Edmonton is No Good XI: Mud, Sweatpants and Tiers

[Bingo]

I think he's missing the element of someone will emerge in that group and get to 93 points. If St. Louis holds that's your hurdle.

If every team is bad, it's likely one or two of them benefit by playing all the other cappy teams.

If the hurdle is 95 (might be 1-2 points high) the Oilers need to go 39-20-3 the rest of the way to get in. That's a 107 point pace.

Not a good plan to just assume the middling teams just stay at .500 with no one emerging.

Flames need to go 36-21-3 (103 point pace)

[Enoch Root]

I think most of what he says (about the other teams) is fairly accurate. The stretch comes with his assumption that they will simply get better defensively, just because they did so in past years.

This team is bad defensively. And they have a goaltending problem. Simply assuming those things will fix themselves, is a bold strategy.

[dash_pinched]

Originally Posted by Torture

A bit? He's so far out on the limb that he's not on the tree anymore and we're just waiting for the cartoon "look down" before he goes crashing to the ground.

I know this defies the law of gravity, but I never studied law...

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think he's missing the element of someone will emerge in that group and get to 93 points. If St. Louis holds that's your hurdle.

If every team is bad, it's likely one or two of them benefit by playing all the other cappy teams.

If the hurdle is 95 (might be 1-2 points high) the Oilers need to go 39-20-3 the rest of the way to get in. That's a 107 point pace.

Not a good plan to just assume the middling teams just stay at .500 with no one emerging.

Flames need to go 36-21-3 (103 point pace)

And it is incredibly unlikely that all the middling teams stay at .500. The league will more likely than not return close to the mean as some teams are heating up while others are falling. Some years are higher and some are lower in terms of points to make the playoffs, but there are always teams that make a push and teams that fall flat.
The Oilers are in the position that the Canucks have had the last few years and even with the Canucks going on heaters in the second half they ended up well outside the playoffs. It would take a very significant run by the Oilers and a bunch of teams falling back to get that team back into the contention.

[direwolf]

Oilers win two games-- one against a Washington team that didn't bother showing up after Thanksgiving dinner. The other against a garbage Ducks team who have lost 6 straight. And suddenly it's "don't worry, everyone. The Oilers will make the playoffs. Everything is fine."

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think he's missing the element of someone will emerge in that group and get to 93 points. If St. Louis holds that's your hurdle.

If every team is bad, it's likely one or two of them benefit by playing all the other cappy teams.

If the hurdle is 95 (might be 1-2 points high) the Oilers need to go 39-20-3 the rest of the way to get in. That's a 107 point pace.

Not a good plan to just assume the middling teams just stay at .500 with no one emerging.

Flames need to go 36-21-3 (103 point pace)

I only skimmed the article but it sounds like he's assuming all of his assumptions about the other teams will come true and that is why the Oilers will make the playoffs. Highly unlikely, if so.

[SaskyFlamesFan]

If you look at each teams (in the wild card race) last 10 games the Oilers have gained ground on:

Min 4 pts (even though Min lost 7 in a row)
Ana 6 pts (Ducks have lost 6 in a row)
Ari 1 pt

They have lost ground on:
STL 2 pts
Cgy 2 pts
Sea 1 pt
Nas 2 pts

While they aren’t losing ground the only teams they have made significant gains on are two teams on a 6 and 7 game losing skid. It is so tough to make up ground let alone when you have to pass 5 teams 1/4 through the season. They probably have to go a minimum 6-2-1 every 10 game segment to make the playoffs and gain enough ground.

My prediction is that by mid-Jan they are too far out for it to be realistic.

[Torture]

Edmonton has rebounded from bad stretches before and they will again. However, trying to earn home ice advantage in the playoffs might be too big of an ask. And that could be a problem if they want to go deep in the playoffs, but the first step is making the playoffs, and despite their ugly start, you should expect them to start climbing the standings.

Rock solid analysis. TDLR: They've been bad, but you should expect them to start winning because they're so good. Then he just regurgitates some schedule details with zero analysis and concludes "Oilers in playoffs by Christmas".

I half wonder if it was written by AI lol.

[Draug]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think he's missing the element of someone will emerge in that group and get to 93 points. If St. Louis holds that's your hurdle.

If every team is bad, it's likely one or two of them benefit by playing all the other cappy teams.

If the hurdle is 95 (might be 1-2 points high) the Oilers need to go 39-20-3 the rest of the way to get in. That's a 107 point pace.

Not a good plan to just assume the middling teams just stay at .500 with no one emerging.

Flames need to go 36-21-3 (103 point pace)

Ouch! Even with the Flames tied for a wildcat spot today, it's really far more likely they miss than make it when you look at the math behind it.

