Russia invades Ukraine

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Pointman

It's one of the myths of this war. Russians did accidentally post a victory article on the second day of war, and immediately removed it. It does not imply, that the news agency, let alone Putin, really expected to win in two days. The article could have been accidentally published on the first or seventh day as well. The article Itself does not claim that Russia won in two days, it only claims Russia won. It's also quite a stretch to suggest that Putin leaked his war plans to media beforehand.

The realistic scenario is that once the war started, a staff writer was tasked with writing a victory article. It took him two days to write. Then he accidentally published it. It had nothing to do with Putin's expectations. Then western propaganda ran with it.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...se-arrest.html

Putin 'has placed the head of the FSB's foreign intelligence branch under house arrest because he is furious at security services for failing to warn him' that Ukraine could fiercely resist invasion

The FSB security service allegedly told Putin Ukraine was weak, riddled with neo-Nazi groups, and would give up easily if he invaded

Tells you everything you need to know about Putin's mindset of this war.

Yes he thought he could win Kyiv in 2 days.

He boasted about able to take Kyiv easily as early as 2014.

https://time.com/3259699/putin-boast-kiev-2-weeks/

[holden]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

WHO and Reuters are garbage sources?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2022-03-11/

I apologize for that, some lines got crossed.



There has been alot of QANONesque chatter about “bioweapons labs” flying around, and theres so much misinformation.


My bad.

[Sainters7]

It almost seems like he expected Ukrainian citizens to roll out the red carpet for him like when Hitler annexed Austria..just world class bad intel. Watched an interesting clip the other day (which I think was originally posted in this thread) of a Kremlin former advisor saying traditionally its more likely there to overthrow the Russian/Soviet leader than to give them bad news. I see not much has changed.

[LChoy]

Originally Posted by holden

I apologize for that, some lines got crossed.



There has been alot of QANONesque chatter about “bioweapons labs” flying around, and theres so much misinformation.


My bad.

Thanking this post as it's rare to see someone apologize these days and admit their post wasn't correct. Too many people these days double down on their opinion after the fact

LChoy

[GordonBlue]

Details to follow, but headlines on CNN state

"Russia expands strikes and makes advances."

"US official says Mariupol faces more pressure and Chernihiv is isolated. Evidence suggests an eastern Ukraine city has fallen."

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Firebot

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...se-arrest.html



Tells you everything you need to know about Putin's mindset of this war.

Yes he thought he could win Kyiv in 2 days.

He boasted about able to take Kyiv easily as early as 2014.

https://time.com/3259699/putin-boast-kiev-2-weeks/

Putin says two weeks here, not two days. Two days is just a ridiculous number It would be nothing short of moronic to expect that. You don't capture 4 millions city protected by a fairly modern army, in two days. I get that this narrative is very popular, but it's overstated. Sure, Ukranians are fighting hard. Sure, this whole war looks like a catastrophic mistake for Russia. But 2 days thing is just a myth by western propaganda. Two weeks I could give you, maybe.

[sureLoss]

Claims there has been a 3rd Russian Major General killed in Ukraine. Also claims that such senior officers on the front lines suggest there is a lack of "situational awareness" from subordinates or that soldiers are scared to move forward.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin says two weeks here, not two days. Two days is just a ridiculous number It would be nothing short of moronic to expect that. You don't capture 4 millions city protected by a fairly modern army, in two days. I get that this narrative is very popular, but it's overstated. Sure, Ukranians are fighting hard. Sure, this whole war looks like a catastrophic mistake for Russia. But 2 days thing is just a myth by western propaganda. Two weeks I could give you, maybe.

At this point 2 weeks is moronic.


Russia is taking it on the chin. There is no doubt this was viewed as more of a cake walk than it has turned out to be.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin says two weeks here, not two days. Two days is just a ridiculous number It would be nothing short of moronic to expect that. You don't capture 4 millions city protected by a fairly modern army, in two days. I get that this narrative is very popular, but it's overstated. Sure, Ukranians are fighting hard. Sure, this whole war looks like a catastrophic mistake for Russia. But 2 days thing is just a myth by western propaganda. Two weeks I could give you, maybe.

