Russia invades Ukraine

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Putin expected to take Kiev in 2 days. That was proven by the leaked pre written state news that had a Feb 26 date.
.

It's one of the myths of this war. Russians did accidentally post a victory article on the second day of war, and immediately removed it. It does not imply, that the news agency, let alone Putin, really expected to win in two days. The article could have been accidentally published on the first or seventh day as well. The article Itself does not claim that Russia won in two days, it only claims Russia won. It's also quite a stretch to suggest that Putin leaked his war plans to media beforehand.

The realistic scenario is that once the war started, a staff writer was tasked with writing a victory article. It took him two days to write. Then he accidentally published it. It had nothing to do with Putin's expectations. Then western propaganda ran with it.

[Flacker]

Originally Posted by Pointman

It's one of the myths of this war. Russians did accidentally post a victory article on the second day of war, and immediately removed it. It does not imply, that the news agency, let alone Putin, really expected to win in two days. The article could have been accidentally published on the first or seventh day as well. The article Itself does not claim that Russia won in two days, it only claims Russia won. It's also quite a stretch to suggest that Putin leaked his war plans to media beforehand.

The realistic scenario is that once the war started, a staff writer was tasked with writing a victory article. It took him two days to write. Then he accidentally published it. It had nothing to do with Putin's expectations. Then western propaganda ran with it.

The fact the release exists, shows Putin's mindset. I hope for nothing but a quick resolution, but at this point it feels like that is naive. Special Operation not war, was a massive kick of the hornets nest.

[FlameOn]

MOD map updates for the day. Minimal movement across the board with Russian's increasingly bogged down with heavy urban resistance so are committing a more forces to encircling cities.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1501887804833419273

https://twitter.com/user/status/1502003531112501249

Larger map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...ion_of_Ukraine

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Pointman

It's one of the myths of this war. Russians did accidentally post a victory article on the second day of war, and immediately removed it. It does not imply, that the news agency, let alone Putin, really expected to win in two days. The article could have been accidentally published on the first or seventh day as well. The article Itself does not claim that Russia won in two days, it only claims Russia won. It's also quite a stretch to suggest that Putin leaked his war plans to media beforehand.

The realistic scenario is that once the war started, a staff writer was tasked with writing a victory article. It took him two days to write. Then he accidentally published it. It had nothing to do with Putin's expectations. Then western propaganda ran with it.

I think you'd have to be pretty naïve to believe the regime mouthpieces weren't given their marching orders prior to the invasion. Now there are no news agencies in Russia, only scripted pablum for the masses like the glory days of the Soviet Union.

[holden]

Originally Posted by Pointman

It's one of the myths of this war. Russians did accidentally post a victory article on the second day of war, and immediately removed it. It does not imply, that the news agency, let alone Putin, really expected to win in two days. The article could have been accidentally published on the first or seventh day as well. The article Itself does not claim that Russia won in two days, it only claims Russia won. It's also quite a stretch to suggest that Putin leaked his war plans to media beforehand.

The realistic scenario is that once the war started, a staff writer was tasked with writing a victory article. It took him two days to write. Then he accidentally published it. It had nothing to do with Putin's expectations. Then western propaganda ran with it.

'accidentally published' by who exactly?

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Flacker

The fact the release exists, shows Putin's mindset. I hope for nothing but a quick resolution, but at this point it feels like that is naive. Special Operation not war, was a massive kick of the hornets nest.

Honestly, I think you're both wrong.

I think Pointman's scenario is less likely than Putin expecting to have won and to of had victory messages queued up with media.

I think you're wrong to think communications for every scenario haven't been written. I used to work in communications for a public company. We had internal and external communications (press releases, web copy, shareholder messages, on-hold messages, spokesperson key points, etc.) for a couple dozen scenarios that could have affected our business.

I have recently thought about all our doom and gloom planning - accidents, war, equipment failure, terrorism, sabotage, etc - that we had poured hundreds of hours into planning communications around. We never did write anything for a pandemic and the idea never even came up as something to plan for. Hah.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Probably north of $200M US worth of jets right there for the lot

That was my guess - $20 bucks each

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Honestly, I think you're both wrong.

I think Pointman's scenario is less likely than Putin expecting to have won and to of had victory messages queued up with media.

I think you're wrong to think communications for every scenario haven't been written. I used to work in communications for a public company. We had internal and external communications (press releases, web copy, shareholder messages, on-hold messages, spokesperson key points, etc.) for a couple dozen scenarios that could have affected our business.

I have recently thought about all our doom and gloom planning - accidents, war, equipment failure, terrorism, sabotage, etc - that we had poured hundreds of hours into planning communications around. We never did write anything for a pandemic and the idea never even came up as something to plan for. Hah.

1. Sure Putin did expect to win. You don't start a war if you don't expect to win it.
2. It's quite possible that he did tell media to prepare victory articles, however such an order would be redundant given that media prepare articles for possible future outcomes anyway.
3. The fact that Russian news outlet had a victory article ready two days into the war, and accidentally published it, does not necessarily mean that Putin expected to win in two days.
4. Regardless, the whole Russian"operation" does seem naive and based on flawed if not puzzling assumptions. I can't comprehend what Russia was supposed to gain EVEN if Putin wins in two days.

[nik-]

"operation"

[afc wimbledon]

Putin wouldn't have started the war if he didnt think they could take Kyiv in 2 days and the Ukrainians would surrender soon after, nothing about the Russians tactics, equipment or objectives suggests anything other than a Russian plan that expected no resistance at all, everything about Russia's approach to this war screams that they didnt expect any opposition at all, not even slight push back.