Really wish we'd have 3pt games so the standings made sense by just looking, rather that doing mathematical analysis to figure out what the Standings really are

[butterfly]

Real standings with loser points removed (baseball/basketball style):

Team W L PCT GB
==================
COL 15 06 .714 --
LA‎K 13 06 .684 1
LAS 14 08 .636 1½
VAN 14 08 .636 1½
DAL 12 07 .632 2
WPG 12 08 .600 2½
STL 11 09 .550 3½
NSH 10 10 .500 4½
-------------------
ARI 09 11 .450 5½
ANA 09 12 .429 6
CGY 09 13 .409 6½
SEA 08 14 .364 7½
EDM 07 13 .350 7½
CHI 06 13 .316 8
MIN 05 14 .263 9
SJS 05 17 .227 10½

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Real standings with loser points removed (baseball/basketball style):

Team W L PCT GB
==================
COL 15 06 .714 --
LA‎K 13 06 .684 1
LAS 14 08 .636 1½
VAN 14 08 .636 1½
DAL 12 07 .632 2
WPG 12 08 .600 2½
STL 11 09 .550 3½
NSH 10 10 .500 4½
-------------------
ARI 09 11 .450 5½
ANA 09 12 .429 6
CGY 09 13 .409 6½
SEA 08 14 .364 7½
EDM 07 13 .350 7½
CHI 06 13 .316 8
MIN 05 14 .263 9
SJS 05 17 .227 10½

It's not really the real standings though. Because winning in 3v3 or OT should be devalued too - baseball and basketball don't change their rules in OT. If you leave in OT/SO wins but only remove OT/SO losses you are really exaggerating the standings in favor of those teams that are good in SO/OT.

More representative would be Regulation W - Regulation L - Regulation T

Kings: 13-3-3 - 29 points - .763
Colorado: 14-6-1 - 29 points - .690
Vancouver: 13-7-2 - 28 points - .636
Vegas: 10-5-7 - 27 points - .614
Dallas: 9-5-5 - 23 points - .605
Winnipeg: 10-6-4 - 24 points - .600
St.Louis: 10-8-2 - 22 points - .550
Nashville: 9-10-1 - 19 points - .475
Arizona: 7-9-4 - 18 points - .450
Calgary: 7-10-5 - 19 points - .432
Seattle: 5-9-8 - 18 points - .409
Anaheim: 6-12-3 - 15 points - .357
Edmonton: 6-12-2 - 14 points - .350
Minnesota: 4-10-5 - 13 points - .342
San Jose: 5-15-2 - 12 points - .273
Chicago: 4-13-2 - 10 points - .263

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Draug

Ouch! Even with the Flames tied for a wildcat spot today, it's really far more likely they miss than make it when you look at the math behind it.

Really wish we'd have 3pt games so the standings made sense by just looking, rather that doing mathematical analysis to figure out what the Standings really are

totally agree the math, let alone the roster realities might make the playoffs a stretch (do-able but a stretch) for the local heroes. still at this point some of the projections are a bit early - for example the Flames having played 34% of their road games already, to Nashville at 21% etc. they've worked themselves into the conversations. both the PP and the shootout need to improve for sure

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's not really the real standings though. Because winning in 3v3 or OT should be devalued too - baseball and basketball don't change their rules in OT.

More representative would be Regulation W - Regulation L - Regulation T

Real Standings SuperMatt style:



Tm. GP RW RL OT Pts%
====================
LAK 19 13 03 03 .763
COL 21 14 06 01 .690
VAN 22 13 07 02 .636
LAS 22 10 05 07 .614
DAL 19 09 05 05 .605
WPG 20 10 06 04 .600
STL 20 10 08 02 .550
NSH 20 09 10 01 .475
--------------------
ARI 20 07 09 04 .450
CGY 22 07 10 05 .432
SEA 22 05 09 08 .409
ANA 21 06 12 03 .357
EDM 20 06 12 02 .350
MIN 19 04 10 05 .342
SJS 22 05 15 02 .273
CHI 19 04 13 02 .263

[Enoch Root]

do it with a 3-2-1 system

[butterfly]

Ugh, you owe me a drink. I didn't know you were going to do it!

[SuperMatt18]

Really just shows that IMO the Kings and Avs are probably the class of the West right now.

Edit: Also interested in a 3-2-1 system, but should end up being pretty close to how it looks in the regulation win - regulation loss - regulation tie system. But since it's unlikely the NHL ever gets rid of OT/SO the 3-2-1 system is easily the one that makes the most sense for them to use.

[butterfly]

Not to derail the thread: no matter which system we tried, Edmonton is no good.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Real Standings SuperMatt style:



Tm. GP RW RL OT Pts%
====================
LAK 19 13 03 03 .763
COL 21 14 06 01 .690
VAN 22 13 07 02 .636
LAS 22 10 05 07 .614
DAL 19 09 05 05 .605
WPG 20 10 06 04 .600
STL 20 10 08 02 .550
NSH 20 09 10 01 .475
--------------------
ARI 20 07 09 04 .450
CGY 22 07 10 05 .432
SEA 22 05 09 08 .409
ANA 21 06 12 03 .357
EDM 20 06 12 02 .350
MIN 19 04 10 05 .342
SJS 22 05 15 02 .273
CHI 19 04 13 02 .263

Real Standings Buff Style:

1. Calgary
2-31. everyone else
32. Edmonton

Edmonton is no good!

[Locke]

Originally Posted by D as in David

And you don't hear that everyday.

My good friend is a staunch Eisbaren fan. He's got the cap and the jersey and everything.

Eisbaren!!

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Locke

My good friend is a staunch Eisbaren fan. He's got the cap and the jersey and everything.

Eisbaren!!

From Wikipedia

Eisbären Berlin is a professional ice hockey team based in Berlin, Germany. The team competes in the Deutsche Eishockey Liga, the highest level of play in professional German ice hockey, and is also one of the league's founding members.
Arena/Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Arena Berlin
Captain: Kai Wissmann
Founded: 1954; 69 years ago
General manager: Peter-John Lee
Head coach: Serge Aubin
League: Deutsche Eishockey Liga

Nice!