Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

People who look at the oil industry as grossly profitable and take it for granted need to have a long hard look at what's been happening in the last few years. BP, Conoco, Apache, Marathon, Total, StatOil, Devon, and now Shell have all basically ceased operations in Western Canada. Soon it will only be CNR, Suncor, and the greatly weakened Cenovus and EnCana left to operate here, that's bad for the Province and city as a whole. Although as someone who owns a #### tonne of CNR stock I'm not complaining.

Oilsands related - I would generally agree with this statement. But conventional oil is still dominated by juniors and mid sized companies. Or at least there are a ton of them out there and they seem to be doing the majority of the work in this sector.

Back to the Shell/CNRL sale, I see CNRL now owns a majority (70%) stake in the Scotford Upgrader althoguht Shell says they will bump their share back up to 50%. Not sure if by 'upgrader' they mean the entire Scotford Complex or just the upgrader component but either way CNRL gains a pretty big share of that particular asset. And they also own a 50% stake in the Northwest Upgrader literally across the river from Shell. Guess it makes sense as they are now pretty heavy into the oilsands but partial ownership in two separate upgraders seems to be a little on the inefficient side. Wonder if there may be some fallout on the Northwest side as a result of this.

[Peanut]

The article I read in the Daily Oil Bulletin was pretty clear that the deal didn't involve the Scotford Refinery. Only the Upgrader.

Further to the list of companies who are moving out - ConocoPhillips is looking to get out of Alberta as well, I thought. Interesting times.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Peanut

The article I read in the Daily Oil Bulletin was pretty clear that the deal didn't involve the Scotford Refinery. Only the Upgrader.

Further to the list of companies who are moving out - ConocoPhillips is looking to get out of Alberta as well, I thought. Interesting times.

Thx. Makes sense as I don't think Shell wants to get out of the refining and marketing game in Canada.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

The write down was pretty much just a mandatory accounting exercise due to the strip price of oil. You should know that. It hardly has anything to do with Exxon's perception of Kearl's viability. If the price of oil rises they will just write it back up.

This has more to do with high cost oil than specifically the Oil Sands. Right in line with Shell selling off all their arctic stuff. They see the future in gas and not oil.


It's probably more of a bad thing because it just further solidifies Shell's belief that the future is gas and not oil. Given how heavily favored we are towards the oil sands now, that would be bad. At least we still have a bunch of gas though.


I think that's a short term view. Shell's thinking 50 years out here, not timing 10-year cycles right. They're betting the future is gas. I'm inclined to believe them.


edit: So ya, I pretty much just said the same thing three times. Poorly structured post...

Yeah, I'm well aware that it was an accounting exercise, but thanks for the condescension. The thing is that write-down is based on the profitability of the reserves, and frankly I doubt any company is eager to drop 14% of their value and that kind of magnitude. And yeah, they can just write it up again when prices rise, but even so its not exactly good news. I don't think the end is near for oilsands projects, but when super majors are taking these actions its not completely irrelevant either.

[Frequitude]

Sorry, wasn't trying to be condescending. Literally meant that I know you know that.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Peanut

The article I read in the Daily Oil Bulletin was pretty clear that the deal didn't involve the Scotford Refinery. Only the Upgrader.

Further to the list of companies who are moving out - ConocoPhillips is looking to get out of Alberta as well, I thought. Interesting times.

The Scotford Refinery is their Upgrader. Pretty sure they're keeping that.

[bizkitgto]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

The Scotford Refinery is their Upgrader. Pretty sure they're keeping that.

Both the Upgrader and Refinery are connected. I assume the refinery will go soon.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by bizkitgto

Both the Upgrader and Refinery are connected. I assume the refinery will go soon.

Right. Pretty much one big facility. I'd assume they'd keep it to be honest. I churns out too much cash.

[Frequitude]

Sounds like Peanut was right 70% of the upgrader portion was bought but will still be operated by Shell. 0% of the refinery portion and the chemicals plant are part of the sale.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Bit of an update.

Just met the NSolv team at SAIT. Their process doestrogen laminate the need for steam. They saw a 95%+ recovery factor of the solvent on a material balance basis. Also the pilot used a single horizontal well pair so I don't think flood front control will be as much of a factor if they can get their well density right. All around looks like it could be a great step forward!

[GGG]

The issue with NSolv is that you need to pipeline it to the facility for it to be economical on a commercial scale. This makes it a high barrier for entry to the market.

[Violator]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

People who look at the oil industry as grossly profitable and take it for granted need to have a long hard look at what's been happening in the last few years. BP, Conoco, Apache, Marathon, Total, StatOil, Devon, and now Shell have all basically ceased operations in Western Canada. Soon it will only be CNR, Suncor, and the greatly weakened Cenovus and EnCana left to operate here, that's bad for the Province and city as a whole. Although as someone who owns a #### tonne of CNR stock I'm not complaining.

Must be tripple meat day for you cnrl is up nearly ten percent.

[Mr.Coffee]

I'm seeing a lot of panic based on a large oil sands transaction and to be honest, it's pretty weird.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I'm seeing a lot of panic based on a large oil sands transaction and to be honest, it's pretty weird.

The 3 dollar drop in two days doesn't help probably

[Mr.Coffee]

Everything I have been reading suggests it'll be fine. Futures, demand / supply, speculation... nothing I've seen suggests yet this will turn into another long sustained drop in price, unless anyone else have opinions on the matter or have seen things?

[Ozy_Flame]

http://www.independent.co.uk/environ...-a7622211.html

Oil giant Shell warns public faith in fossil fuel industry is 'disappearing' and calls for carbon taxes

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is to increase its spending on renewable energy to $1bn (£800m) a year, its chief executive announced as he warned the public’s faith in the industry was “just disappearing”.

Ben van Beurden suggested the public backlash against fossil fuel firms could threaten the industry’s future.

He also said it was essential that countries imposed a price on carbon emissions to help phase out the use of coal and oil, sources of large amounts of greenhouse gases that are driving climate change.

That's pretty nutty.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

http://www.independent.co.uk/environ...-a7622211.html

Oil giant Shell warns public faith in fossil fuel industry is 'disappearing' and calls for carbon taxes

Oil giant Royal Dutch Shell is to increase its spending on renewable energy to $1bn (£800m) a year, its chief executive announced as he warned the public’s faith in the industry was “just disappearing”.

Ben van Beurden suggested the public backlash against fossil fuel firms could threaten the industry’s future.

He also said it was essential that countries imposed a price on carbon emissions to help phase out the use of coal and oil, sources of large amounts of greenhouse gases that are driving climate change.

That's pretty nutty.

It's really not. There's zero support or sympathy for Oil producing regions outside of those regions.

[Ozy_Flame]

The lack of public faith isn't nutty. The call for a carbon tax from a major global oil powerhouse is, or at least it seems to be.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

The lack of public faith isn't nutty. The call for a carbon tax from a major global oil powerhouse is, or at least it seems to be.

They'll just pass it on to the consumer.

This way they get to look green while you still need to buy their oil. Any extra costs placed on them will be handed down to us.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

It's a guessing game for everyone right now.

Exxon CEO doesn't subscribe to the peak demand any time soon and BP thinks around 2040...Linky

IEA sees a supply not meeting demand by 2020 if we don't start investing soon...Linky

At the same time, the IEA numbers (Feb. 10th) suggest this is already happening....Linky

The next IEA report is out next week (March 15). I'll be curious about that.