Their timetable was based on how long would it take to drive to Kyiv declare a provisional Government and put up a Russian flag over the Parliment building, I doubt they expected a single gun to be fired

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Putin wouldn't have started the war if he didnt think they could take Kyiv in 2 days and the Ukrainians would surrender soon after, nothing about the Russians tactics, equipment or objectives suggests anything other than a Russian plan that expected no resistance at all, everything about Russia's approach to this war screams that they didnt expect any opposition at all, not even slight push back.

Their timetable was based on how long would it take to drive to Kyiv declare a provisional Government and put up a Russian flag over the Parliment building, I doubt they expected a single gun to be fired

They amassed 190K troops and only moved in like a third of them during first week. Most of the troops in the first wave were green and armament was old. There were reports earlier that Russians are about to run out of supplies this weekend, which means they took two-three weeks worth of supplies. They attacked from three directions while you only need one direction for a cake walk to Kyiv. They clearly did expect resistance and did expect to fire guns.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Pointman

They amassed 190K troops and only moved in like a third of them during first week. Most of the troops in the first wave were green and armament was old. There were reports earlier that Russians are about to run out of supplies this weekend, which means they took two-three weeks worth of supplies. They attacked from three directions while you only need one direction for a cake walk to Kyiv. They clearly did expect resistance and did expect to fire guns.

I'm sorry but everything you have posted is an indication they didnt expect any resistance, they sent in a smaller portion #### troops with #### equipment, divided their forces into 5 or so thrusts, didnt amass any particular area of overwhelming force, basically that didnt do a damn thing to beat the Ukrainians at all, they didn't expect them to fight.

If they had expected a fight they would have brought their best troops in their best equipment to spearhead an overwhelming thrust in one theatre.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The longer this goes on the more worn out the Ukraines are going to get and they don't likely have reserves so they can rest men and maintain equipment.

One thing Ukraine is not short on is soldiers. Active army of 200k+, plus a reserve force of 900k, and a population of 44M with a long history of mandatory sercice. Women also serve in pretty significant numbers, making up for something like 15% of their armed forces before the war started. (That's pre-war numbers.)

Russia has a massive equipment advantage, and many of those Ukrainian reserves are quite far removed from their mandatory military service years, but in terms of warm bodies with at least some training, Ukraine probably has a significant advantage, and logistics likely make it much easier to provide rest for Ukrainian troops, who after all are on home ground.

Plus the number of foreign volunteers is apparently not insignificant.

Ukraine still has most of their reserves working their day jobs rather than putting on uniforms.

[combustiblefuel]

Originally Posted by Pointman

They amassed 190K troops and only moved in like a third of them during first week. Most of the troops in the first wave were green and armament was old. There were reports earlier that Russians are about to run out of supplies this weekend, which means they took two-three weeks worth of supplies. They attacked from three directions while you only need one direction for a cake walk to Kyiv. They clearly did expect resistance and did expect to fire guns.

No offense., your position is valuable for 8n cite buy
T I highly suspect yout
R info forming said views have been highly censored before they get to you.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Probably north of $200M US worth of jets right there for the lot

Way north, The Su-35's are at least $100m each, the 24's are old junk now but they cost $25m back in the 90's.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's true that the Americans have a pathogens storage and research facility in Kyiv. One of the biggest in the world.

I don't think their intentions are what the Russians say, but there is a pretty big danger if that facility gets compromised somehow.

Apparently that's not true at all:

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/so...ction-program/

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's true that the Americans have a pathogens storage and research facility in Kyiv. One of the biggest in the world.

I don't think their intentions are what the Russians say, but there is a pretty big danger if that facility gets compromised somehow.

Good sign a war is going sideways when you're still trying to come up for reasons for why you started it weeks after it began.

[Itse]

Another batch of jokes:

Radio Yerevan was asked, is it true that the economic sanctions have stopped all Russian exports? A: Not true at all, in fact in the last two weeks we have exported record numbers of equipment for the Ukrainian military!

Radio Yerevan was asked, is it true that fascists are taking over our beloved neighbour Ukraine? A: Sadly it is true, although the takeover has been taking longer than expected.

Radio Yerevan was asked, how long will the stock exchanges remain closed? A: It's difficult to say at this time, but the last time they were closed for 75 years.

"America is effed," thought Pavel Semyonovich, when he saw "out of dollars" sign at the currency exchange counter.

Jack Daniel's withdrew from Russia. That was the last drop.

France is withdrawing French kisses.

Apple Pay in 2022 means you pick apples in an orchard and sell them 5M rubles a bag.

If you are feeling useless, remember that some people in Russia have a degree in international relations.

[Just a little while ago people were angry that the politicians were stealing everything, and now everyone is saying "why the #### couldn't you just steal in peace?"

He Who Cannot Be Talked About started The Thing That Cannot Be Named, and now people are going to the banks to withdraw The Thing That Cannot Be Withdrawn.

[holden]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's true that the Americans have a pathogens storage and research facility in Kyiv. One of the biggest in the world.

I don't think their intentions are what the Russians say, but there is a pretty big danger if that facility gets compromised somehow.

Originally Posted by blankall

Apparently that's not true at all:

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/03/so...ction-program/

Good ole factcheck.org.

FlamesAddiction isn't the only CP fellow that seems to regurgitate garbage they find at garbage sources.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by combustiblefuel

No offense., your position is valuable for 8n cite buy
T I highly suspect yout
R info forming said views have been highly censored before they get to you.

whaaaaaa? Am i behind in American english?