Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[northcrunk]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

McDavid didn't wipe his butt.

I'll see myself out.

He would have pink eye if that was the case.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Our friend @ineffectiveMath lists the Oil with a 96% chance, the Flames at 88%
Barring an epic collapse, the Oil (and Flames) are in.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Ineffecti...70199942729738

The potential epic collapse is exactly what we're talking about.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

So the 2 point gap makes an 8% difference...? Correct me if I'm wrong as I'm not an expert, but that seems a little ridiculous to me.

Its probably about right.

Say you need 92 points to need the playoffs and no loser points and a 50% chance of winning each games. This allows you to use a simple binomial expansion. The probability of winning 8 or more games is 60%, The probability of 7 or more is 77%.

Now there are lots of other factors in SPS calc but 8% is very reasonable given the low number of games left.

[DiracSpike]

I didn't get that Oilers playoff ticket article either, it really doesn't seem like that much for a lower bowl playoff ticket. I paid 350 directly from the Flames to get a seat 5 rows up in the second bowl for game 4 against the Canucks two years ago. Also, since it's the first playoff game in a generation buddy could sell that seat for like, a grand, so I'm not sure how he deserved an entire article to bitch.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

That's one of the things I've learned as a season ticket holder, if things go well the playoffs will cost about as much as the regular season, so be prepared to shell out if need be.

Granted it's pretty easy to forget a piece of information you haven't used for a decade, but come on Edmonton, Google exists for a reason.

And if the number is unaffordable to you. Scalp one ticket a round and it pays for the other 2. I think the flames mark up was about the same though. Usually the first round cost the face value of the regular season price of the ticket.

[drewtastic]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

Funny part is this is coming from a guy who apparently has enough disposable income to pay ~$7300/seat for his season tickets.

To be fair to the guy, what else is there to spend money on in The Chuck?

And, I'm not convinced that he's using "disposable" income. For all we know, that guy could be living in the arena, sleeping on piles of previously fan-discarded jerseys, subsiding on scrap pieces of "Bobby Nic" burgers.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GGG

Its probably about right.

Say you need 92 points to need the playoffs and no loser points and a 50% chance of winning each games. This allows you to use a simple binomial expansion. The probability of winning 8 or more games is 60%, The probability of 7 or more is 77%.

Now there are lots of other factors in SPS calc but 8% is very reasonable given the low number of games left.

If the Flames and Oilers finish in a tie I believe the Flames would be ahead based on more ROW wins. I didn't read but I suppose 8% could be based on strength of remaining schedule. Have the Oilers used up all their 2nd nigh of back to back games advantage they have been benefitting from all season?

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Honestly any day This is Spinal Tap is referenced is a good day. Epic use too lol.

Thank you, Heavy Jack. Trying to be more loving and jovial here. Shouldn't say that after a cold sore discussion, but you get what I'm saying.

[dieHARDflameZ]

As per Sportsnet's article, apparently Oiler fans are outraged by the 44% ticket price jump from regular season to playoff tickets.

I mean when you miss the playoffs for ten straight years, I guess it makes sense to try and make up some revenue at the first opportunity you get. Edmonton is no good.

[Heavy Jack]

Wow.. 44% ticket hike to go watch #### on ice, eat a 20 dollar Bobby Nick burger and drink a 12 dollar beer. McDavid bro.. just run man.

[jg13]

Originally Posted by dieHARDflameZ

As per Sportsnet's article, apparently Oiler fans are outraged by the 44% ticket price jump from regular season to playoff tickets.

Not sure why they're complaining. They've had 10 years to save up.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

If the Flames and Oilers finish in a tie I believe the Flames would be ahead based on more ROW wins. I didn't read but I suppose 8% could be based on strength of remaining schedule. Have the Oilers used up all their 2nd nigh of back to back games advantage they have been benefitting from all season?

Someone said last weekend that apparently now the Flames have the edge the rest of the way with 3 games against tired teams vs 2 for the Oil.

Just wait for all the complaints coming other way, despite them having received 17 already this season.

Teams are no longer just lying down, they're dead tired from the Oilers too. The world is unfair!

[Draug]

Originally Posted by GGG

And if the number is unaffordable to you. Scalp one ticket a round and it pays for the other 2. I think the flames mark up was about the same though. Usually the first round cost the face value of the regular season price of the ticket.

I just looked up my invoice from 2014-15. My low whites went up 54% from the regular season to Round 1. $68 to $104.

Yikes!

[Mr.Coffee]

that actually sounds about right though... playoff tickets that sell to low will just be scalped at really high prices.

Why wouldn't the organization try and take some of that off the table for themselves?

[Heavy Jack]

Mentioned it in the OOT last night but it deserves to be read by a wider audience like the E=NG thread..

I think seeing Lucic down on the 3rd line is telling.. Lucic should just go back to what he's good at and throw barrels at Mario.



Carry on.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

He would have pink eye if that was the case.

Pink eye. Or Brown nose.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by jg13

Not sure why they're complaining. They've had 10 years to save up.

They've had to start drinking pretty heavily early in the season to get thru 82 games of Oilers hockey. Oiler-Aid is two things...addictive, and expensive.

I think Reggie Dunlop used to have a great sig with Kevin Lowes face on a pitcher of that stuff.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

If the Flames and Oilers finish in a tie I believe the Flames would be ahead based on more ROW wins. I didn't read but I suppose 8% could be based on strength of remaining schedule. Have the Oilers used up all their 2nd nigh of back to back games advantage they have been benefitting from all season?

The 8% is likely based on looser points. They need 15 points whereas we need 16. Im to lazy to try and factor that in when someone else has already done the leg work but it seems reasonable

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Someone said last weekend that apparently now the Flames have the edge the rest of the way with 3 games against tired teams vs 2 for the Oil.

Just wait for all the complaints coming other way, despite them having received 17 already this season.

Teams are no longer just lying down, they're dead tired from the Oilers too. The world is unfair!

Now the most recent excuse is that goaltenders are lying down for the Flames as Greiss was pulled in Calgary and stoned the Oilers. Greiss was the only reason the Flames didn't have seven goals in the first period of that game and it was more the Flames total domination that led to him getting pulled than anything else. It's not all Oilers fans that are this delusional but holy smokes some of them certainly are.

[CNeufeld]

Originally Posted by GGG

The 8% is likely based on looser points. They need 15 points whereas we need 16. Im to lazy to try and factor that in when someone else has already done the leg work but it seems reasonable

SportsClubStats has two methods available for calculating the playoff odds. One is weighted, and "includes opponents record and home field advantage". That method puts the Oilers at 99.3 and the Flames at 92.0.

The second method is strictly 50/50 (each team has an equal chance of winning). That puts the odds at 97.5 and 94.2.

So basically, the two points are work about 3%. The other 4 or 5% are due to schedule/opponents. From what I can tell...

C