What are the chances the outcome is determined on election night? Like none?
Interestingly, Bloomberg is supposedly investing his $100 million in promoting Democratic early-voting in Florida, in part because it begins tabulating early votes before the polls close, and announces them on election night. It could lead to a strong election-night lead for Biden that would likely make any delayed counts in other states irrelevant.
Florida being Florida, I wouldn't hold my breath that it plays out that way, but it's an interesting strategy.
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If the election drags out, and it will, I'd put a risky bet on carnage the likes of a civil war. I mean, that's where that country is headed anyway.
Pretty extreme take, but a little part of me wonders...
No, not right away. The US is headed down that path (not necessarily civil war, but violent uprisings and clashes), but the left would be the ones reacting violently to the GOP attempting to stay in power after being voted out, and I don't see that right now.
They're still mostly in the "posting powerful messages on social media" and "owning the right in memes" stage of life for now, but I suspect that will change as the years go by.
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No, not right away. The US is headed down that path (not necessarily civil war, but violent uprisings and clashes), but the left would be the ones reacting violently to the GOP attempting to stay in power after being voted out, and I don't see that right now.
They're still mostly in the "posting powerful messages on social media" and "owning the right in memes" stage of life for now, but I suspect that will change as the years go by.
The most powerful messages are coming from the Lincoln Project, and they're made up of conservatives! LOL.
Yeah, there will definitely be some nasty clashes.
So the state of Nevada has a 50 person indoor gathering rule from Governor Steve Sisolak 'D' but Trump holds an indoor rally in Henderson against the city's wishes.
Amazing to think but he's already acting like a king
So the state of Nevada has a 50 person indoor gathering rule from Governor Steve Sisolak 'D' but Trump holds an indoor rally in Henderson against the city's wishes.
Amazing to think but he's already acting like a king
It’ll be interesting to see the photos with the lack of social distancing as people cram into small spaces to make the crowds seem larger.
The most powerful messages are coming from the Lincoln Project, and they're made up of conservatives! LOL.
Yeah, there will definitely be some nasty clashes.
Yes, but they're disingenuous. They make for great videos for the left to share, but they're anticipating a shift back to normally (for GOP standards). They are not anti-right, anything the right has been shifting towards, they are just hedging against a sinking ship (Trump) so they can collect all the rats later on.
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If Trump had actually taken Covid seriously back in February, he'd probably get reelected easily. But because of his rampant ignorance, narcissism, and stupidity, his administration's disastrous response might just end up being the one thing that finally sinks him.
Trump was no doubt hoping that the virus would just go away before the election and the economy would come roaring back, but their situation down there is only gonna get worse over the next month or so. Since he can't run on a strong economy anymore, he's now resorting to fear tactics, divisive rhetoric, and sabotaging the election process. Pouring gasoline on the fire is the only play he has left at this point.
Yes, but they're disingenuous. They make for great videos for the left to share, but they're anticipating a shift back to normally (for GOP standards). They are not anti-right, anything the right has been shifting towards, they are just hedging against a sinking ship (Trump) so they can collect all the rats later on.
Let's get real here for a second. The Lincoln Project are indeed Republicans, but they are centrist Republicans who are not the bat #### crazy variety that are supporting Trump. There are a lot of thoughtful conservatives who have been abandoned by their party. This is a way for them to rest control of their party again and get back to some level of civility in politics and following of long established norms, like those set out in the constitution. Yes, they will remain Republicans, but the difference between the Lincoln Project Republicans and Democrats is not that much. They are battling for not just the existence of democracy in the United States, but the existence of their party. They can do both and do a service to the country.
Trump may be the one thing that makes the political mechanism take an inward look at itself and see the damage that hyper-partisan politics that Newt Gingrich and Mitch McConnell have fomented as the very bad thing that it is. Cooperation to stop Trump may finally end gridlock in congress when the dust settles.
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Interestingly, Bloomberg is supposedly investing his $100 million in promoting Democratic early-voting in Florida, in part because it begins tabulating early votes before the polls close, and announces them on election night. It could lead to a strong election-night lead for Biden that would likely make any delayed counts in other states irrelevant.
Florida being Florida, I wouldn't hold my breath that it plays out that way, but it's an interesting strategy.
I heard the statistic that over the last four or five Presidential elections, 45 million total votes have been cast in Florida, and the difference between total Republican votes and total Democratic votes is about 88 thousand, or 0.2%.
No matter what, Florida will be close.
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So the state of Nevada has a 50 person indoor gathering rule from Governor Steve Sisolak 'D' but Trump holds an indoor rally in Henderson against the city's wishes.
Amazing to think but he's already acting like a king
It's a great illustration of the point I was making earlier. What's the governor going to do about it?
The law itself has no power. The power of a law only comes from either willing compliance through fear or someone having the will and capacity to actually enforce the law with some form of violence (financial, physical, reputational etc.). Additionally, the interpretation of law and decisions made can be heavily influenced by having access to good lawyers who don't even need to prove the correctness of their own side to gain a legal victory as they can get the practical victory for their client just by obfuscating the truth or by delaying and avoiding judgment until it doesn't matter anymore. The legal process can be used to abuse the law, and adherence to legal process is a significant constraint in fighting against a powerful person who has no respect for legal processes.
Trump has spent his whole life taking advantage of this by cheating people who he knew couldn't do anything back to him and intimidating those he cheats into not even responding. He understands these vulnerabilities in the law well and has repeatedly proven it to be the case. And now, he has not just money to throw around to avoid and abuse the law. Now he has the power of the presidency, the attorney general, much of congress, judges, senators, congressmen, business leaders and more. He also has his social media platform, Fox News, OAN, other media sources and maybe 100+ million loyal followers who believe in him 100%. For a large portion of the population, he has the power to shape the truth and reality through his words alone.
Who wields the power to stop him when he shows no respect for law? Military leaders could, if they have the conviction necessary to step in and force a president out of office. That will take some huge cajones when the real results of the election are obscured and they would face 100+ million Americans that would view it as a military coup of a legitimate president. Maybe someone else also has the power. Who? Whoever it is, will they have the will and resolve to act?
I'm not saying that Trump will for sure succeed, but I do think he is testing the system in fundamental ways and his chances of success are high enough to be worried about. History is full of events like these, and in a system that hasn't yet had any good answers to his abuses, the election is just the last legal process he needs to corrupt in order to have torn it all down.
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