Russia invades Ukraine

[CroFlames]

Tough to analyze how each side is doing. But the fact remains we have seen proof of destroyed and captured Russian vehicles, and not an insignificant amount.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Maybe, we're only seeing one side of things.

Maybe we're just eating up the Ukrainian propaganda, because it makes us feel better. Could it possibly be that while Russia may not be meeting expectations, they are doing much better than what is being portrayed?

I don't know, they haven't taken any major cities and they've barely made any progress in the last week or so despite taking relatively heavy losses (even the most conservative estimates would have their rate of casualties being their highest since in any campaign since WWII).

If their goal is to take several months to take over the eastern half of the country while trashing the cities and losing tens of thousands of soldiers, then I guess they're on track. But I'm having trouble believing that that was how they thought it would play out. Maybe they'll pick up some steam and advance faster, but so far it hasn't been happening.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I don't even want it. I much prefer to have western democratic Estonia near our borders than backwards Belarus. Who wants to live in a country surrounded by impoverished dictatorships.

Those countries would be easier to identify with at least.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by you&me

Maybe one day.

For now, sky-high inflation, worthless currency, crippling sanctions restricting imports and a generally impoverished populace don't make for an enticing market.

I agree that economic conditions will be rough for the foreseeable future, but there is a giant sucking sound right now happening in a country of 140M+ people, and eventually something will need to fill the void (and often some of the best companies have been created during recessions/depressions). I assume that Putin will be handing out the best of the claimed assets to those that support him, but I don't think they'll just go back to full on Soviet-style nationalization. I bet China is just licking its chops right now... it could be like the early 90s again, just the source of new capital will be coming from the East instead of West

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Maybe, we're only seeing one side of things.

Maybe we're just eating up the Ukrainian propaganda, because it makes us feel better. Could it possibly be that while Russia may not be meeting expectations, they are doing much better than what is being portrayed?

Putin expected to take Kiev in 2 days. That was proven by the leaked pre written state news that had a Feb 26 date.

Putin expected for all of Ukraine to be under their control already. This was also proven by a captured document plan.

Putin and a small handful of people were the only ones in Russia who even knew the invasion was being planned. Even some within his own circle had no idea.

They have only taken one city in Ukraine so far, and have been pushed back from Kharkiv a city furthest from supply lines from Ukraine and right on the Russian border.

No...if anything, the Ukrainian estimates have been conservative as they only include documented kills, not abandoned positions or things like tanks captured by farmers not on video.

And there are a few sites which provide documented Ukrainian losses. Just a couple of days ago Ukraine lost 2 Su-24s in the south after being overconfident after destroying a couple convoys. The mere fact that Ukraine is still flying jets 2 weeks in however shows a monumental failure of the Russia air force to get air superiority, let alone air supremacy.

By all accounts, this is one of most colossal military failures in history. Russia can still 'win' but it will be an extremely costly victory with no ability to occupy Ukraine.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I don't even want it. I much prefer to have western democratic Estonia near our borders than backwards Belarus. Who wants to live in a country surrounded by impoverished dictatorships.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1501970753276755968

https://twitter.com/user/status/1501971197621325830

[blankall]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Maybe, we're only seeing one side of things.

Maybe we're just eating up the Ukrainian propaganda, because it makes us feel better. Could it possibly be that while Russia may not be meeting expectations, they are doing much better than what is being portrayed?

We're definitely only seeing one side (at least I am, I'm not spending much time on RT media outlets). The 3rd party counts differ from the Ukrainians substantially, but the 3rd parties are also relying on confirmed kills/vehicle destruction.

My guess is that the truth is somewhere between what the Ukrainians are reporting and what the 3rd parties are reporting, with the Russian news being complete bunk.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Putin expected to take Kiev in 2 days. That was proven by the leaked pre written state news that had a Feb 26 date.

Putin expected for all of Ukraine to be under their control already. This was also proven by a captured document plan.

