Elliot Friedman believes Treliving may not be back next season

[mikeecho]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

There is something to be said for looking for your goalies on bad teams - the guy who can put up half-decent numbers behind a tire fire will probably be ok aywhere (see Dubnyk, Greiss, Luongo, Chad even, etc.). When you get your goalie from a "defensive" team, it's more of a gamble, as you don't know how they will react to a tougher work - Talbot seems to be OK, Elliott not so much. Maybe Reimer was the guy to get.

Granted this was early in the season but Steinberg had some thoughts on inflated performance stats playing for St. Louis. I'd be interesting to see how this looks now.

http://nhlnumbers.com/2016/10/23/don...-brian-elliott

[madmike]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Literally not a person in the planet thought going with Elliott was rolling the dice. What a strange take

Yeah when I said "rolling the dice" I meant gambling that Elliott would put up numbers similar to his St. Louis numbers last year with the Flames. At worst, I think people could have expected a moderate save percentage decrease to .915 or so.

I don't think anyone could have predicted Elliott would look as awful as he has so far. I keep expecting him to get his game together, but at this point it's clear that won't happen. He lets in far too many soft goals and does so on a consistent basis, even when he's winning games.

The recent Arizona game, which was an easy Flames win, is pretty emblematic of his play. Both goals were directly Elliott's fault. He gave up the first goal by misplaying the puck directly to an Arizona player. And the second goal, from a bad angle along the boards, went right through him. It was still an easy Flames win, but Elliott's play was garbage.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Literally not a person in the planet thought going with Elliott was rolling the dice. What a strange take

Elliott wasn't rolling the dice mostly because his good SV% numbers came with a reasonable contract that had only 1 year remaining. Picking up Elliott for the 35th pick OA was never going to be a sink or swim moment for the franchise.

[joejoe3]

Burke for GM

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Here's how the numbers look...

For the returning core players (Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Giordano, Brodie, & Hamilton): Last year they scored 114 goals. This season they're on pace for 85. 29 goals less.

For the returning non-core players (Backlund, Frolik, Ferland, Stajan, Bouma, & Wideman): Last year they scored 50 goals. This year they're on pace for 69. 19 goals more.

Finally, the guys that were moved out (Colborne, Hudler, Jones, & Jooris) scored 42 goals last year. The new guys brought in this season (Tkachuk, Versteeg, Brouwer, & Chiasson) are on pace for 57 goals, 15 more.

My analysis: Treliving does the job of upgrading the roster player-wise (particularly if you take into account goaltending which, while it hasn't been lights-out this season, it's clearly better than last year's clusterfata), but Gulutzen gets less out of it, particularly at the top end.

What does this mean for judging Treliving's success and whether he should be brought back... I think he's done the nuts & bolts of GMing well; he's signed more good contracts than bad and upgraded the roster and the franchise's depth overall. However, he's also hamstrung the team the last two years: Once by failing to address the obvious goaltending problem the entire season, and once by whiffing on his head coach pick.

So, if you're an owner and you're looking at a guy who made some decent moves, but has failed to maintain the trajectory of on-ice success that it appeared to be on through self-inflicted wounds, do you buck up and give him the long-term extension I expect he's looking for, or do you make a move?

I'm really on the fence, but ultimately think you bring him back unless he's adamant that Gulutzen is his guy. He's done more good than bad, and is young enough that I expect the ratio to improve more and more in the future.

Good post.

So ultimately you think it is the coach gulutzan that is not getting enough out of the top guys, even though Treliving has improved the supporting cast around them?

Do you think the supporting cast is objectively better or is Gulutzan maybe getting more out of them than another coach might be able to?

I can get on board with the idea that the coach isn't right for the roster but when I look at the newcomers and returning players who are having success I don't think they would be producing as much with say Hartley, but maybe everyone would be finding more success with a coach like boudreau or byslma.

The reason I don't think a different coach would necessarily be having a bigger impact is when I look at your non-core returning players, the goal increase appears to be coming on the backs of frolik and backlund almost entirely. Bouma, stajan, ferland and Wideman are all much worse than last season in my opinion. This is what gives Gulutzan a bit of a pass for me, because I think these aforementioned players are honestly just bad, but they are so prominent on the roster that there is no option but to play them. Bouma is almost as bad as bollig was before being sent to the ahl and Wideman might be fortunate to get another contract in the nhl. But they basically need to be played every night.

