Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Strange Brew]

You have to look at the whole picture when it comes to evaluating any GM. It's awfully mixed with BT so at some level, I understand how losing a superstar for nothing could be the tipping point for some people.

[TheIronMaiden]

The term of the JG contract scares me. I don't see a great option outside of signing him, but will be be worth 10M+ after the age of 32? I am not sure.

[OptimalTates]

Oh, sorry, Tampa also didn't have 17% cap players but rather Kucherov (12%), Vasilevskiy (12%), Stamkos (12%), Hedman (11%) and Point's extension (12%). Hedman's at the tail end of his contract so his 11%, at the time of signing has dropped to 9.5%.

And I think that's what you hope with a UFA like Gaudreau that the cap goes up enough to offset any decline so that in year 5 or so of his contract that you're getting max value from him as a percentage of cap.

But also the "No team has won the Cup with a 10M player" while a fact that can't be argued, is especially dubious when you look at the last three Stanley Cup finals (Tampa x3, Montreal, Colorado, Dallas).

Vasilevskiy (9.5), Kucherov (9.5), Point (to be 9.5), Price (10.5), Seguin (9.85), Benn (9.5), Rantanen (9.25), Makar (9.0). Is Colorado not in the finals if Makar is making 10M? No dynasty if Kucherov has a 0.5M raise? Does Montreal make the finals if they let Price walk if he wouldn't take 9.999M? lol.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Oh, sorry, Tampa also didn't have 17% cap players but rather Kucherov (12%), Vasilevskiy (12%), Stamkos (12%), Hedman (11%) and Point's extension (12%). Hedman's at the tail end of his contract so his 11%, at the time of signing has dropped to 9.5%.

And I think that's what you hope with a UFA like Gaudreau that the cap goes up enough to offset any decline so that in year 5 or so of his contract that you're getting max value from him as a percentage of cap.

But also the "No team has won the Cup with a 10M player" while a fact that can't be argued, is especially dubious when you look at the last three Stanley Cup finals (Tampa x3, Montreal, Colorado, Dallas).

Vasilevskiy (9.5), Kucherov (9.5), Point (to be 9.5), Price (10.5), Seguin (9.85), Benn (9.5), Rantanen (9.25), Makar (9.0). Is Colorado not in the finals if Makar is making 10M? No dynasty if Kucherov has a 0.5M raise? Does Montreal make the finals if they let Price walk if he wouldn't take 9.999M? lol.

But when you sign a player for more money does it impact following contracts for your teammates?

Kucherov signs for $10 mil does vaz and point get $10 mil as well?

If Rantanen got $10 mil maybe makar goes higher and so does landeskog?

If Johnny gets $11 mil what does Lindholm and Tkachuk get? If they all want to stay and win they probably aren’t ok with Johnny getting $11 and they take a discount to keep team together when Johnny didn’t. They probably want $11 mil as well

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

There was a story on the Athletic a few weeks ago that goes over how unlucky Canadian teams have been over the decades in regards to winning a cup.

https://theathletic.com/3353799/2022...y-cup-drought/





There's a lot of parity in the league so the 10 million theory is likely nothing more than chance as I don't think salary structure has much of a bearing and it's more about bounces and luck which simply haven't gone the way of Canadian teams for some reason.

I think there are other factors at play too. Winnipeg and Ottawa aren't cap teams, several teams are undesirable destinations for lots of players - so that is a handicap. Take the Adam Fox situation... What could the team look like with a young Norris calibre D-man? Or trying to acquire Mark Stone, he wouldn't sign long term here because he didn't want to play here. There are plenty of other examples, but I don't think it is by chance Canada hasn't won a cup in 28 years.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The term of the JG contract scares me. I don't see a great option outside of signing him, but will be be worth 10M+ after the age of 32? I am not sure.

It definitely won't be worth it for the whole contract - but that is pretty much the case with all long term UFA deals.

