Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0 - Page 185 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Fuzz · 11-08-2022, 09:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GGG

Who won Calgary Elbow?

Not the constituents.

Locke · 11-08-2022, 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Not the constituents.

I dont know...they dont have a UCP MLA so some might consider that a win.

That being said, am I the only one who things Shandro is totally going to pull a 'Kevin Spacey' from Horrible Bosses?

As he's been appointed to watch over the vacant riding he's going to take the salary and benefits and just tack them on top of what he already gets?

RedHot25 · 11-08-2022, 10:20 PM

She only received ~ 50% of the vote.

And down 10 percentage points from the last election.

And couldn't drive much of a turnout from voters.

And lost Medicine Hat as well.

Not good signs for the UCP.

Ozy_Flame · 11-08-2022, 10:22 PM

NDP won Medicine Hat.

That is the story of the election.

Smith can't even get a strong majority.

UCP is in serious trouble with results like that.

RedHot25 · 11-08-2022, 10:27 PM

But I'm just posting tweets.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1590200316925861888

GGG · 11-08-2022, 10:40 PM

Thought it might be interesting to compare those numbers to Prentice

2012 Len Webber 54%, WR 34%, Lib 9%, NDP 4. 52% turnout
2014 Prentice - Bi 58%, WR 30%, lib 4, NDP 4 36% turnout
2015 Prentice 40%, NDP 32, WR 18 52.5% turn out

So Prentice at least improved support from the previous guy.

RedHot25 · 11-08-2022, 10:42 PM

https://twitter.com/user/status/1590216624627658752

Locke · 11-08-2022, 10:48 PM

Frankly, Albertans didnt elect her. They should call an election tomorrow.

calgarygeologist · 11-08-2022, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

NDP won Medicine Hat.

That is the story of the election.

Smith can't even get a strong majority.

UCP is in serious trouble with results like that.

Did the NDP actually win Medicine Hat? It looks pretty close and without a breakdown of the advanced voting that might not be true. In the Medicine Hat polls the NDP are up by just over 100 votes. The UCP won the three advanced voting locations in particular the Redcliff Legion which was almost +300 UCP.

Dunnyberg · 11-08-2022, 10:57 PM

Only a small piece of Medicine Hat is even in the riding. Two neighborhoods on the north side and a bit of downtown and the hospital.

FireGilbert · 11-08-2022, 11:39 PM

The combined PC and Wildrose vote in Brooks Medicine Hat in 2015 was 62%. Then in 2019 the UCP and an ex UCP independent combined for 73%. Smith plus two fringe right wing parties received 53% this time with the NDP and Alberta Party eating up the swing.

I'm no pollster but if a similar swing holds in the general election I've got the UCP losing 28 seats.

Yoho · 11-09-2022, 03:33 AM

https://twitter.com/user/status/1590209644718624768

Ozy_Flame · 11-09-2022, 05:33 AM

The fact that Smith lost any ridings in her electoral district which is mainly rural -and, in a parachute district with less percentage than Glasgo AND as UCP Premier - has to be problematic here.

UCP strategists will 'chuckle' for the Tweets, but any Alberta political analyst will see this as a major problem for the caretaker Premier who doesn't have a mandate from Albertans.

Less than 50% turnout in a rural riding, more than 45% of whom voted against the premier? In Alberta?

Oh wow.

Slava · 11-09-2022, 06:13 AM

The thing is plenty of byelections aren’t great for a sitting government. There’s a huge difference between a byelection and general election. People use it to “send a message” or that kind of thing because they’re not changing government. We’ve seen before in ridings like Calgary Glenmore where the opposition parties do incredibly well, but the general election comes around and it’s not the same situation.

And frankly, the party that should be extremely concerned after last night is the Alberta Party. You had a byelection on the home turf of your leader and got wrecked. That’s not boding well.

Ozy_Flame · 11-09-2022, 06:16 AM

B/MH is not the 'home turf' of the Alberta Party. That's simply the district in which the AP leader - Barry Mori#####a - happen to be acclaimed because there were no other runners for the AP leadership. If the AP has a home riding anywhere, it's probably Calgary-Elbow (how ironic).

Slava · 11-09-2022, 06:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

B/MH is not the 'home turf' of the Alberta Party. That's simply the district in which the AP leader - Barry Mori#####a - happen to be acclaimed because there were no other runners for the AP leadership. If the AP has a home riding anywhere, it's probably Calgary-Elbow (how ironic).

Well it’s the riding where he was a popular mayor and probably where he stood the best chance of being elected. He’s not running in Elbow. The only reason that would be their home turf is because they won it once by pouring everything in.

Ozy_Flame · 11-09-2022, 06:46 AM

Of course he's not running in Elbow, Kerry Cundal will be. And she stands a chance there based on historical precedent.

Don't confuse Mori####a's stomping grounds in B/MH as home turf for the AP. Those are two different things.

Slava · 11-09-2022, 07:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Of course he's not running in Elbow, Kerry Cundal will be. And she stands a chance there based on historical precedent.

Don't confuse Mori####a's stomping grounds in B/MH as home turf for the AP. Those are two different things.

I know you're all about the AP, but this is the end for them. People who are looking to stop the UCP aren't voting for them, they're voting NDP. I happen to think that Cundal is a good candidate, but she's not likely winning Elbow either.

Despite your protests, those results last night are a death knell for the AP. If Mori####a can't come in second in that election, it's pretty clear what's coming. A two=way fight between the NDP and UCP across the province. That leaves the AP squeezed out as would-be supporters vote strategically.

Ozy_Flame · 11-09-2022, 07:42 AM

Protests? I don't vote AP anymore, haven't in a while, and don't even live in the province. This has nothing to do with me. Weird, weird take.

You're also changing the argument here. B/MH is not AP 'home turf', which is your original point. It's not - it's Barry's home turf. Again, two different things.

Stick to the topic at hand if you're going to attempt to defend your argument.

Ashartus · 11-09-2022, 07:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slava

I know you're all about the AP, but this is the end for them. People who are looking to stop the UCP aren't voting for them, they're voting NDP. I happen to think that Cundal is a good candidate, but she's not likely winning Elbow either.

Despite your protests, those results last night are a death knell for the AP. If Mori####a can't come in second in that election, it's pretty clear what's coming. A two=way fight between the NDP and UCP across the province. That leaves the AP squeezed out as would-be supporters vote strategically.

I agree, the party leader with a high local profile only comes in 3rd, the party isn't a factor. Much as I'd like to see them succeed, for the next election this is probably really a good thing so they aren't siphoning votes off the NDP.