Russia invades Ukraine

[peter12]

By delaying mechanized envelopment and turning their major cities into fortresses, the Ukrainians are still reserving the worst for the Russians. A bad army performing poorly in open countryside will have a much worse time in an urban setting - see Grozny.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Maybe in WWII. Only 15K Soviet soldiers died in 10 years in Afghanistan, about 10K in the two wars in Chechnya combined, and under 100 in Georgia. If Russia keeps losing 300 a day for the foreseeable future, this will be their deadliest war since WWII in a little over a month.

All I’m saying is, don’t underestimate the willingness of Russian leaders to spend the lives of thousands of their soldiers.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Here would be my my peace proposal if I were mediating between Ukraine and Russia:


1. Russia gains no territory as spoils of war.

2. Ukraine adopts official neutrality and NATO membership is taken off the table. Possible EU membership is not taken off the table.

3. Ukraine recognizes the Luhansk and Donetsk Republics as independent. Both republics need to adopt neutrality and not be annexed by Russia. Both need to be de-militarized. Ukrainians in both republics may keep their Ukrainian citizenship and are free to move between Ukraine and those areas.

4. A de-militarized zone along the Ukrainian-Belarussian and Ukraine-Russian borders is created. NATO and Russia scale down the militarization in the Baltic region.

5. Ukraine drops all claims to Crimea and agrees allow it access to freshwater. Russia is granted a secure land bridge corridor to Crimea in Ukraine. To remain part of Ukraine, but managed as a free-zone so that Crimea can be properly developed.

6. Ukraine gets XX% of the natural resource revenue from the economic zone around Crimea in exchange for freshwater and dropping their claims to the area.

7. Russia pays reparations in exchange for dropping sanctions.


Would that be fair for both sides?

My counter:

1. Russia gets the #### out of Ukraine

2. Ukraine can do whatever it wants as an independent nation.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

US intel estimates Russian dead at up to 4000

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...tary-rcna19128

Probably a lot more realistic than Ukraine's 10,000+ numbers, but it's still incredibly high. 4000 dead over 12 days of war is over 300 soldiers dying per day. I really don't see how Russia can maintain this invasion if they keep losing soldiers and equipment at this rate

To put this 4,000 KIA number in perspective, Russia has suffered almost the same number of military deaths in less than two weeks in Ukraine as the USA suffered in nearly nine years in Iraq (4,507 American dead from Mar 2003 - Dec 2011). During US involvement in the Vietnam War (1965-1975), a total of 58,200 Americans lost their lives, an average of about 112 per week. Russian losses in Ukraine so far are nearly 10x that rate.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Cappy

My counter:

1. Russia gets the #### out of Ukraine

2. Ukraine can do whatever it wants as an independent nation.

The key to a good negotiation is finding something the other side will say yes to, usually as quickly as possible (time kills deals)... While your counter would be ideal, there's zero change of Putin saying yes to it in anytime in the near future - he'll just keep bombarding Ukrainian cities, civilians and sending his troops to the meat grinder... or escalates and things get even worse.

Practically speaking, the territories are all but lost officially, so acknowledging that means very little.

[karl262]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Anyone know of anywhere to buy Ukraine car decals or flags locally right now? Everything online seems to be weeks to months out.

Just get this car, flag built in

[peter12]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

To put this 4,000 KIA number in perspective, Russia has suffered almost the same number of military deaths in less than two weeks in Ukraine as the USA suffered in nearly nine years in Iraq (4,507 American dead from Mar 2003 - Dec 2011). During US involvement in the Vietnam War (1965-1975), a total of 58,200 Americans lost their lives, an average of about 112 per week. Russian losses in Ukraine so far are nearly 10x that rate.

The deadliness of near peer combat compounded by the sheer incompetence of the attacker against a fairly well-supplied and very motivated defender.

