2016 NHL Draft

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I don't believe anyone in this thread is arguing anything otherwise, myself included. But FDW has been intent on responding to all discussion of Nylander and Keller as if simply discussing them is blasphemous. It gets grating. Especially when he makes sweeping accusations like "you are just biased towards smaller skilled players because you have (six-foot tall) Jost ahead of Tkachuk

It's not blasphemy, we're discussing them and I love the discussion. I just don't believe the Flames will have those kids top 7 under this current regime. Under Feaster they may very well have. And if we didn't have Gaudreau and already had drafted some big, skilled wingers then drafting for pure skill would make sense and these kids might be higher on our list.

As for Tkachuk you do seem to have a blind spot where he's concerned. He was top 5 on 9 out of 10 scout's lists that Mackenzie talked to. The consensus is he's one of the best forwards after the big 3. His production in the OHL playoffs is insane for his age, just insane. Benning says he has 1st line upside. Other scouts call him a gamebreaker. And then there's you talking about him as if he was a 3rd line grinder. Something doesn't add up one bit with your opinion on Tkachuk. It's bizarre frankly. I can't explain it. Maybe you don't overrate small players but you clearly and obviously underrate Tkachuk if you have him at 11. Did you see the highlights of his from last night while he was playing on one leg? Unbelievable performance.

[VladtheImpaler]

Benn was a 5th rounder or was it 4th.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

And then there's you talking about him as if he was a 3rd line grinder. Something doesn't add up one bit with your opinion on Tkachuk. It's bizarre frankly. I can't explain it. Maybe you don't overrate small players but you clearly and obviously underrate Tkachuk if you have him at 11.

Just because I "have him at 11" does not mean I think he's a 3rd line grinder.

I see these players as:

Franchise players
1)Laine
2)Matthews

Top 6/Top Pair Line drivers
3)Puljujarvi
4)Dubois
5)Keller
6)Sergachyev
7)Brown

More Sketchy Top 6/Top Pair Line Drivers
8)Jost
9)Rubtsov
10)Fabbro

Complimentary top 6 forwards/top 3 Defenseman
11)Tkachuk
12)Nylander
13)Chychrun
14)Juolevi
15)Bean

I'm not interested in a complimentary top 6 forward (A Jiri Hudler, Andrew Ladd or Brandon Saad tier player) over a line driver (A Marian Hossa, Tyler Johnson, Ryan Johansen tier player).

If I had to outline the player I'd ideally like to add, it would be Marian Hossa. Size, Skill, Motor, everything. So to accuse me of favoring smaller players is ridiculous. I just have little interest in what I've seen of Tkachuk. Even his highlight reel goals are incredibly ordinary straight line drives, stuff that doesn't work in the NHL unless you've got a monstrous Lucic frame (he doesn't).

[oldschoolcalgary]

benn was shockingly late...5th round. Which is surprising because of his size... obviously he kept improving from the point at which he was drafted...

i just watched more of Brown's film, and honestly, i see a kid that's a pretty good skater, great net drive, looks to have a good wrist shot that he can get off pretty quickly... but i don't see much creativity... a good portion of his goals were him hoovering pucks around the net... for me, if the kid was 6'2" he would even be being discussed at 6...

of course, i am not a scout either... here's his film for those interested

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzbD_ywcZb0

edit having embed issues... or i am too dumb

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

benn was shockingly late...5th round. Which is surprising because of his size... obviously he kept improving from the point at which he ...

OT, I am still mad at DS about Benn. Given all the useless big plugs he drafted, this is the one he had to pass on. And this one was even a Western boy.

[Bourque's Twin]

Keller reminds me a lot of Gaudreau. Something seems to always happen when he has the puck. It would sure be nice to have the top 2 LW's on the Flames being incredible playmakers. They could also drive 2 PP units.

Nonetheless, it seems unanimous that Nylander is a better player. I'd be satisfied with him. Brown I think is risky but if he can become more explosive, he would be an impact player.

[Funkhouser]

Put me in the Keller kamp if tkachuk is gone
The USHL is very underrated these days, he looks like a game breaker

[Par]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Just because I "have him at 11" does not mean I think he's a 3rd line grinder.