Putin and a small handful of people were the only ones in Russia who even knew the invasion was being planned. Even some within his own circle had no idea.

They have only taken one city in Ukraine so far, and have been pushed back from Kharkiv a city furthest from supply lines from Ukraine and right on the Russian border.

No...if anything, the Ukrainian estimates have been conservative as they only include documented kills, not abandoned positions or things like tanks captured by farmers not on video.

And there are a few sites which provide documented Ukrainian losses. Just a couple of days ago Ukraine lost 2 Su-24s in the south after being overconfident after destroying a couple convoys. The mere fact that Ukraine is still flying jets 2 weeks in however shows a monumental failure of the Russia air force to get air superiority, let alone air supremacy.

By all accounts, this is one of most colossal military failures in history. Russia can still 'win' but it will be an extremely costly victory with no ability to occupy Ukraine.

I'll be the first one to say I under estimated Russian capabilities. I mean we know that there's always been a training issues with Russian Conscripts, and by the time they're pretty much halfway competant they're on their way out of the army.

But in terms of the technical side, and especially in the air the Russian Military's technology edge should have made a huge difference. But it doesn't seem to have.

From a perspective of the Ukrainian resistance to the attack, yes it does represent a massive failure on the part of the Russian military combined with the Ukraines being highly motivated. However the coloration of forces still vastly favors the Russians. They have more of everything, troops tanks planes, artillery and everything. The longer this goes on the more worn out the Ukraines are going to get and they don't likely have reserves so they can rest men and maintain equipment.

With the Western powers not getting involved beyond shipping in munitions, eventually this war will tip in the Russian's favor. Its just math. Russia can win a high tech war of attrition as long as Putin and the Russian military are willing to trade those casualties and blood for time.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Maybe, we're only seeing one side of things.

Maybe we're just eating up the Ukrainian propaganda, because it makes us feel better. Could it possibly be that while Russia may not be meeting expectations, they are doing much better than what is being portrayed?

One glance at the convoy looking like it's stuck in pre-pan Crowchild Trail and Bow and you know that isn't propped.

Maybe the # of dead soldiers, but how can you lie about about a 60km stretch of bumper bumper rush hour traffic?

[Firebot]

Russia simply doesn't have the logistics to effectively wage war the longer this goes.

The reason why you see Russian jets fall out of the sky at unrecoverable rates (they lost 4 in the past 24 hours) is because they are out of guided missiles and using dumb bombs, forcing them to fly closer to targets.

The majority of the recent damage is not being done by planes, but by artillery. Kyiv has been markedly quiet in recent days simply because Russia has lost the ability to inflict significant damage without heavy losses on their side as well.

And...even should Kharkiv and Kyiv fall, Russia has no means to occupy Ukraine. It has 100% of its invasion force in Ukraine right now. The decisive win just isn't happening, especially before Russia goes bankrupt. Time is not on Russia's side.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

this is wrong.

He'll be fine once he gets out of Russia. There are always countries that will accept him and his billions.
Look at history. There is always a home for evil.

I'm more worried about what destruction he'll accomplish before he's gone.

I dont think Putin has anywhere to go unfortunatly, which makes his fall way more dangerous, most of the examples of dictators running like Amin rely on ethnic or religious allies with more power and the dictator wasn't overthrown so much as negotiated/ran away, Putins fall, if it comes will be from grey men in the military, my guess is if Putin starts cracking down/punishing generals because of the poor performance of the war and miscalculates his power then it will be a replay of Beria's death, the military will overthrow the KGB and Putin dies in the basement with the traditional bullet to the back of the head.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I'm still baffled how Russia hasn't even flexed their collective muscle yet. I refuse to believe until I see that their entire armed forces have become rusted out lawn ornaments.

They haven't even flexed their naval presence properly.
And I still cannot believe they've used the best parts of their airforce.

