[Rumour] Dreger: Backlund is available. Garrioch: Shane O'Brien available too

[The Original FFIV]

Originally Posted by EYE_Overstand

instead of a pick, backlund should be traded for another teams backlund

Curious as to what player you feel fits that profile - Jacob Josefson, Mattias Tendenby, etc.

Floated the Booth + 1st for Backlund on Canucks board and one poster would take it. Another thinks Connolly for Backs is lopsided in our favor and wouldn't happen

[FlameZilla]

It's very interesting to hear other teams fans' opinions of Backlund. Sounds like they value him higher than we might think.

[Miniac]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

It's very interesting to hear other teams fans' opinions of Backlund. Sounds like they value him higher than we might think.

I'm more interested in what other GMs think of his value.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Miniac

I'm more interested in what other GMs think of his value.

If you can find out then please let us know.

[Miniac]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

If you can find out then please let us know.

Will get right on it FlameZilla

[SeanCharles]

Its not too surprising these two are on the block. They dont fit in. Especially when we are fully healthy we have too many players.

Glencross-Stajan-Jones
Cammalleri-Colborne-Stempniak
Baertschi-Monahan-Hudler
Bouma-Backlund-Galiardi
Jones/Mcgrattan

Brodie-Gio
Russell-Wideman
Smid-Butler
O'Brien
Breen
Smith

Thats two players that need to be moved. All these players need to pass through waivers and/or are already established on the team.

Smith can be sent down without much worry but Breen probably wont pass through and I think B. Jones stays the year..

I can see a scenario in which we trade both Backlund and O'Brien for 1 player and send Smith down...

[Stay Golden]

I wish Butler trade rumors would making the rounds. Package Backlund and Butler together. Not that i am down on Backlund, but lets face it he is underachieving way below we all hoped he would from 3 seasons ago. Most Flames fans had hoped back then that Backlund would be the top Center unless they drafted a Monahan at some course over the last 3 years and that Backlund would be around 60 points a year. He may never achieve that as a Center in the NHL.
In the shortened season that helped him but i just don't see the grind of half a season being nearly the same as say this year.
He has to because he can't be effective for a full season as a 3rd line player and that is really what he is becoming if he was on most teams.
Butler should just be gone, Feaster is so damn high praise on this fool, maybe he thinks giving up the blue line and dropping back another 10 feet is the sing of a good D man?
Also get him off the PK it is ridiculous seeing his man being the one left open all the time.

[Calgary4LIfe]

There was a bit of arguments back and forth on the "Flames Exploring Trade Options" thread that was a bit off-topic there, and feel this post is better suited here.

Some advanced stats comparing Colborne with Backlund - so people who roll their eyes and hate this, just skip this post please - would rather not have an argument about the merits of advanced stats in itself, but rather how the two players (Colborne and Backlund) compare to one another in terms of Advanced Metrics:

LINK TO ALL FORWARDS ON CALGARY

Let me preface this argument with the fact that I don't profess to have an intimate knowledge of advanced stats. I am sure there are gurus here who could really explain a lot more of it (and correct me if I was wrong on any interpretations here). I think advanced stats help to pain the picture - helps to reduce bias a little bit (why is it that some people love a certain player on the team, while others can't stand him? We are ALL guilty of this a little bit I think, as I have my own personal favorites and biases - Backlund included).

Colborne and Backlund are both tied with 7 points each through 22 games. Seems pretty even, while discounting Backlund's minutes on the PK.

However, what I find telling when browsing through the advanced stats is this:

Player: Offensive Zone Start: Offensive Zone Finish:
Backlund 45.3% 55.0%
Colborne 57.9% 57.2%

So, what does this tell us?

Backlund is NOT being as sheltered as Colborne, and is being put into situations where it is vastly more difficult to generate offence.

Backlund is sent over the boards for far more defensive zone starts. However, when this is happening, the puck finishes in the offensive zone more often than not - the 2nd highest on the team (just behind David Jones in terms of positive increase). Impressive, actually.