I see these players as:

Franchise players
1)Laine
2)Matthews

Top 6/Top Pair Line drivers
3)Puljujarvi
4)Dubois
5)Keller
6)Sergachyev
7)Brown

More Sketchy Top 6/Top Pair Line Drivers
8)Jost
9)Rubtsov
10)Fabbro

Complimentary top 6 forwards
11)Tkachuk
12)Nylander

I'm not interested in a complimentary top 6 forward (A Jiri Hudler, Andrew Ladd or Brandon Saad tier player) over a line driver (A Marian Hossa, Tyler Johnson, Ryan Johansen tier player).

If I had to outline the player I'd ideally like to add, it would be Marian Hossa. Size, Skill, Motor, everything. So to accuse me of favoring smaller players is ridiculous. I just have little interest in what I've seen of Tkachuk. Even his highlight reel goals are incredibly ordinary straight line drives, stuff that doesn't work in the NHL unless you've got a monstrous Lucic frame (he doesn't).

You are using the term "franchise" too lightly, franchise players come every once a decade and that franchise this decade was McDavid. Lots of scouts, Brian Burke and others have said that there no franchise players in this years draft.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

don't really get this fixation that people have with size.... if Nylander or Keller (or joulevi for that matter) is the BPA at 6, the Flames should pick that player.

Back at home base where I can type a lot faster than on him and I've got a few more points I thought of.

BPA is subjective to the scouts/organization. It is influenced by philosophy on what is successful in the NHL and how to build a successful team. Therefore who the Flames think the BPA available at #6 is could be drastically different than who another organization thinks the BPA at #6 is.

Nylander is undoubtedly top 6 for some teams. And I'm guessing he's not top 8-10 for some others. Why is that? Some teams are going to prioritize skill above all else. Clearly some fans do as well. But other teams are going to value things like size and compete level as highly as skill. I believe the Flames are one of the teams that doesn't just rank our list based on pure skill but instead looks at players as a combination of size, skill, skating and character. Nylander and Keller would be top 5-6 in terms of pure skill. But Keller has less than ideal size and this will drop him for teams that do value size into the equation. This isn't to suggest that size is everything or the only thing that matters. But it does factor into the equation for the Flames I believe. Nylander meanwhile has average size, below avg strength (right now) and some have questioned his compete (I'm not saying it's a massive issue but it may be a question mark.) This may drop him lower on the list for some teams. Someone who has an A- on skill, A on skating, A on compete and A on size may be ahead of a guy who is A+ on skill but only C+ on size.

So who is BPA at #6 for the Flames? I'd look for players who possess a blend of skill, skating, size, hockey sense and compete. That is why I am skeptical the Flames will have Nylander/Keller that high. Hopefully that makes sense. It's not that the Flames have a fixation on size but at the same time you can't ignore that part of the equation because the Flames do factor it in to their decision making when debating and making their list.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Par

You are using the term "franchise" too lightly, franchise players come every once a decade and that franchise this decade was McDavid. Lots of scouts, Brian Burke and others have said that there no franchise players in this years draft.

You are thinking of generational and not franchise. There are usually 1 or 2 franchise players per draft.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

If Brown was the total package like some here think he is he would be ranked #1.

I'm not even that big a proponent of Brown but I think he has to be in the conversation at #6 because his upside is so massive. Could he be in the Flames top 6? It's a possibility. Could he be outside the top 10 or 12 for the Flames? Also a possibility. He's a real wildcard.

Brown disappointed for half the year. He let the scouts down. In the 2nd half he turned his game around, started shooting more and showed flashes of dominance. Scouts are going to interpret that different ways. For some scouts (like Button) his impressive 2nd half and U18s completely erases the concerns of the first half. For other scouts it won't. That difference by itself could mean the difference between having him 5th on your list or 15th.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Par

You are using the term "franchise" too lightly, franchise players come every once a decade and that franchise this decade was McDavid. Lots of scouts, Brian Burke and others have said that there no franchise players in this years draft.

You're confusing the "Generational" label with Franchise. There are 30 franchises. That should mean there's upwards potential of ~30 Franchise players, and probably more since some teams are going to have multiple franchise players at different key positions (Franchise Center + Franchise Dman + Carey Price)

In the past we had Kipprusoff and Iginla, they were our franchise players. The Kings have Doughty and Kopitar, the Hawks have Keith/Kane/Toews.

