Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Why do people bring this up as if it's some sort of silver bullet that because the Conservatives didn't do it, it absolves the Liberals of any blame.

But to actually answer your question, I'll share exactly what I stated in a different post - that yes, the Liberal government shares much of the blame for this (I won't be so pompous as to say that the blame falls squarely on the Liberals, there's many factors at play)


Liberals have been in power since 2015. Shale gas started being a thing in the US around 2007, and Canada's most prominent shale gas resources (Montney/Duvernay) are a bit more difficult to extract than the US stuff, and a lot more difficult to get to market, given the geographic proximity to existing infrastructure. The large fracs required for adequate exploitation of these resources didn't really start being a thing until 2016/2017 (after the Liberals were in power). It took time for technology to catch up to how best to develop the resource.

So to answer your question, a lot of these projects did try and get off the ground in the early 2010s under a conservative government, but the well results weren't quite good enough to support the billions of dollars of investment needed. That's changed over the last 5-6 years, but the current policies of the Federal government have made it too difficult and onerous to get a terminal built in a reasonable amount of time.

I'll take issue with that.
In a lot of ways the Montney was the proving grounds for a lot of the multi stage, multi well fracs that are now being used elsewhere.
The big advantage in Canada was the land situation, where companies could develop large swaths of land with huge multi well pads and long laterals.
That has only been a thing in a lot of the states (Texas in particular) because companies have shown small land owners the benefit of pooling land/mineral rights to allow for Canadian style development. Prior to that, the # of wells, and the length you could drill was limited due to the patchwork land situation, and that killed all of the efficiencies that Canadian had developed.
Once they got that straightened out, we saw the current shale oil/gas boom in the US.
The technology and techniques were there waiting for them, they just needed to figure out how to deploy them.

The reason a lot of the Canadian projects stalled in the 00/10s was the price of gas going into the toilet in ~2008, partially due to the global financial crisis, and partially due to the glut of supply precisely because of the type of development we're talking about.

I work for a company that operates in Canada and the US, and I can tell you that the technology flow, specifically when it comes to this kind of development, is very much more North to South than vis versa.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

I'll take issue with that.
In a lot of ways the Montney was the proving grounds for a lot of the multi stage, multi well fracs that are now being used elsewhere.
The big advantage in Canada was the land situation, where companies could develop large swaths of land with huge multi well pads and long laterals.
That has only been a thing in a lot of the states (Texas in particular) because companies have shown small land owners the benefit of pooling land/mineral rights to allow for Canadian style development. Prior to that, the # of wells, and the length you could drill was limited due to the patchwork land situation, and that killed all of the efficiencies that Canadian had developed.
Once they got that straightened out, we saw the current shale oil/gas boom in the US.
The technology and techniques were there waiting for them, they just needed to figure out how to deploy them.

The reason a lot of the Canadian projects stalled in the 00/10s was the price of gas going into the toilet in ~2008, partially due to the global financial crisis, and partially due to the glut of supply precisely because of the type of development we're talking about.

I work for a company that operates in Canada and the US, and I can tell you that the technology flow, specifically when it comes to this kind of development, is very much more North to South than vis versa.

You work at a company that's worked on both sides of the border? I've actually worked assets on both sides of the border, and a lot of this is not true. Specifically, what you describe about land is actually not fully accurate. In some cases (eg. North Dakota), pooling is actually much easier than it is Canada. I would definitely also say that companies that originally operated in Canada and then go to the US struggle with the transition and realize a lot of what they did in Canada doesn't work in the US.

I also didn't say that techniques in Canada (and Montney/Duvernay in particular) weren't used in the US or weren't the testing ground for a lot of technology. But the US basins that took off in the early stages of the shale revolution didn't need the technology or techniques to be successful. Canada's did and it took time for the technology to get there.

But to directly address your comment - the huge slickwater fracs that you now see as the norm did not start to catch on until 2015, with much more muted development before that. These were the fracs that really opened up production rates in a lot of these basins. The point of my comment was that these basins needed technology to catch up to make large-scale development possible, and this happened largely after the Harper government was out of power.

