I'm amazed, frankly, that the Trump campaign hasn't started just circulating deepfakes of Biden saying awful things and trying to get them to catch on.
The funniest thing about this is that apparently, some people do not realize it is fake. Like come on, really? Can Trump supporters really be that dumb?
They are supporting Trump, that shows you how smart they are.
The come to Jesus moment for Republicans is an interesting to watch unfold. Stuart Stevens outlines his trip and finding that Jesus wasn't behind the couch after all.
"Yeah. The idea that you should vote for Donald Trump to stop what’s happening under Donald Trump is sort of illogical.
You have this confluence of long-term factors that are playing out here. There’s an anti-science element that’s developed in the Republican Party, an anti-expert element, an anti-truth element. And they have combined in this toxic brew that is killing tens of thousands of Americans. It’s extraordinary, it’s tragic, but you’re reaching a point now where everybody in the country either knows someone or is one or two degrees separated from someone who has been affected by COVID."
"I think Trump looked at the Republican Party with sort of an animal instinct and realized that this is a group of weak people who don’t really believe in anything, except winning, except power. And if I can give them power, they will allow me to be whatever I want to be. And I think he was right."
"Trump ran on the pretense that to be born in America is to be a victim, that you’re a sucker, that there are these powerful forces out there that are taking advantage of you. It’s a complete reversal of “to be born in the Reagan era was to win life’s lottery—you’re the luckiest person in the world. You’re an American.” For Trump, you’re a chump. And [he’s] going to go out and even the score for you, buddy. It’s a weaponization of white grievance."
"In [1993], Bill Clinton proposes a tax increase. It passes by one vote. At the time, every Republican predicted economic Armageddon. This was a time when Dr. Kevorkian was a popular cultural figure, the assisted suicide doctor, and they refer to it as a Kevorkian tax increase. So, I made a million ads about that. And we won every race in 1994 on that message. Guess what? We were wrong. It helped launch one of the greatest periods of economic expansion and growth in the history of the country. And Clinton was the last president to wrestle the deficit to some sort of standstill. So, I think you have to learn from facts. I think that there’s been a deeply flawed economic theory at the heart of a lot of Republican economics."
"Yeah, I’ll be a Democrat. I have a lot of friends, people I respect, that say, “Well, I can’t vote for Trump, but I can’t vote for [Joe] Biden.” I get that. I never argue with anybody, by the way, about politics. I never cared what my friends [thought] about politics. I have a whole group of friends in my sports world that I think if you ask them who is president, they’d be hard-pressed to answer. But I’m not going to make that choice. I think we live in a two-party system. It’s either Biden or Trump. I spent most of my life criticizing the Democratic Party—I don’t think it’s perfect. But I think the Democratic Party has responded to this moment in a much more legitimate, defensible way than the Republican Party has. So, yeah, I’ll work for Democrats and that’s who I’ll vote for. It’s a party that hasn’t disqualified itself."
The Following 11 Users Say Thank You to Lanny_McDonald For This Useful Post:
"Trump ran on the pretense that to be born in America is to be a victim, that you’re a sucker, that there are these powerful forces out there that are taking advantage of you. It’s a complete reversal of “to be born in the Reagan era was to win life’s lottery—you’re the luckiest person in the world. You’re an American.” For Trump, you’re a chump. And [he’s] going to go out and even the score for you, buddy. It’s a weaponization of white grievance."
Huh. This pretty much sums up why my dad votes Conservative here in Canada. Wealthy white guy near retirement who’s constantly concerned about immigrants getting amnesty and our finance minister being a socialist who wants to raid his retirement fund and give it to the poor and immigrants so they can come here to live a cushy life.
The come to Jesus moment for Republicans is an interesting to watch unfold. Stuart Stevens outlines his trip and finding that Jesus wasn't behind the couch after all.
"Yeah. The idea that you should vote for Donald Trump to stop what’s happening under Donald Trump is sort of illogical.
You have this confluence of long-term factors that are playing out here. There’s an anti-science element that’s developed in the Republican Party, an anti-expert element, an anti-truth element. And they have combined in this toxic brew that is killing tens of thousands of Americans. It’s extraordinary, it’s tragic, but you’re reaching a point now where everybody in the country either knows someone or is one or two degrees separated from someone who has been affected by COVID."
"I think Trump looked at the Republican Party with sort of an animal instinct and realized that this is a group of weak people who don’t really believe in anything, except winning, except power. And if I can give them power, they will allow me to be whatever I want to be. And I think he was right."