Colborne on the other hand, gets the bulk of the offensive zone starts. Common sense indicates that it should be much easier for Colborne to generate offence if he is actually starting in the offensive zone. What is nice to see here, is that although Colborne is without a doubt being sheltered a bit and given a much more substantial advantage at generating offence, there is only a very slight drop in the offensive zone finishes - meaning he is defensively keeping his head above water.

Let's take a look at CORSI:
Backlund: -3.41
Colborne: -9.25

This metric tells us that more shots are being fired at Calgary's net than the opposition's net. However, the difference is 3x as much when comparing these two heads-up. Defensively, Backlund does a much better job (and I think even the posters who don't like Backlund much can see with their own eyes that Backlund is a very sound defensive player).

CORSI QofC:
Backlund: 2.366
Colborne: 1.927

Backlund is facing harder opponents, which adds to the 'harder minutes' side of the argument, and why it is more difficult to produce. However, the difference here isn't great enough to justify much of a difference in points, however. Though Backlund does play against harder competition, it is not significantly harder, but statistically it should factor into a point total over the course of a season (insignificant for a smaller sample size at this stage comparing the two here). However, given that he is playing against SLIGHTLY better opponents, and still having better advanced stats while being tied in points further emphasizes (to me anyways) that Backlund is actually doing better than Colborne.

What is not encouraging for Colborne is that a guy who is playing much harder minutes against better competition and in a position where generating offence is much more difficult - they are tied.

I am not saying that Colborne is not (or will not be) a good player. I actually think better of him than just after the Flames acquired him. However, he hasn't exactly beat Backlund out in any facet of the game itself.

This looks more like the organization doing one of 3 things to me:

1) Showing a preference for the 6'5" center, and trying to make him succeed and develop faster. Nothing wrong with that, as like they say - "You can't teach size".
2) Challenging Backlund to perform better. Perhaps challenging Backlund by giving him more adversity is what the organization feel is required.
3) The organization has soured somewhat on Backlund, and he is indeed on his way out.

The only thing at this point that Colborne has over Backlund statistically is size. I am not saying I disagree with what the Flames are doing - if they feel Colborne has more upside in his much larger frame, then so be it. I think we as fans would all prefer huge talented centers down the middle, huge wingers, huge defencemen, and huge goalies (as long as skill and speed are equal of course).

However, this is just illustrating that in no way is Colborne offensively out-performing Backlund, ESPECIALLY given such a simple thing like Zone Start and Finish.

Once again, I am NOT an expert on advanced stats. People who are can tell me if I am cherry-picking stats here, or misinterpreting them, and can hopefully correct me if needed.

Based only on my eyes, I prefer Backlund's game NOW. I think he is a more effective player, is a much faster player, and much more persistent. His offensive capabilities SEEM higher to me (seems to have more puck skills), but it is not exactly translating (though advanced metrics helps share some insight as to possibly why). He also has a much better shot than Colborne.

However, I really think that Colborne could very well be a much more valuable piece moving forward. He seems to be developing, doesn't seem to have any particular weaknesses that can't be worked on, is playing much more aggressively now than he started off the season being, and just has that wonderful size.

In the end, I hope they keep Backlund and trade Stajan. Though Stajan has been better in the last 2 seasons, he just isn't a long-term solution here. I don't think he is strong enough to shoulder the burden either on the top line. I would much rather have an exposed Backlund on the top line (who plays tough minutes and is generally a pretty good defensive presence) who still has possible room to further develop his game.

I generally don't see this as a Colborne vs Backlund situation. It should be a Backlund vs Stajan situation if you ask me.

[saillias]

Being 6'5" isn't of much benefit when you get knocked on your ass as often as Matt Stajan. Jones too for that matter.

[Yrebmi]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I generally don't see this as a Colborne vs Backlund situation. It should be a Backlund vs Stajan situation if you ask me.

How does Stajan and even Monahan compare on those stats?

I wonder how quality of competition is determined.

