this year.

[SHOGUN]

Damn what an exciting time for us.... I miss watching meaningful hockey.