2016 NHL Draft

[Poe969]

Thing is, Granlund is a 5'10 185 lbs finess player. I can see why he was hyped up but I don't think he's close to being the kind of player that Puljujarvi is in both talent and size. Puljujarvi is on a different level and I'd consider him to be a top 3-4 pick in the past few drafts.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by TheOnlyBilko

Makes no sense for a GM who could be fighting to keep his job in a couple years, yes I agree, but looking for the best of the Franchise long term? it could very well make sense. Same thing could have been said in 2004 with the Penguins. Why draft Malkin when he is stuck with Metallurg Magnitogorsk for at least 2 more years when we could draft Cam Barker or Andrew Ladd and get them now (and get much needed help they needed badly) and start developing them in our system? Giving up those 2 years well worth it for the Franchise long term.

Yah, but for that to make sense, Pul-hard-to-spell would have to be projected to be Evgeni Malkin, which I don't get the sense at all. Ovechkin and Malkin were hyped to be the best Russian players in a generation. I don't think Pul-too-lazy-to-check-proper-spelling has the same hype around him.

[Bingo]

The last few pages of this discussion make it evident why Monty Hall did so well in the 70s!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

nm

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by TheOnlyBilko

We as Flames fans also highly overrate Sam Bennett. Don't get me wrong I love him and think he becomes a 60 point player and I can be a homer just as much as anyone but I am also a realist.

Sounds like you're underrating him actually, perhaps substantially. Bennett was the #1 ranked prospect by CSS and Redline in his draft year and its not like his draft year was horrible. He has a lot more than 60 point upside. His upside is as high as Monahan's or higher.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Remember just 2 or 3 years ago when Granlund was the top rated prospect on the planet? There are no guarantees.

No because this never happened. 9th overall pick and there were always huge question marks whether his game would transition well. Mediocre start had many calling him a bust in the first two years. Offensive numbers in NA have never stood out.

Anyone declaring him as some super prospect was not following. Or they were reading too much Finnish media, which got overexcited for no good reason over this guy.

[SuperMatt18]

Looking into it a little more I do question just how impressive Puljujarvi has truly been in his draft year in the SM-Liiga, especially when comparing them to recent draft picks from Finland.

Granlund: 0.93 PPG
Barkov: 0.91 PPG
Laine: 0.71 PPG
Armia: 0.60 PPG
Puljujarvi: 0.56 PPG
Rantanen: 0.50 PPG
Teravainen: 0.45 PPG

Feels to me like he is more in that second tier of players out of Finland, than the first tier with guys like Barkov. Although a guy like Rantanen did have a dominant performance in the AHL this season so who knows.

Still feels like outside of the amazing WJC performance that his season in the SM-Liiga would have him pegged more in the 5-10 range like a guy like Rantanen than a sure fire top 3 pick like Barkov (who even then was expected to be taken at 4 in his draft).

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Remember just 2 or 3 years ago when Granlund was the top rated prospect on the planet? There are no guarantees.

Being a top ranked player outside the NHL isn't really that much of an accomplishment because the best of the best young players just go straight into the NHL.

Puljujarvi is on a completely different level than a Granlund. Puljujarvi is huge, strong, fast, skilled. Granlund is below average height, below average strength, not blazing fast and but highly skilled. Not even close to comparable.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Five-hole

Bennett for #3OA makes zero sense for the BJs. It doesn't help them much on the ice (if at all) and it hurts them as a business decision.

Disagree. Bennett is further along in development and would give them the #1 centre they lost when they traded Johansen. Bennett for Puljujarvi would make a ton of sense for them.

But the Flames aren't trading Bennett so silly discussion anyways.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Poe969

I do think 6 OA + the stars first, 2 seconds would get it done or at least something along those lines. If they're even considering moving the pick, you have to do see if you can get it. Puljujarvi would really help this team so if he's available, you try your best to get him.

They wouldn't want just picks. It makes no sense for them for sacrifice high end talent and quality for quantity.

To even get them to listen you have to start throwing in top prospects or young NHLers. Otherwise they just hang up.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The kid actually had similar hype to Puljujarvi and put up a higher PPG in his draft year in the SM-Liiga than both Laine & Puljujarvi. Also had a dominant U-18 and WJC in his draft year.

People figured he was a lock to be an offensive star in the NHL and it never really panned out.