I think the top players probably produced more last year because of the freedom to create but the players lacking creativity produced less because of unreliable systems play. I think this is what contributed to the abysmal special teams last year because the flames didn't have enough offensive weaponry for two units and the system's weren't good enough to compensate for the lack of ability.

This season the personnel might be better but the system's definitely are as well. I just had a look at poweplay points in the team and your analysis seems to hold true about the new players as versteeg and brouwer are in the top third if the team but there at the top of the list is backlund, historically not a tremendous pp producer.

Mostly though I look at this roster and I think how much better the team will be once they can get out from under Wideman, Smid, stajan Engelland and bouma. That's basically 15 million that can be added directly to the budget for top minute players and I think is pretty much the only reason at this point that the team isn't more competitive with the core assets they have. I don't think a coach changes those fortunes much at all.

[PlayfulGenius]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Literally not a person in the planet thought going with Elliott was rolling the dice. What a strange take

Gamble?...not at all...it was obvious they were getting an average NHL goaltender... Elliott been that for a long time... however, he's played below that level, unfortunately.

Many comments are villifying (sp?) BT because he hasn't turned out to be a top tier G... but he's not young, and he's never been that, so the expectation is a bit puzzling... I did expect he'd be a top 20ish G, though...maybe he'll rebound, yet.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Good post.

So ultimately you think it is the coach gulutzan that is not getting enough out of the top guys, even though Treliving has improved the supporting cast around them?

Do you think the supporting cast is objectively better or is Gulutzan maybe getting more out of them than another coach might be able to?

I can get on board with the idea that the coach isn't right for the roster but when I look at the newcomers and returning players who are having success I don't think they would be producing as much with say Hartley, but maybe everyone would be finding more success with a coach like boudreau or byslma.

When you look at what Colborne, Hudler, Jones, and Jooris are doing this year, yes, I think it's clear that the Flames upgraded their forwards, even remembering that Colborne had some impressive goal scoring streaks last season. And the fact that the goaltending has been upgraded shouldn't need argument - as I've said before, none of the three guys Calgary used as their #1 last year could even land backup jobs this year.

As for whether Gulutzan is getting more out of the new guys... Tkachuk is impossible to say, being a rookie. For the rest of the forwards: Brouwer is having one of his worst seasons production-wise in years; Chiasson is better than last year but still nowhere near his best year in Dallas; and Versteeg has had a bounce back season, but IMO you can chalk a lot of that up to increased opportunity and ice time (particularly on the PP, where he's getting 2:28/game this year vs. 1:07/ game last).

So, I'd say you have 2 guys who have flourished this year under Gulutzan (Backlund and Frolik), and the rest have either taken a big step back or just muddled along. Add to that the team overall not having an improved record despite an upgraded roster, and I can only conclude that the coach has failed to do his job.

Given that Gulutzen has no track record of success at the NHL level (two unremarkable seasons in Dallas followed by an assistant coaching stint for an unremarkable Canucks team under Desjardins, who himself has had no significant success in the NHL), I'm surprised so many people are loathe to consider that he might be the problem.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Literally not a person in the planet thought going with Elliott was rolling the dice. What a strange take

Say what you want about the two goaltenders he brought in this season but they were both on one year deals so Treliving ensured that if they don't work out the team could easily move from them. To me that's a positive.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Mike F

When you look at what Colborne, Hudler, Jones, and Jooris are doing this year, yes, I think it's clear that the Flames upgraded their forwards, even remembering that Colborne had some impressive goal scoring streaks last season. And the fact that the goaltending has been upgraded shouldn't need argument - as I've said before, none of the three guys Calgary used as their #1 last year could even land backup jobs this year.

As for whether Gulutzan is getting more out of the new guys... Tkachuk is impossible to say, being a rookie. For the rest of the forwards: Brouwer is having one of his worst seasons production-wise in years; Chiasson is better than last year but still nowhere near his best year in Dallas; and Versteeg has had a bounce back season, but IMO you can chalk a lot of that up to increased opportunity and ice time (particularly on the PP, where he's getting 2:28/game this year vs. 1:07/ game last).