I think a telling point is that Colborne does seem to be improving faster than Backs and perhaps is seen as having a higher ceiling. I would be interested in how their stats compare over the last 10 games, then the last 5.

[nik-]

And one thing that bothers me is talk of Backlund's pedigree over Colborne. Colborne was taken one draft later and 8 spots higher. He's not some 19 year old kid out of the 4th round.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Yrebmi

How does Stajan and even Monahan compare on those stats?

I wonder how quality of competition is determined.

I think a telling point is that Colborne does seem to be improving faster than Backs and perhaps is seen as having a higher ceiling. I would be interested in how their stats compare over the last 10 games, then the last 5.

Backlund's advanced stats goodness was apparent last year as well. Maybe the real issue is that while he has good fundamentals he isn't improving and ultimately isn't producing. How long do they wait for him? Colbourne may have worse fundamental stats but i think most would agree he's visibly improving over his short tenure here.

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I generally don't see this as a Colborne vs Backlund situation. It should be a Backlund vs Stajan situation if you ask me.

In a way you are right. But it really truly comes down to Backlund vs potential Backlund.

Hartley is admittedly really high on Backlund and in turn has certain expectations of him. He developed these expectations because of the flashes of potential that Backlund exudes on occasion.

Hartley is pushing him and being hard on him to see if he can extract those flashes on more occasion.

Backlund has been injury prone in his career too and it may have hurt his development. Flames need to find out what they have in Backlund because they need to make a decision on Stajan.

Moving forward we need a reliable center to ensure we ease Monahan, Colborne and Knight into bigger roles instead of throwing them to the wolves.

Backlund has been good defensively and at driving the play. But Street is of a similar ilk. I know Backlund is more talented but with his offensive luck/results this year Backlund doesn't offer a significant enough amount more of offense to consider them that different.

Stajan can be responsible defensively and drive possession and produce offense while sheltering the young guys. So he has the leg up.

I am not a Stajan fan but do we want to go into next season with our center depth as such:

Backlund
Monahan
Colborne
Knight

What if Backs continues to not produce offensively? or gets hurt?

We want to compete in the west not get embarrassed every night.

Backlund is good at doing the little things defensively to help make work in the defensive zone easier but he needs to take the next step and produce offense. I know his zone start ratio makes things difficult but he isn't going to be handed an easy pass on this.

Hartley is challenging him because he knows Backlund has more to offer and wants to see if he can get it out of him. Backlund has to go out there and grab it.

In regards to Colborne vs Backlund stats. I think you need to take into consideration the importance in Colborne's points (clutch moments) and the impact he has had in the SO.

Fact is, at this moment Backlund offers the least out of the 4 centers on the Flames. Stajan is solid yet unimpressive at everything, Colborne is good on breakaways/SO and has an impressive frame and reach combined with skill, and Monahan is Money.

I want Backlund here but he needs to take a huge step forward and earn his way up the lineup.

[djsFlames]

Just wanted to also add that Bleacher Report is amateur garbage, because it simply can't be said enough.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

There was a bit of arguments back and forth on the "Flames Exploring Trade Options" thread that was a bit off-topic there, and feel this post is better suited here.

Some advanced stats comparing Colborne with Backlund - so people who roll their eyes and hate this, just skip this post please

But it's important to realize how heavily the stats have been skewed simply because of the start of the season. Backlund had played roughly half of his 246 total minutes of even strength ice-time in the first 8 games.

7 of those games were when Stajan was out of the line up and the center depth was Backlund and 3 rookies, Monahan, Street and Colborne. So during that stretch he was getting 20 minutes of ice time and did have the hardest competition pretty much by default as the veteran player. As the season went on Monahan and Colborne were given more responsibilities in the form of ice-time and Street was sent down in favour of a healthy Stajan. So those stats in terms of quality of competition and defensive zone starts would probably change quite heavily if you looked at them once the team "normalized" in maybe the last month or 10 games or so. Some are still pretty nice stats to have in any context, like his offensive zone finishes - offensive zone starts but it's not all that different from Galiardi (which makes sense since they've played the most together).