"Trump ran on the pretense that to be born in America is to be a victim, that you’re a sucker, that there are these powerful forces out there that are taking advantage of you. It’s a complete reversal of “to be born in the Reagan era was to win life’s lottery—you’re the luckiest person in the world. You’re an American.” For Trump, you’re a chump. And [he’s] going to go out and even the score for you, buddy. It’s a weaponization of white grievance."
"In [1993], Bill Clinton proposes a tax increase. It passes by one vote. At the time, every Republican predicted economic Armageddon. This was a time when Dr. Kevorkian was a popular cultural figure, the assisted suicide doctor, and they refer to it as a Kevorkian tax increase. So, I made a million ads about that. And we won every race in 1994 on that message. Guess what? We were wrong. It helped launch one of the greatest periods of economic expansion and growth in the history of the country. And Clinton was the last president to wrestle the deficit to some sort of standstill. So, I think you have to learn from facts. I think that there’s been a deeply flawed economic theory at the heart of a lot of Republican economics."
"Yeah, I’ll be a Democrat. I have a lot of friends, people I respect, that say, “Well, I can’t vote for Trump, but I can’t vote for [Joe] Biden.” I get that. I never argue with anybody, by the way, about politics. I never cared what my friends [thought] about politics. I have a whole group of friends in my sports world that I think if you ask them who is president, they’d be hard-pressed to answer. But I’m not going to make that choice. I think we live in a two-party system. It’s either Biden or Trump. I spent most of my life criticizing the Democratic Party—I don’t think it’s perfect. But I think the Democratic Party has responded to this moment in a much more legitimate, defensible way than the Republican Party has. So, yeah, I’ll work for Democrats and that’s who I’ll vote for. It’s a party that hasn’t disqualified itself."
The come to Jesus moment for Republicans is an interesting to watch unfold. Stuart Stevens outlines his trip and finding that Jesus wasn't behind the couch after all.
"Yeah. The idea that you should vote for Donald Trump to stop what’s happening under Donald Trump is sort of illogical.
You have this confluence of long-term factors that are playing out here. There’s an anti-science element that’s developed in the Republican Party, an anti-expert element, an anti-truth element. And they have combined in this toxic brew that is killing tens of thousands of Americans. It’s extraordinary, it’s tragic, but you’re reaching a point now where everybody in the country either knows someone or is one or two degrees separated from someone who has been affected by COVID."
"I think Trump looked at the Republican Party with sort of an animal instinct and realized that this is a group of weak people who don’t really believe in anything, except winning, except power. And if I can give them power, they will allow me to be whatever I want to be. And I think he was right."
"Trump ran on the pretense that to be born in America is to be a victim, that you’re a sucker, that there are these powerful forces out there that are taking advantage of you. It’s a complete reversal of “to be born in the Reagan era was to win life’s lottery—you’re the luckiest person in the world. You’re an American.” For Trump, you’re a chump. And [he’s] going to go out and even the score for you, buddy. It’s a weaponization of white grievance."
"In [1993], Bill Clinton proposes a tax increase. It passes by one vote. At the time, every Republican predicted economic Armageddon. This was a time when Dr. Kevorkian was a popular cultural figure, the assisted suicide doctor, and they refer to it as a Kevorkian tax increase. So, I made a million ads about that. And we won every race in 1994 on that message. Guess what? We were wrong. It helped launch one of the greatest periods of economic expansion and growth in the history of the country. And Clinton was the last president to wrestle the deficit to some sort of standstill. So, I think you have to learn from facts. I think that there’s been a deeply flawed economic theory at the heart of a lot of Republican economics."
"Yeah, I’ll be a Democrat. I have a lot of friends, people I respect, that say, “Well, I can’t vote for Trump, but I can’t vote for [Joe] Biden.” I get that. I never argue with anybody, by the way, about politics. I never cared what my friends [thought] about politics. I have a whole group of friends in my sports world that I think if you ask them who is president, they’d be hard-pressed to answer. But I’m not going to make that choice. I think we live in a two-party system. It’s either Biden or Trump. I spent most of my life criticizing the Democratic Party—I don’t think it’s perfect. But I think the Democratic Party has responded to this moment in a much more legitimate, defensible way than the Republican Party has. So, yeah, I’ll work for Democrats and that’s who I’ll vote for. It’s a party that hasn’t disqualified itself."
The most amazing part about that poster is that Trump wasn't even lying. I went back and found a news story on it.
Quote:
Modelling showed the disease could kill between 100,000 and 240,000 people if Americans stay at home and limit their contact with others, Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus coordinator said on Tuesday.
In fact, the modeling was probably wrong, given that the US has done an incredibly poor job. So he was wrong about that bit. He usually lies about the numbers, too.
I’m too lazy to check but I’m betting the 1.5 to 2.2 number is if they did nothing at all since February.