[Yoho]

Mud slinging starting to heat up Federally.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1603445931613077509

https://twitter.com/user/status/1603481382281437203

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by Torture

Agreed.


Except if they fast tracked it to the Supreme Court it would have lost on the basis of not doing enough Indigenous consultation or environmental review.....like it did in 2018.


https://globalnews.ca/news/7131724/t...ne-timeline-2/

Well, not necessarily. If they fast-tracked the BC government's continued challenges that had no legal standing, they would have cleared that hurdle earlier.

As for losing on the basis of improper consultations or reviews, I think that's debatable. I think there's a reasonable argument to be made the the Supreme Court would have upheld that the consultations and environmental reviews were sufficient. Again, the goal posts were continually moved on these reviews.

Neither the National Energy Board (NEB) nor the proponent failed in its consultation duties, and all attacks on the NEB process but one (limited review of marine impacts) were rejected. Supreme Court of Canada decisions in 2017 re-confirmed that structured environmental assessment and regulatory processes could discharge the Crown’s duty to consult, if properly structured.1 These decisions were cited by the Court, but ultimately appeared to receive little weight in the final analysis. As with the FCA’s 2016 decision in Gitxaala Nation,2 the Court held the Crown to a high standard when consulting after the completion of the NEB’s regulatory process.

https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/...line-expansion

This is also very tangential to my original point, which was: natural gas can and will be an important part of the transition to a low carbon economy. Canada can either be a part of that with its world class work force ethically and consciously producing a resource this world greatly needs, or stand idly by on a perceived moral high ground and watch others take that market share from us and prosper as a result. Thus far, the government has shown that they would rather do the latter. Investing in renewables and investing in producing natural gas don't have to be mutually exclusive, but for some reason that's how they are being viewed, and it's deterring Canada from being a world leader in both.

The government could easily say "We're open for business on resource development and LNG. We recognize that in the current world, we need to responsibly produce resources, and we are proud that Canada produces our resources with strict regulations and regard for our environmental future. As a result, we will fast track the regulatory review of any LNG projects. Here is a clear list of rules and regulations you need to follow, and if you do, your project will be approved. Also, there will be an additional X% resource extraction tax placed on these projects, which will go directly to a renewable energy fund. Public and private companies can then put together renewable energy proposals for us to review and provide funding for". If you want to call that a carbon tax, great - but you should also make it clear that you support and encourage the development of our own resources, and provide a framework to do it efficiently and predictably.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Well, not necessarily. If they fast-tracked the BC government's continued challenges that had no legal standing, they would have cleared that hurdle earlier.

As for losing on the basis of improper consultations or reviews, I think that's debatable. I think there's a reasonable argument to be made the the Supreme Court would have upheld that the consultations and environmental reviews were sufficient. Again, the goal posts were continually moved on these reviews.

BC challenges never amount to much while the nuisance permit actions by mainly Burnaby were effectively dealt with the NEB. The only thing that the SCC would have done is just send it back to the NEB.

As for losing on the basis of improper consultations or reviews, I think that's debatable. I think there's a reasonable argument to be made the the Supreme Court would have upheld that the consultations and environmental reviews were sufficient. Again, the goal posts were continually moved on these reviews.

There really no debate at all. The FCA found that the project to evaluate the environmental impact of increased tanker traffic. The NEB failed to considered it at all.

[PeteMoss]

I'm no O&G expert.. but 90% of the problem is we are a zillion miles away from any potential customer. If Russia hadn't attacked Ukraine - there would be no market outside of Asia for this stuff. I can't imagine companies are lining up to build wildly expensive projects that depend on Russia decided to attack other countries to be make money.

Could/should we ship to Asia - sure but the idea that an industry that somehow stops investment when there is uncertainty from royalty review is going to start building out infrastructure that only makes money if Russia goes crazy doesn't seem likely.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'm no O&G expert.. but 90% of the problem is we are a zillion miles away from any potential customer. If Russia hadn't attacked Ukraine - there would be no market outside of Asia for this stuff. I can't imagine companies are lining up to build wildly expensive projects that depend on Russia decided to attack other countries to be make money.