So, I'd say you have 2 guys who have flourished this year under Gulutzan (Backlund and Frolik), and the rest have either taken a big step back or just muddled along. Add to that the team overall not having an improved record despite an upgraded roster, and I can only conclude that the coach has failed to do his job.

Given that Gulutzen has no track record of success at the NHL level (two unremarkable seasons in Dallas followed by an assistant coaching stint for an unremarkable Canucks team under Desjardins, who himself has had no significant success in the NHL), I'm surprised so many people are loathe to consider that he might be the problem.

This. There's a reason many here were underwhelmed with the hire and it's because there's nothing in his NHL career that points to him being a really good coach. No other teams were giving this guy the time of day after all. Being a good talker does not make one automatically a leader or men in a locker room. This hire was essentially a leap of faith by Treliving and to me that's a big mistake given the current state of the team that really needed a solid coach that could be able to get the best out of the players. He's had no answer for the struggles of Gaudreau, Bennett, Brodie, Monahan, Giordano. Monahan goes on the odd streak before disappearing but really the guys simply haven't got on track all season. A coach has to get his top guys going. That's his job and I don't buy that it takes half a season to get guys adjusted to a new system. We have seen enough of these players over the years to know that they shouldn't be playing this poorly.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Here's how the numbers look...

For the returning core players (Gaudreau, Monahan, Bennett, Giordano, Brodie, & Hamilton): Last year they scored 114 goals. This season they're on pace for 85. 29 goals less.

For the returning non-core players (Backlund, Frolik, Ferland, Stajan, Bouma, & Wideman): Last year they scored 50 goals. This year they're on pace for 69. 19 goals more.

Finally, the guys that were moved out (Colborne, Hudler, Jones, & Jooris) scored 42 goals last year. The new guys brought in this season (Tkachuk, Versteeg, Brouwer, & Chiasson) are on pace for 57 goals, 15 more.

My analysis: Treliving does the job of upgrading the roster player-wise (particularly if you take into account goaltending which, while it hasn't been lights-out this season, it's clearly better than last year's clusterfata), but Gulutzen gets less out of it, particularly at the top end.

What does this mean for judging Treliving's success and whether he should be brought back... I think he's done the nuts & bolts of GMing well; he's signed more good contracts than bad and upgraded the roster and the franchise's depth overall. However, he's also hamstrung the team the last two years: Once by failing to address the obvious goaltending problem the entire season, and once by whiffing on his head coach pick.

So, if you're an owner and you're looking at a guy who made some decent moves, but has failed to maintain the trajectory of on-ice success that it appeared to be on through self-inflicted wounds, do you buck up and give him the long-term extension I expect he's looking for, or do you make a move?

I'm really on the fence, but ultimately think you bring him back unless he's adamant that Gulutzen is his guy. He's done more good than bad, and is young enough that I expect the ratio to improve more and more in the future.

Great post!

Your points have the opposite effect on me, swinging me to the new GM camp.

1. BT is willing to burn a whole season before making changes (goalies last year).
2. His first coach hire should have been a safe pick, with Boudreau available this should have been easy for him.

He is rigid and misses opportunities because of it; we could have outbid teams for Jones and Talbot. Should have grabbed Boudreau the second he was let go.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Mike F

When you look at what Colborne, Hudler, Jones, and Jooris are doing this year, yes, I think it's clear that the Flames upgraded their forwards, even remembering that Colborne had some impressive goal scoring streaks last season. And the fact that the goaltending has been upgraded shouldn't need argument - as I've said before, none of the three guys Calgary used as their #1 last year could even land backup jobs this year.

As for whether Gulutzan is getting more out of the new guys... Tkachuk is impossible to say, being a rookie. For the rest of the forwards: Brouwer is having one of his worst seasons production-wise in years; Chiasson is better than last year but still nowhere near his best year in Dallas; and Versteeg has had a bounce back season, but IMO you can chalk a lot of that up to increased opportunity and ice time (particularly on the PP, where he's getting 2:28/game this year vs. 1:07/ game last).

So, I'd say you have 2 guys who have flourished this year under Gulutzan (Backlund and Frolik), and the rest have either taken a big step back or just muddled along. Add to that the team overall not having an improved record despite an upgraded roster, and I can only conclude that the coach has failed to do his job.

Given that Gulutzen has no track record of success at the NHL level (two unremarkable seasons in Dallas followed by an assistant coaching stint for an unremarkable Canucks team under Desjardins, who himself has had no significant success in the NHL), I'm surprised so many people are loathe to consider that he might be the problem.