Even bragging about his current numbers could be misleading. We’re not even close to finished. It’s like bragging about covering the 35 point spread but it’s only halftime.
I’m too lazy to check but I’m betting the 1.5 to 2.2 number is if they did nothing at all since February.
Even bragging about his current numbers could be misleading. We’re not even close to finished. It’s like bragging about covering the 35 point spread but it’s only halftime.
It was based on modeling from March17th so since not much was done at that point, then yest, that's the starting point. So really the model over-predicted by a huge amount(perhaps 10 fold), and a good response would have resulted in 10 000-24 000 deaths.
She is very bullish now on a Biden win (99.5%) and the Dems winning the Senate (91.9%). I am somewhat optimistic, but not as enthusiastic as this.
Yeah I'm the same. 69% chance for Biden in Florida doesn't seem right.
The part about education level changing the polling was interesting and one of the reasons the polls might be more accurate. The much lower number of undecideds has been talked about for a while now too.
I like how the update talks about the "unilateral disarmament" in the ground operations. Even just the general campaigning. I really wonder if that's going to result in a big polling error in the end, or if the negative enthusiasm will make up for that.
__________________ Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Rachel Bitecofer has updated her 2020 predictions for September. It is a long piece with detailed appendixes. I will try to highlight some sections when I have time to read it all, and I would like to hear what Iowa, Photon, New Era etc. think about her predictions.
She is very bullish now on a Biden win (99.5%) and the Dems winning the Senate (91.9%). I am somewhat optimistic, but not as enthusiastic as this.
The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same That Said, The Introduction of a Revised Negative Partisanship ModelSpices Things Up Considerably!
I think her hypothesis is very smart and we shall see how right she is in November. Intuitively, her comment that voter preferences now are relatively “inelastic” seems right to me, and I agree with the comment that this reflects a democracy in crisis.
I think her hypothesis is very smart and we shall see how right she is in November. Intuitively, her comment that voter preferences now are relatively “inelastic” seems right to me, and I agree with the comment that this reflects a democracy in crisis.
I think a big part of it is the two party system. It's not all that democratic to begin with.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
I think a big part of it is the two party system. It's not all that democratic to begin with.
I agree but worry that we aren’t that much better in Alberta sometimes in that regard. Heck, for years we had virtually a ONE party system in this province. I worry that we have a bit of inelasticity in voter preferences in the rest of Canada too, but maybe I’m just feeling gloomy tonight.
I think a big part of it is the two party system. It's not all that democratic to begin with.
A two-party system is pretty much inevitable when there is one president being elected, and no ranked-choice voting. The US would be in much better shape if it got rid of the EC and brought in RCV.
Yeah I'm the same. 69% chance for Biden in Florida doesn't seem right.
The part about education level changing the polling was interesting and one of the reasons the polls might be more accurate. The much lower number of undecideds has been talked about for a while now too.
I like how the update talks about the "unilateral disarmament" in the ground operations. Even just the general campaigning. I really wonder if that's going to result in a big polling error in the end, or if the negative enthusiasm will make up for that.
So Nate Silver has apparently started a twitter war with Bitecofer on this, calling it “bad math”. He came across a little nasty about it, but the issue is her model ignores the fact that polling errors are not independent events but correlated.
I’m not smart enough to weigh into the math debate. What I liked was her theory that vote preferences are not particularly elastic, and haven’t been for a few years. That “feels” right to me, based on my hunch and nothing else. If it’s true, movement in the polls is mostly statistical noise and this cake has been baked for a while.
Crap! I can't believe I spent $2200 in shipping supplies owned by this Trump deplorable last month.
Quote:
Uihlein, along with her husband, Richard, ranks as the biggest donor to the Republican Party, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, having given more than $40 million US so far in 2019-20. She has been outspoken in her criticism of the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic, complaining that government-mandated shutdowns have been costly and disruptive for business.
"It's overhyped," she told the Guardian newspaper in April. "And I don't wish anybody ill will. You know I don't wish that, but I think it hurts certain ages in certain places and largely in a lot of parts of the world. In the country it's not as rampant as the press would have you make it."
Wisconsin, where Uline has its corporate headquarters and major distribution centres, reported a record number of COVID-19 diagnoses this past weekend, with 1,582 new cases on Sept. 13 — a worrying trend for a state with a population of 5.86 million. Neighbouring Illinois, where Liz Uihlein and her husband live, has been averaging about 2,000 cases per day among its 12.8 million residents — a stark contrast with Ontario, population 14.75 million, which reported 313 new cases on Monday, 251 on Tuesday and 315 on Wednesday.