Could/should we ship to Asia - sure but the idea that an industry that somehow stops investment when there is uncertainty from royalty review is going to start building out infrastructure that only makes money if Russia goes crazy doesn't seem likely.

A part of the problem Canada still imports a lot of oil instead of buying the domestic product.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I'm no O&G expert.. but 90% of the problem is we are a zillion miles away from any potential customer. If Russia hadn't attacked Ukraine - there would be no market outside of Asia for this stuff. I can't imagine companies are lining up to build wildly expensive projects that depend on Russia decided to attack other countries to be make money.

Could/should we ship to Asia - sure but the idea that an industry that somehow stops investment when there is uncertainty from royalty review is going to start building out infrastructure that only makes money if Russia goes crazy doesn't seem likely.

Is Canada further from Europe and Asia than the US Gulf Coast? Because they've got LNG terminals operational there.

Is Canada further from the USA than Venezuela? Because the US just approved pulling in crude from Venezuela, while WCS volumes sit apportioned and are trading at a heavy discount. It boggles my mind that Canadians aren't outraged by this. This directly affects government income because of reduced royalties from these volumes trading at heavy discounts, which directly affects services the government can provide (health care, education, infrastructure, ya know, all the nice-to-haves). But it's ok, they'll just tax the people more to get that income.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1604267436391424001

[GGG]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Is Canada further from Europe and Asia than the US Gulf Coast? Because they've got LNG terminals operational there.

Is Canada further from the USA than Venezuela? Because the US just approved pulling in crude from Venezuela, while WCS volumes sit apportioned and are trading at a heavy discount. It boggles my mind that Canadians aren't outraged by this. This directly affects government income because of reduced royalties from these volumes trading at heavy discounts, which directly affects services the government can provide (health care, education, infrastructure, ya know, all the nice-to-haves). But it's ok, they'll just tax the people more to get that income.

The US LNG facilities except the one in Portland(I think) were all constructed as import facilities for gas in the prefracking days.

I agree with you on the oil front.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1604267436391424001

Aren't polls at this time kinda useless? PP doesn't even have to do anything yet besides give JT lame nicknames. Might want to wait to see what the voters say after PP has to actually tell Canadians what he's going to do to improve the country and not just insult people.

[PostandIn]

It’s pretty hard to take criticism of PP ‘namecalling’ seriously when the go to move of the current PM is to slander anyone that doesn’t agree with him as a racist or a bigot. And if you don’t think PP hasn’t been across the country talking to ordinary joes about their economic conditions non-stop since he became oppo leader you haven’t been paying attention. Might have something to do with the poll numbers. That and things like the fact that Trudeau has now institutionalized cabinet corruption with his inaction and complete void of leadership on the latest cabinet-level law breaking.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by PostandIn

It’s pretty hard to take criticism of PP ‘namecalling’ seriously when the go to move of the current PM is to slander anyone that doesn’t agree with him as a racist or a bigot. And if you don’t think PP hasn’t been across the country talking to ordinary joes about their economic conditions non-stop since he became oppo leader you haven’t been paying attention. Might have something to do with the poll numbers. That and things like the fact that Trudeau has now institutionalized cabinet corruption with his inaction and complete void of leadership on the latest cabinet-level law breaking.

Lol the little dweeb isn't going to change any minds in Ontario though. Who cares if he is talking to Canadians who are already going to vote for him.

You think he is going to win anything from Ontario after giving the deplorables an olive branch in Ottawa? After the attack ads from the Libs it would be hard for them not to have a majority this time around.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Is Canada further from Europe and Asia than the US Gulf Coast? Because they've got LNG terminals operational there.