He was never as hyped as Puljujarvi is now. Granlund went 8th overall and wasn't in his drafts top tier. Puljujarvi is in an elite top tier of a strong top end. They just aren't comparable at all in terms of upside. And that's not hype talking. Puljujarvi has everything you want in a prospect, size, strength, game breaking speed, elite skill. Granlund always had questions on his size and his mediocre skating. Only his skill was elite. He was far from a complete package like Puljujarvi, Laine and Matthews are.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He was never as hyped as Puljujarvi is now. Granlund went 8th overall and wasn't in his drafts top tier. Puljujarvi is in an elite top tier of a strong top end. They just aren't comparable at all in terms of upside. And that's not hype talking. Puljujarvi has everything you want in a prospect, size, strength, game breaking speed, elite skill. Granlund always had questions on his size and his mediocre skating. Only his skill was elite. He was far from a complete package like Puljujarvi, Laine and Matthews are.

He wasn't as hyped in his draft year but he certainly was in the draft + 1/2 seasons.

That is when there were thoughts of him being the top prospect not in the NHL, and as a guy who would have been a top 5 pick if the draft had been re-done a year or 2 later, especially after a pretty good World Championship performance for a gold medal winning Finland team

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He wasn't as hyped in his draft year but he certainly was in the draft + 1/2 seasons.

That is when there were thoughts of him being the top prospect not in the NHL, and as a guy who would have been a top 5 pick if the draft had been re-done a year or 2 later, especially after a pretty good World Championship performance for a gold medal winning Finland team

Yep. And that's the type of hype you have to be wary about. Hype from Finland from fans desperate to have the next great Finnish star, hype from their media, hype from a fan base desperate for an elite prospect. You have to think for yourself if its warranted. With his size, strength and skating concerns the post-draft hype around Granlund was always questionable. I don't care if THN thinks he's the best prospect outside the NHL, the more elite a player is the sooner they jump into the NHL typically. If he was an elite as the hype suggested he would've stepped in faster and made a bigger impact.

If the hype is coming from NHL scouts in a player's draft year then it's far less questionable. Puljujarvi's upside is massive. Far higher than Granlund's upside has ever been. Puljujarvi has all the tools and all the skills to be an elite NHLer. Granlund's size, softness, lack of strength and lack of elite speed was always going to limit his upside.

[Henry Fool]

I remember that McKenzie called Granlund the second best young player in Europe after Kuznetsov. There was plenty of hype but like others have said, there's a reason he was the 9th overall pick despite the fact that he outscored guys like Laine and Puljujärvi.

He had to change a lot of his game to suit the NHL. His skating was poor, his shot wasn't dangerous enough. He stayed in Europe for one year too long. He should have got the cultural shock out of the way sooner, because nothing in Finland could have prepared him for it no matter how long he waited.

Seems to me that Mike Yeo pretty much told him that he'd need to be able to skate through a wall to play in the league and eventually he did develop some toughness, but having watched Gaudreau under Hartley I have to question the approach they took. Of course Granlund never had Gaudreau's speed and elusiveness and that makes a huge difference, but I feel that Granlund was never taught to pick his spots. He was always on his ass when he started in the NHL.

I mean he looks pretty good when you watch him but his numbers haven't been near to where they should be.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Brian Costello @bcostellothn
THN's Draft Preview top 10:
1-Matthews
2-Laine
3-Puljujarvi
4-Tkachuk
5-Dubois
6-Juolevi
7-Nylander
8-Sergachev
9-Chychrun
10-McLeod

See I think this could be pretty similar to the Flames top 8 with a couple tweaks. I think Nylander drops a touch due to playing that softer, finesse style and not having ideal size. Flames know the value of top 3 defenders so it makes sense that the defenders could be a touch higher than Nylander on their list. Wouldn't surprise me if the Flames top 8 was

1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi
4. Tkachuk
5. Dubois
6. Juolevi
7. Sergachev
8. Chychrun

The big question is how to rank the d-men IMO.

[TheOnlyBilko]

Originally Posted by automaton 3

What sells tickets is winning games, not hyping draft picks (except in Edmonton).

are you kidding me?!?! HYPE SELLS!! Everyone is (or has been) a "sucker" for hype!! Hype(from a top draft pick)sells tickets, you better believe it!!! Just ask all the people who bought tickets to see the hype of the following draft picks like, Sidney Crosby (his hype basically saved the franchise in Pittsburgh), LeBron James (attendance soared by almost 7000 fans per home game in LeBron rookie season, 7000!!!), Stephen Strasburg (attendance SOARED in his rookie season. Almost 20 000 more fans in attendance on games Strasburg pitch as a rookie!! 20 freaking thousand!!!), Larry Bird & Mark Fidrych. In Mark Fidrychs last 8 games in his rookie season (he was a pitcher), Fidrych drew 334,123 folks out to the ballpark, an average of 41,765 per game - more than double the overall attendance average of 18,224 at Tiger Stadium that year!!!! These are just a few examples I thought of, off the top of my head were draft picks/hype sold tickets, there are many, many more!