And when it comes down to it, Colborne and Backlund have had near identical linemates throughout the season on ES. Backlund has played ~50% of his time with Galiardi, so has Colborne. Backlund and Colborne (within a percent or two) have played nearly the same amount with McGrattan, Jackman, Bouma and Jones. The only noticeable difference between the two is that Backlund had played a lot with Hudler while Colborne has played a lot with Cammalleri. And yet when Colborne is on the ice his teammates generate (pro-rated over 60 minutes) nearly a goal more than when Backlund is on the ice and get scored on less. A big part of that surely has to be because of the difference in offensive zone starts, but there is room to say that Colborne has a greater positive effect on his teammates than Backlund based on that data.

Of course we're still at the point where one or two good games for either player could change the stats quite a bit.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

But it's important to realize how heavily the stats have been skewed simply because of the start of the season. Backlund had played roughly half of his 246 total minutes of even strength ice-time in the first 8 games.

7 of those games were when Stajan was out of the line up and the center depth was Backlund and 3 rookies, Monahan, Street and Colborne. So during that stretch he was getting 20 minutes of ice time and did have the hardest competition pretty much by default as the veteran player. As the season went on Monahan and Colborne were given more responsibilities in the form of ice-time and Street was sent down in favour of a healthy Stajan. So those stats in terms of quality of competition and defensive zone starts would probably change quite heavily if you looked at them once the team "normalized" in maybe the last month or 10 games or so. Some are still pretty nice stats to have in any context, like his offensive zone finishes - offensive zone starts but it's not all that different from Galiardi (which makes sense since they've played the most together).

And when it comes down to it, Colborne and Backlund have had near identical linemates throughout the season on ES. Backlund has played ~50% of his time with Galiardi, so has Colborne. Backlund and Colborne (within a percent or two) have played nearly the same amount with McGrattan, Jackman, Bouma and Jones. The only noticeable difference between the two is that Backlund had played a lot with Hudler while Colborne has played a lot with Cammalleri. And yet when Colborne is on the ice his teammates generate (pro-rated over 60 minutes) nearly a goal more than when Backlund is on the ice and get scored on less. A big part of that surely has to be because of the difference in offensive zone starts, but there is room to say that Colborne has a greater positive effect on his teammates than Backlund based on that data.

Of course we're still at the point where one or two good games for either player could change the stats quite a bit.

Very good points as well.

I didn't see the goals scored for and against over 60 minutes, and I didn't check to see which wingers played with Backlund and Colborne. I actually forgot that Hudler was playing with Backlund a bit, and Colborne has been paired with Cammalleri (well, since Cammy returned to the lineup). Was the difference significant in minutes played? I think Hudler has been having a fantastic offensive season, but defensively he has been less than stellar - well, at least the zone faceoffs. The difference between him and Cammalleri are vastly different:

Offensive Zone Start O-Zone Finish
Cammalleri 54.1 58.0
Hudler 62.1 49.4

With Goals for and against per 60 minutes, again Cammalleri is further ahead:

Goals for 60 minutes
Cammalleri 1.79
Hudler 1.06

This is a very large difference between the two wingers, and could this POSSIBLY be skewing the goals for and against while comparing between Backlund and Colborne's ice time?

It is still early in the season, and therefore the small sample sizes really do become troublesome when trying to compare between players and lines. Watching the games it does SEEM that Backlund does a much better job of driving possession, so I am rather surprised that the goals against is higher when he is on the ice, though perhaps it is my personal bias interfering with what I am watching (i.e. I see what I want to see).

Good pickup though! I totally missed the goals for and against. This will be interesting to see the results between the two centers for the rest of the season and how things normalize, and how Hartley manages the two of them (if they are still on the same team anyways). Thanks!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Very good points as well.