That is 2014 boasting speak. He planned 2022 to be 2 days based on his beliefs.

It's not a myth when Putin just canned 8 generals and put his head of FSB on house arrest. That is not what a person does if things are going according to plan.

Not sure why you are calling this western propaganda

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-two-days.html

Even US assessment of Russia's plan last month well before the attack showed Russia overrunning Kyiv in 2 days.

The reason why the US gave this assessment was because they had internal information within the Kremlin of exactly what the plan was, and US intel was 100% right.

It's just that...Russia proved itself to be much more incompetent then even the biggest outside critic could ever contemplate.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Claims there has been a 3rd Russian Major General killed in Ukraine. Also claims that such senior officers on the front lines suggest there is a lack of "situational awareness" from subordinates or that soldiers are scared to move forward.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

The Eastern Bloc we terrible as Unit & Sub-unit tactics.

Especially their NCO's. If you read up on those that have been involved in the training missions to former Eastern Bloc countries they all say the say thing. There is a distinct lack of ingenuity and ability to self-direct.

It is even worse when you chuck in conscripts.

[afc wimbledon]

If you dont think you will meet any resistance then how long it takes to 'liberate' a country is how long it takes to drive your column from it's staging areas to the capital and hold a press conference on the steps of the parliament declaring it free, which in the case of the Ukraine would be around 2 days, because even without any resistance large armies dont move quickly, now it would be moronic to think you could do that if you supposed the Ukrainians would fight back at all but clearly Putin didn't think that anyone would fight, that this war would be just a case of driving to Kyiv in a couple of days and then telling the west 'look, they really like us'.

Believing that is clearly moronic but once you believe that everything else the Russians have done makes sense

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Cheese

whaaaaaa? Am i behind in American english?

damn kids and their slang

[OutOfTheCube]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Putin says two weeks here, not two days. Two days is just a ridiculous number It would be nothing short of moronic to expect that. You don't capture 4 millions city protected by a fairly modern army, in two days. I get that this narrative is very popular, but it's overstated. Sure, Ukranians are fighting hard. Sure, this whole war looks like a catastrophic mistake for Russia. But 2 days thing is just a myth by western propaganda. Two weeks I could give you, maybe.

Location: Moscow, Russia

Hmm...

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Firebot

That is 2014 boasting speak. He planned 2022 to be 2 days based on his beliefs.

It's not a myth when Putin just canned 8 generals and put his head of FSB on house arrest. That is not what a person does if things are going according to plan.

Not sure why you are calling this western propaganda

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-two-days.html

Even US assessment of Russia's plan last month well before the attack showed Russia overrunning Kyiv in 2 days.

The reason why the US gave this assessment was because they had internal information within the Kremlin of exactly what the plan was, and US intel was 100% right.

It's just that...Russia proved itself to be much more incompetent then even the biggest outside critic could ever contemplate.

If Putin is arresting his generals then a coup is the likely outcome, they are broke frightened and well armed, this is the very best news for Ukraine and the west

[curves2000]

Listen, let's not bicker for the sake of bickering. Putin may have thought this was going to be a cake walk to overthrow the government but so did the rest of the world in some sense. In that case, everybody was wrong except for the Ukrainian forces and people.

If we remember, after the first few days of the war is when NATO and EU countries decided to start sending in supplies and weapons in huge quantities. One stat I remember reading a few weeks ago had a $50 million arms order in the fall take weeks to be delivered from the US but the recent $500 million order was 80% delivered in 2 days.