[FlameOn]

MOD map updates for the day. Following yesterday's Ukrainian counter attack north of Kyiv, Russians appear to be pushing south again. For the second straight day, several towns in north Ukraine are still encircled with Russia's Western MD Grouping controlling the roads from the boarder to Kiev. Elements of Russia's Southern MD grouping appear to have advanced and taken control of a larger part of the east Ukraine north of Luhansk and may looking to link up with Western MD grouping forces. Other areas seem pretty static.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1501172460238123014

https://twitter.com/user/status/1501248183393034245

Larger map

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...ion_of_Ukraine

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Cappy

My counter:

1. Russia gets the #### out of Ukraine

2. Ukraine can do whatever it wants as an independent nation.

That would be ideal, but a peace deal could eventually be negotiated without Ukraine being the only party negotiating with Russia. In fact, they could end up being a third party between NATO and Russia deciding what it best. That is the curse of being a relatively small power caught between two superpowers.

If NATO decides that excluding Ukraine from the alliance is a bargaining chip to avoid an escalation, then Ukraine's will as an independent country to join the alliance isn't their chip to throw.

I'm with you though, I definitely hope that Russia leaves with nothing. In reality, I think they have invested too much into this to leave empty handed and they will escalate things horrifically to other countries if they don't get some kind of gains. If that happens, NATO will try to pressure some kind of settlement.

[Swift]

Originally Posted by karl262

Just get this car, flag built in

Speaking of...

Spoiler!

[Duruss]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Think it's stuck in the mud yet?

[White Out 403]

times like this I wish my Dido was still alive. He was a small town soccer star from his village, I forget which, closer to the North/West border of Ukraine. I would love to pick his brain about his childhood and what he would think about all this, a peace settlement, all of it. I've lost almost all contact and familiar relation to Ukraine. In no small part from Soviet caused diaspora and then the Nazis coming in and throwing people in to forced labour, like my Baba

[calculoso]

NATO chief warns Russia away from attacking supply lines supporting Ukraine

Stoltenberg says 'any attack against any ... NATO territory' would trigger self-defence clause

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukr...nato-1.6377675

Jens Stoltenberg made the remarks Tuesday in an interview#with CBC News as he, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the leaders of Spain and Latvia visited NATO's base and training range at Adazi,#outside Latvia's capital Riga.

"The allies are helping Ukraine uphold their right for self defence, which is enshrined in the UN charter," Stoltenberg said after a meeting with Trudeau, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krišjānis Kariņš at the Adazi base.

"Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is defending itself. If there is any attack against any NATO country, NATO territory, that will trigger Article 5."

…

"I'm absolutely convinced President Putin knows this and we are removing any room for miscalculation, misunderstanding about our commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory,"#Stoltenberg said.

[bob-loblaw]

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

The story I read said they would also be continuing to pay 62,000 employees, maybe a Big Mac is on my lunch menu this week.

https://stocks.apple.com/Apsh42Bo-Q4a90F83DSOLsQ

They will have to pay them in Big Macs because it will be a long time before they can afford one.

[nik-]

That spur creeping down to the west of Kyiv is definitely not comforting.

[wwkayaker]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1501356012024041474

[SebC]

I would suggest a deal where Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea all get internationally-supervised referendums to determine their future.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by you&me

The key to a good negotiation is finding something the other side will say yes to, usually as quickly as possible (time kills deals)... While your counter would be ideal, there's zero change of Putin saying yes to it in anytime in the near future - he'll just keep bombarding Ukrainian cities, civilians and sending his troops to the meat grinder... or escalates and things get even worse.

Practically speaking, the territories are all but lost officially, so acknowledging that means very little.

There is no point in making a bad deal to make a deal and set a precedent for future issues down the road.

We all do not know that actual status on the ground, but time is not on Russia's side it appears and a meat grinder likely works in Ukriane's favour as opposed to Putin's.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by SebC

I would suggest a deal where Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea all get internationally-supervised referendums to determine their future.

Yep. Let the people vote how they want it and have both sides agree to respect the outcome. But it has to be run by the U.N. and observed/monitored like a lab microscope.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by SebC

I would suggest a deal where Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea all get internationally-supervised referendums to determine their future.

If that got everyone off the ledge that's not a bad idea. Keep them coming seb!