I didn't see the goals scored for and against over 60 minutes, and I didn't check to see which wingers played with Backlund and Colborne. I actually forgot that Hudler was playing with Backlund a bit, and Colborne has been paired with Cammalleri (well, since Cammy returned to the lineup). Was the difference significant in minutes played? I think Hudler has been having a fantastic offensive season, but defensively he has been less than stellar - well, at least the zone faceoffs. The difference between him and Cammalleri are vastly different:

Offensive Zone Start O-Zone Finish
Cammalleri 54.1 58.0
Hudler 62.1 49.4

With Goals for and against per 60 minutes, again Cammalleri is further ahead:

Goals for 60 minutes
Cammalleri 1.79
Hudler 1.06

This is a very large difference between the two wingers, and could this POSSIBLY be skewing the goals for and against while comparing between Backlund and Colborne's ice time?

It is still early in the season, and therefore the small sample sizes really do become troublesome when trying to compare between players and lines. Watching the games it does SEEM that Backlund does a much better job of driving possession, so I am rather surprised that the goals against is higher when he is on the ice, though perhaps it is my personal bias interfering with what I am watching (i.e. I see what I want to see).

Good pickup though! I totally missed the goals for and against. This will be interesting to see the results between the two centers for the rest of the season and how things normalize, and how Hartley manages the two of them (if they are still on the same team anyways). Thanks!

A couple things. First the stats we've been using (or I have been at least) are 5 on 5, which I incorrectly labelled ES, and are not up to date. They are missing the latest game, and both Backlund and Colborne were on the ice for a GF. Not the biggest deal but Backlund gets a bit of a raw deal since (without the Florida game counted) he's only been on the ice for 6 "5 vs 5" goals for. He's been on the ice for 1 SH goal, which doesn't get counted, and I imagine a "4 vs 4" goal since he still has one goal for unaccounted for.

So his On Ice Team GF/60 is coming up as 1.46 but will jump to 1.65 simply because of the Florida game. Goes to show how dynamic the stats still are. But that's still significantly different than Colborne's On Ice Team GF/60 which is at 2.52.

And Colborne, pre-Florida at least, has played 46% of his 5v5 time with Cammalleri while Backlund has played 41% of his 5v5 time with Hudler. So depending on how you want to analyze those 2 players in terms of offense and defense they could make a significant difference. If you just go with G/60, Cammalleri is crushing Hudler. However, if you go for Team GF/60, Hudler has Cammalleri beat. Does it mean that Hudler is generating more offense? Maybe, maybe not, could be because of his line mates (at least away from Backlund), offensive zone starts and line matchups etc.

And like you said it's just too early to really take a look at these stats. But I would say that even I was surprised to see that Backlund has only been on the ice for 7 goals for while playing 5 vs 5. Bouma's been on the ice for 6 and he's had significant less ice-time and definitely worse linemates throughout the season. Even if Backlund was playing exclusively with McGrattan and Jackman that's a low number, and despite his demotions those guys aren't anywhere close to his most played with linemates yet. 5 on 5, in order, he's played with Galiardi, Hudler, Jones, Bouma and Glencross more than them.

[Shawnski]

Trade rumours are getting to him...

"I can’t change my game too much. I did that earlier in my career in the NHL and that’s what’s hurting me a little bit now. I’m trying to find my way back again, being more offensive. That’s how I got into this league in the first place."

“Everybody knows I’m not happy where I am right now. That’s no secret. There’s no use lying about that. Everybody wants to play as much as possible. I want to help the team more than I do right now."

“So, it’s tough. Yeah … very tough.”

So one coach wants him more defensively sound, which he works on, then the next coach wants more offense out of him. Crappy situation now.

Try him on the wing to get him more playing time.

[Itse]

Sounds like a clean slate could do him some good. Which is not a criticism on him or Hartley / the Flames. It is what it is.

Possibly a slight criticism of Brent Sutter, who I think actually did misuse Backlund to some extent.

[C_of_Red28]

its way too early to trade for this guy.. let him develop with the kids.. Depth is key for the future...