A few days into the war a very high ranking US military officer /general?? Was on CNN blasting the Ukrainian President for telling his people to fight. His thoughts were that getting to Kyiv was going to happen the next day or two and than the result wouldn't change anything other than having thousands of poor civilians killed for no reason. He based this on his experience in tours in Iraq and Afghanistan as if those were well run operations!

Regardless, western intelligence regarding the invasion have turned out to be spot on but at the same time a colossal failure thus far regarding the outcome going into the 3rd week. +1 for the Ukrainian's .

In another matter, I really hope that Zelensky stays focused and doesn't get too bogged down with some of this media attention globally. Addressing the EU parliament with its many NATO countries, having calls with US Senators and Congress is important as they are the powerbrokers and influential ones militarily speaking. Addressing the Canadian Parliament may be a good moral booster and a feel good story for us and the Ukrainian Canadians who are part of our country but we aren't doing what he is asking for. Lot's of signs of support and flag waiving, photo ops and more but Zelensky keeps asking for the same thing from a military point of view.

[Fuzz]

Zelensky is doing exactly what he should be doing. Petitioning for outside help. That's where he is most valuable to his country.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

The Eastern Bloc we terrible as Unit & Sub-unit tactics.

Especially their NCO's. If you read up on those that have been involved in the training missions to former Eastern Bloc countries they all say the say thing. There is a distinct lack of ingenuity and ability to self-direct.

It is even worse when you chuck in conscripts.

I think you know this, but there is a distinctive difference between Eastern Block and Western NCOs.


In the Russian Army a Sergeant is a conscript like the Privates around him, they are just selected during their basic training to go to a different school based around their intelligence and reliability. They have no more experience then the privates, they just have a little bit better training in leadership, weapons use excetera.


This is different then the NCO's in the Western Military where they spend lots of time in training and gaining experience before they're promoted. In Russia its a insta promotion early in their basic training. Its why you see junior officers in the Russian Military doing the job of Sergeants and warrant officers and corporals in the West.

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Zelensky is doing exactly what he should be doing. Petitioning for outside help. That's where he is most valuable to his country.

Absolutely nothing wrong with that, not that I am suggesting that he goes out into the battlefield with a weapon.

I just know that Canada was extremely reluctant to send in deadly military weapons until the very last hour and almost by pure force from other countries. Canada put a disproportionately high faith in the diplomatic channels when the intelligence showed something else.

What I don't want is for Zelensky to plead with the Canadian Parliament for a no fly zone, for more support militarily and such when we won't deliver what he wants. Sanctions, some weapons and other signs of support for sure we have and can provide.

I just don't want a lot of prideful MP's running around and happy go lucky over this and using it to rally support if you aren't going to what is being requested in the most serious of terms. There is an optics to these things sometimes and offers of support, ribbons and flags but little action on what is being done.

[GirlySports]

I get that the world is mad at Russia, but these sanctions against the oligarchs are odd to me. And seizing yachts and #### just seems illegal. What claim does Germany have against the yacht of some dude because his home country invaded a different (non-Germany) country? Maybe I just don't understand the money entanglements.

Abramovich apparently started making lots of money when Yeltsin was president. He bought Chelsea back in 2003. Since then, we've mostly had two decades of the world embracing Russia. They hosted the Winter Olympics and the World Cup. But now that they've invaded Ukraine, we're retroactively saying it was bad all along? I'm not saying it#wasn't#bad all along, just that the world didn't seem to care and Russia has been fully integrated into the world economy (until now). It's odd that we're going back and saying that anyone made money there - no matter how long ago - is now a criminal and must be punished by other countries because Putin invaded Ukraine.


The sanctioned oligarchs made their money through kleptocracy, but they stole from the Russian people. Maybe banking laws allow Germany and England to seize assets, but the oligarchs have been flaunting their wealth throughout Europe for decades so I don't understand why Putin invading Ukraine made them act on their wealth. It does seem crazy that Roman loses all he invested in buying Chelsea, because they are forcing a sale and not letting him touch the proceeds of the sale.

[Matata]