Don't kid yourself and think that hype of a top draft pick doesn't sell tickets.

[Henry Fool]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Yep. And that's the type of hype you have to be wary about. Hype from Finland from fans desperate to have the next great Finnish star, hype from their media, hype from a fan base desperate for an elite prospect. You have to think for yourself if its warranted. With his size, strength and skating concerns the post-draft hype around Granlund was always questionable. I don't care if THN thinks he's the best prospect outside the NHL, the more elite a player is the sooner they jump into the NHL typically. If he was an elite as the hype suggested he would've stepped in faster and made a bigger impact.

If the hype is coming from NHL scouts in a player's draft year then it's far less questionable. Puljujarvi's upside is massive. Far higher than Granlund's upside has ever been. Puljujarvi has all the tools and all the skills to be an elite NHLer. Granlund's size, softness, lack of strength and lack of elite speed was always going to limit his upside.

People should realise that basic stat comparisons are not news to scouts. You can ask, why is the player still ranked so high - given that scouts are not complete idiots and have actually looked at a player's stats - and then you can maybe get into something more substantial.

Filip Forsberg had 17 points in the second tier Swedish league in his draft year, yet scouts really liked him. He was thought to go even higher than he eventually did.

You have to differentiate between hype within Finland which is simply the result of a player being popular in their home country and hype about a player's NHL future. Some youngsters are star players at home and that's just fine and natural. People are more guarded about projecting their futures in the NHL than you'd think - and I mean in general, not on Hfboards.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

See I think this could be pretty similar to the Flames top 8 with a couple tweaks. I think Nylander drops a touch due to playing that softer, finesse style and not having ideal size. Flames know the value of top 3 defenders so it makes sense that the defenders could be a touch higher than Nylander on their list. Wouldn't surprise me if the Flames top 8 was

1. Matthews
2. Laine
3. Puljujarvi
4. Tkachuk
5. Dubois
6. Juolevi
7. Sergachev
8. Chychrun

The big question is how to rank the d-men IMO.

I feel like the Flames would have Chychrun at 6 above the other two d-men - and mostly because from most accounts all 3 are pretty equal but our prospect pool could use a guy like Chychrun.

A bigger more physical d-man, that is also mobile, is a hole in the prospect base so all things being equal I could see Chychrun being ranked higher.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheOnlyBilko

I know nothing is wrong with this and I'm reading a few pages back about people talking about trading Bennett for Jesse Puljujärvi. I'm basically saying we have a pretty good idea of Bennetts ceiling, which is great, but Jesse Puljujärvi's ceiling could be much greater and is still a "wildcard". The position that Columbus is in, is that they would much rather "risk" keeping Jesse Puljujärvi for what he could become then trade him for Bennett.

This is the definition of the shiny new toy syndrome.

Puljujarvi could be anything...!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I feel like the Flames would have Chychrun at 6 above the other two d-men - and mostly because from most accounts all 3 are pretty equal but our prospect pool could use a guy like Chychrun.

A bigger more physical d-man, that is also mobile, is a hole in the prospect base so all things being equal I could see Chychrun being ranked higher.

I could definitely see that being the case. However Chychrun showed some questionable decision making to me at the U18s and I think hockey sense is important to the Flames. Juolevi oozes hockey sense, always make the calm, composed play. But Juolevi lacks the big point shot that Chychrun and Sergachev have shown and isn't a physical defender. Sergachev as well has a high level of calm and poise to his game. He has a lot of the same physical tools as Chychrun. Chychrun maybe have the best physical tools but tries to do too much at times and ends up turning it over in bad spots or fails to make the simple, correct play. Is it something he can overcome? Or is it something that limits his upside?

It's really hard to rank these dmen. They have all have different strengths and weaknesses and I think any attempt to rank how the Flames will have remains merely a guess. I think you can make a strong argument for any of Juolevi, Chychrun or Sergachev to be their top ranked defender.

In the end I tend to think Chychrun may be that guy in their top 6 because some scouts still see him as the highest potential guy.