I mean that is unless they completely missed the boat on how the rest of the world has gone away from old arsenal deployment strategies over the decades. But I can't see that! Like they've been in recent combat theaters as much as anyone! So how have they so completely missed the mark here? I don't get it. Even a simpleton like me is scratching my head at how the world's 2nd strongest military is just getting destroyed by the simplest deployment of mid range drones.

I'm still think that they're playing possum. Just don't understand why.

Yeah, I'll admit I've had this thought too. Especially given it seems a large part of the invading force is conscripts caught off guard with the assignment, and seemingly outdated, poorly maintained machinery. The paranoid part of me almost thinks this seems too easy, and Putin is trying to goad NATO into a sense of overconfidence and a direct war with them before Russia unleashes the real deal of new weaponry and hardened veterans it was saving for that.

I'm not saying at all I actually think this is the case, I'm just saying I've had that uneasy thought at times. It's just so bewildering how poorly they seem to be performing for the world's #2 military.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

I think this is a pretty bad take. The Russians have lost in 2 weeks 5000 men, and in all the time they were in Afghanistan they lost 15000 after a decade.

If this is domination I'd hate to see what being ####ty would be.

I don’t see it as domination either but to be fair Ukraine is a fairly modern army, Afghanistan was not. Higher losses are to be expected, the question is whether they are suffering more losses than is reasonable. So far it seems like they may be.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I dont think Putin has anywhere to go unfortunatly, which makes his fall way more dangerous, most of the examples of dictators running like Amin rely on ethnic or religious allies with more power and the dictator wasn't overthrown so much as negotiated/ran away, Putins fall, if it comes will be from grey men in the military, my guess is if Putin starts cracking down/punishing generals because of the poor performance of the war and miscalculates his power then it will be a replay of Beria's death, the military will overthrow the KGB and Putin dies in the basement with the traditional bullet to the back of the head.

Lets hope history repeats itself, Beria's henchmen were also executed immediately as well. In this nuclear world the need to purge all of Putin's people is a must.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I don’t see it as domination either but to be fair Ukraine is a fairly modern army, Afghanistan was not. Higher losses are to be expected, the question is whether they are suffering more losses than is reasonable. So far it seems like they may be.

I would bet less than 10% of the family's of the killed know of their demise, sooner or later the Russian people will know the truth and Putin will be in trouble.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Lets hope history repeats itself, Beria's henchmen were also executed immediately as well. In this nuclear world the need to purge all of Putin's people is a must.

I don't agree with this.

While I do agree Putin deserves to die a slow and painful death, I'd rather the precedent be that dictators who give up get a gilded cage not a public flogging. It makes the next person in that situation more likely to give up than push the big red button and blow the world to hell.

[CaptainCrunch]

The utterly terrifying scenario, and I don't believe at this point that Putin will be removed from power violently.


But if he is, its likely that its done by a Military Coup, at the same time we're going to see the rise of a lot of civil unrest as the sanctions crush the Russian people. Its more then likely that we'll see hardliners that take over, and will crack down to restore order, and with the economy in shambles, Russia will literally become a rogue country with over 5000 war heads at their disposal.


I very much doubt that the overthrow will lead to democratic elections and McDonald's opening on every corner.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by blankall

We're definitely only seeing one side (at least I am, I'm not spending much time on RT media outlets). The 3rd party counts differ from the Ukrainians substantially, but the 3rd parties are also relying on confirmed kills/vehicle destruction.

My guess is that the truth is somewhere between what the Ukrainians are reporting and what the 3rd parties are reporting, with the Russian news being complete bunk.

Internet photo-confirmed count is 1020 Russian, 284 Ukrainian armour, vehicles, artillery, aviation destroyed, abandoned or captured. For sure the Ukrainian numbers would be low because no one other than Russia is eager to share those photos but the Russian number is probably closer to the truth since everyone wants to share them.

The most curious aspect of these counts are the relatively low aviation losses noted. We are led to believe these would be much higher yet it would hard to wreckage so who knows.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html

[burn_this_city]

Supply truck losses.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1502024127770673152