Is Canada further from the USA than Venezuela? Because the US just approved pulling in crude from Venezuela, while WCS volumes sit apportioned and are trading at a heavy discount. It boggles my mind that Canadians aren't outraged by this. This directly affects government income because of reduced royalties from these volumes trading at heavy discounts, which directly affects services the government can provide (health care, education, infrastructure, ya know, all the nice-to-haves). But it's ok, they'll just tax the people more to get that income.

Prior to the keystone pipeline spill last week there was barely any apportionment since Line 3 was completed. The crazy differential we've seen over the last few months is from the SPR releasing heavy crude, and Urals being sold to Asia for $30+ discounts. There is no export demand to Asia and India with Russian Urals selling at fire sale prices there. The other factor is elevated natural gas prices adding to the cost of refining a heavy barrel in the gulf coast.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by PostandIn

It’s pretty hard to take criticism of PP ‘namecalling’ seriously when the go to move of the current PM is to slander anyone that doesn’t agree with him as a racist or a bigot. And if you don’t think PP hasn’t been across the country talking to ordinary joes about their economic conditions non-stop since he became oppo leader you haven’t been paying attention. Might have something to do with the poll numbers. That and things like the fact that Trudeau has now institutionalized cabinet corruption with his inaction and complete void of leadership on the latest cabinet-level law breaking.

Well that's obviously not true. And btw my dislike of PP is certainly not an endorsement of Trudeau. Have a feeling those poll numbers won't mean much of anything by the time the next election rolls around and PP has to actually answer tough questions about what he'd actually do, and not just throw out the 'Justinflation' stuff.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by PostandIn

It’s pretty hard to take criticism of PP ‘namecalling’ seriously when the go to move of the current PM is to slander anyone that doesn’t agree with him as a racist or a bigot. And if you don’t think PP hasn’t been across the country talking to ordinary joes about their economic conditions non-stop since he became oppo leader you haven’t been paying attention. Might have something to do with the poll numbers. That and things like the fact that Trudeau has now institutionalized cabinet corruption with his inaction and complete void of leadership on the latest cabinet-level law breaking.

So you’re for name-calling or against it?

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Prior to the keystone pipeline spill last week there was barely any apportionment since Line 3 was completed. The crazy differential we've seen over the last few months is from the SPR releasing heavy crude, and Urals being sold to Asia for $30+ discounts. There is no export demand to Asia and India with Russian Urals selling at fire sale prices there. The other factor is elevated natural gas prices adding to the cost of refining a heavy barrel in the gulf coast.

SPR releases have skewed to light sweet for a little while now (certainly longer than the Keystone spill). And to my point, Venezuelan crude is heavy, so obviously the US feels it needs to get that crude from somewhere and Canada is not it.

[burn_this_city]

Majority of SPR releases were sour medium until they basically exhausted those stocks. Venezuela produces sub 700kbpd and it will take years for anything meaningful to return from there.

No one will be adding oilsands production with Pathways coming down the pipe, the big 5 all agreed to cut emissions by 30% from 2019 levels by 2030. Any capacity adds will have to include 100% of the additional carbon emissions on top of their prior commitments. Hard to justify adding additional capacity when you need to factor in the CCS within the decade.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by GGG

The US LNG facilities except the one in Portland(I think) were all constructed as import facilities for gas in the prefracking days.

And even that facility and the pipeline serving it were initially planned and permitted as an import facility, so most of the pre-construction groundwork was already done before they switched gears to what is now primarily an export terminal.

There isn't a single US facility comparable to what's needed in Canada (purpose-built export facility with a long pipeline to supply it) that has gotten off the ground.

[PostandIn]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Lol the little dweeb isn't going to change any minds in Ontario though. Who cares if he is talking to Canadians who are already going to vote for him.

You think he is going to win anything from Ontario after giving the deplorables an olive branch in Ottawa? After the attack ads from the Libs it would be hard for them not to have a majority this time around.

That’s right. He’s got pedo, abortion, two-tier medicine and the general purpose ‘anti-science’ up his sleeve for the campaign trail to keep 905 and 416 in the Liberal column.