... and GG leaves MB and MF alone. Hmmm.

[Iniggywetrust]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Great post!

Your points have the opposite effect on me, swinging me to the new GM camp.

1. BT is willing to burn a whole season before making changes (goalies last year).
2. His first coach hire should have been a safe pick, with Boudreau available this should have been easy for him.

He is rigid and misses opportunities because of it; we could have outbid teams for Jones and Talbot. Should have grabbed Boudreau the second he was let go.

I didn't realize you could forcefully make people work for the Calgary Flames.

There is a chance none of those men wanted to come to Calgary. Regardless of what Brad did.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

This. There's a reason many here were underwhelmed with the hire and it's because there's nothing in his NHL career that points to him being a really good coach. No other teams were giving this guy the time of day after all. Being a good talker does not make one automatically a leader or men in a locker room. This hire was essentially a leap of faith by Treliving and to me that's a big mistake given the current state of the team that really needed a solid coach that could be able to get the best out of the players. He's had no answer for the struggles of Gaudreau, Bennett, Brodie, Monahan, Giordano. Monahan goes on the odd streak before disappearing but really the guys simply haven't got on track all season. A coach has to get his top guys going. That's his job and I don't buy that it takes half a season to get guys adjusted to a new system. We have seen enough of these players over the years to know that they shouldn't be playing this poorly.

I generally approve of what Treliving has been doing but the Gulutzan hiring and the process was immensely screwed up I think. Obviously I don't know any of the details of the process that haven't been reported on or quoted but it seems like Treliving was very ineffective in trying to get one of the big name, highly qualified coaches that were available this past offseason. I'm not sure if he actually really liked Gulutzan and he was the #1 man or if they couldn't work out something with the others guys and Gulutzan was the only option. In any case, this was a terrible move.

[Kjesse]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Say what you want about the two goaltenders he brought in this season but they were both on one year deals so Treliving ensured that if they don't work out the team could easily move from them. To me that's a positive.

This is part of it... I find it hard to look at the overall work of Treliving with this team and come to the conclusion someone else would have done better. There is the GG hiring which might become his Achilles' Heel but beyond that, he's done quite well.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Iniggywetrust

I didn't realize you could forcefully make people work for the Calgary Flames.

There is a chance none of those men wanted to come to Calgary. Regardless of what Brad did.

So you're suggesting GG was the best guy that was interested in the job?

I don't really mind the concept of a younger, "emerging" coach for a young, emerging team. And Dallas obviously saw something in the guy when they hired him. But I do wonder what Burke and others think of the search for a coach and if all appropriate options were considered. I don't subscribe to the theory that bigger names weren't interested in the Flames.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Iniggywetrust

I didn't realize you could forcefully make people work for the Calgary Flames.

There is a chance none of those men wanted to come to Calgary. Regardless of what Brad did.

The goalies were traded.

Maybe Boudreau didn't want to be here; coaching a young up and coming team. But surely someone other than GG did.

Sorry, I don't buy the people hate working in Calgary or for the Flames argument.

[Badgers Nose]

The person that predicted GG was the Flames Eakins was right.

[ricosuave]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

The person that predicted GG was the Flames Eakins was right.

I think I'd rather have Eakins

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Mike F

So, I'd say you have 2 guys who have flourished this year under Gulutzan (Backlund and Frolik), and the rest have either taken a big step back or just muddled along. Add to that the team overall not having an improved record despite an upgraded roster, and I can only conclude that the coach has failed to do his job.

I figure these quotes from the other Friedman thread are relevant:

Calgary teammates say Backlund benefits from generally being left alone by head coach Glen Gulutzan."It’s all about confidence for him," one Flame said. "Tell him what you need and leave him be."

Backlund’s having a terrific year. How many meetings has he had with his coach? "I think two," Backlund responded.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

I figure these quotes from the other Friedman thread are relevant:

Calgary teammates say Backlund benefits from generally being left alone by head coach Glen Gulutzan."It’s all about confidence for him," one Flame said. "Tell him what you need and leave him be."

Backlund’s having a terrific year. How many meetings has he had with his coach? "I think two," Backlund responded.

So the team hasn't tuned out the coach yet! If they were, they would be preforming great!