[MrMike]

Yeah, I’d love to be in the alternate time line where we have Stone, Fox and Kadri

[FlamesAddiction]

Honestly, the main reason why the Fox thing bothers me is that I think it would have been cool to have a Fox and Wolf on the team one day. Dumb reason, I know.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The term of the JG contract scares me. I don't see a great option outside of signing him, but will be be worth 10M+ after the age of 32? I am not sure.

That's the least of my worries. I think giving Tkachuk 8 years is more of a concern, as his game is more likely to fall off the cliff as he gets older (IMO). Would be fine giving him a shorter deal 4-5 years, which the player might also want if he's looking to leverage one more big contract after that.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Honestly, the main reason why the Fox thing bothers me is that I think it would have been cool to have a Fox and Wolf on the team one day. Dumb reason, I know.

Interesting.

The main reason why it bothers me is that the Flames got robbed of a talented right shot offensive defenseman who has already won a Norris trophy before his ELC was even done, because......the rules allow for that to happen. Pretty mind boggling to be honest.

Guess I'm just different that way.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Honestly, the main reason why the Fox thing bothers me is that I think it would have been cool to have a Fox and Wolf on the team one day. Dumb reason, I know.

Would you have then wanted to trade for Bear?

[The Yen Man]

If I'm Tkatchuk, and looking to cash in on another longterm contract in a few years, the max I'd sign for is 3 years. There's no way I'd sign for any longer than that, and then really cash in on a 7 or 8 year deal when I'm 27/28. That's the way the maximize it. In 3 years, HRR will be up, cap will be up, and $9M a year today might be the equivalent to $10M in a couple years. Really, he timed it perfectly IMO.

This is, of course, assuming he's still performing at a high level in the next 3 or 4 years. I think playing with Johnny, he'll continue to do so.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Realistically, who from the NJ area has cap space for JG?

New Jersey and...

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Realistically, who from the NJ area has cap space for JG?

New Jersey and...

Rangers, Islanders. Philly has trade options that could make it work. Boston is really the only one that would struggle to make the fit, but they could probably figure it out.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The term of the JG contract scares me. I don't see a great option outside of signing him, but will be be worth 10M+ after the age of 32? I am not sure.

Probably not, just like 95% of of UFA's who sign long term contracts.

It's not really relevant as the option is to likely never contend.

If it helps you sleep at night, think about Johnny getting paid way more in the initial years and less later on, and it's just an averaging out of his cap hit.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Interesting.

The main reason why it bothers me is that the Flames got robbed of a talented right shot offensive defenseman who has already won a Norris trophy before his ELC was even done, because......the rules allow for that to happen. Pretty mind boggling to be honest.

Guess I'm just different that way.

The rules have always allowed all players to agree not to sign with the team that drafted them and effectively opt out.

This is not loop hole that will ever get corrected, as it's not considered a loop hole.

[Bonded]

I think Gaudreau holds up well. His playstyle doesn't rely on crazy speed or anything and he hasn't bene injured much

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The rules have always allowed all players to agree not to sign with the team that drafted them and effectively opt out.

This is not loop hole that will ever get corrected, as it's not considered a loop hole.

I don't care what you call it or how long it's been allowed, it's idiotic.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I think there are other factors at play too. Winnipeg and Ottawa aren't cap teams, several teams are undesirable destinations for lots of players - so that is a handicap. Take the Adam Fox situation... What could the team look like with a young Norris calibre D-man? Or trying to acquire Mark Stone, he wouldn't sign long term here because he didn't want to play here. There are plenty of other examples, but I don't think it is by chance Canada hasn't won a cup in 28 years.

Originally Posted by MrMike

Yeah, I’d love to be in the alternate time line where we have Stone, Fox and Kadri

I'm perfectly OK with missing out on Stone. It seems to me like he's gone the way of Erik Karlson since signing in LV.

Would have loved to get Kadri and keep Fox, but we'd have less cap space today for re-signing Johnny, Tkachuk and Mangiapane - and we'd also have to come up with 10M for Fox next season.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think Gaudreau holds up well. His playstyle doesn't rely on crazy speed or anything and he hasn't been injured much

Hopefully he holds up like Patrick Kane, although Kane was younger when he signed his 8 year contract. Advantages of starting right from junior hockey.