[Par]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

You're confusing the "Generational" label with Franchise. There are 30 franchises. That should mean there's upwards potential of ~30 Franchise players, and probably more since some teams are going to have multiple franchise players at different key positions (Franchise Center + Franchise Dman + Carey Price)

In the past we had Kipprusoff and Iginla, they were our franchise players.

I got you now, sorry for the confusion.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

It's a fact that Keller outperformed Kane at the same age (well, 3½ months older) in the same league. That's the only fact that exists.

Anything else is speculation and opinion. That fact doesn't mean he'll ever win an Art Ross, it doesn't mean he'll develop into the most clutch playoff performer since Sakic, none of that. Keller isn't Kane. Keller isn't Gaudreau. Keller isn't Giroux. But he's extremely skilled kid that has outperformed Kane (and Eichel, Kessel, Tkachuk) at ostensibly the same age. As a prospect he has Kane type upside. Being ranked a little bit lower does not mean the upside is less than Kane. That would be true of Marner last year too.

So you're saying his numbers are better than Kane's? That doesn't mean he has to be as highly regarded as a prospect. You're a smart guy I'm sure you know their numbers as 17 year olds don't necessarily correlate to how well they'll do in the NHL a few years later. There's a lot more to scouting than just looking at the numbers. So Keller outperforming Kane, Eichel, Kessel, Tkachuk, etc doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Scouts aren't basing their lists off the top scorers, they are watching the players, watching their skillsets, and projecting them. I know that you know that. Kane is more purely skilled than Keller and scouts projected him to be more of an impact player than they project Keller to be. Thus the difference in their rankings.

As for USNDTP it is highly, highly scouted and its not an inferior level of competition. It's not the BCHL, it's not that hard to project.

[Mass_nerder]

If tkatchuk/dubois are gone, I'm really starting to hope for Keller. At a certain point, skill level can overcome size, and it looks like keller might be at that point.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I'm not interested in a complimentary top 6 forward (A Jiri Hudler, Andrew Ladd or Brandon Saad tier player) over a line driver (A Marian Hossa, Tyler Johnson, Ryan Johansen tier player).

If I had to outline the player I'd ideally like to add, it would be Marian Hossa. Size, Skill, Motor, everything. So to accuse me of favoring smaller players is ridiculous. I just have little interest in what I've seen of Tkachuk. Even his highlight reel goals are incredibly ordinary straight line drives, stuff that doesn't work in the NHL unless you've got a monstrous Lucic frame (he doesn't).

I struggle with some of your definitions and word usage. I'm not sure how many teams would take Johnson over Saad given the choice of the two. Saad has game breaking speed, nice size, 30 goal scorer. Who wouldn't want him? How is he a complimentary player? And how are Dubois and Puljujarvi questionable as game breakers but Keller is a game breaker? I don't understand that distinction at all. Puljujarvi has game breaking speed, playmaking and shooting. His puck handling isn't as good as Nylander/Keller's but overall he's a much, much more attractive prospect.

Saad - 1st line winger with speed, size and skill
Hudler - 2nd line winger with skill and hockey sense who had one crazy year with Gaudreau/Monahan but who lacks size and skating and seems to be on the decline because of that and his advancing age
Ladd - 1st line complimentary power forward (we seem to agree more on him)
Hossa - 1st line winger with all the tools (Puljujarvi is like a much bigger Hossa IMO)
Johansen - 1st line centre in skill, but his foot speed could be better and he struggles with work ethic at times. I wouldn't call him a consistent driving player although he definitely drives the offence when he wants to
Johnson - ideal 2nd line centre but can be your 1st liner in a pinch. Definitely drives play with his speed and tenacity

I guess we just don't see players quite the same in general.

Tkachuk I see as definitely a driving player. He doesn't drive a line through pure skill but he drives a line through compete, work ethic, puck protection, crashing the net, all combined with a very high but not flashy skill level. I see Tkachuk as a Corey Perry type. Pain in the butt to play against, great on the cycle, owns the area around the net, hyper determined around the net and can score and set up plays. I call him a complimentary player because I see powerforwards as being able to compliment any centre/winger combo. But I also see him as a driving force on his line through his compete level and determination. IMO he'll be much more a driver than Andrew Ladd is because I think he's more tenacious, more determined.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Some of the latest discussion on size vs skill is kind of funny. If Mathews, Laine and Puljujarvi were all sub 5'10" players, none of them would be ranked in the top 10. It is because of their RARE combination of size + skill that they are so sought after this draft.

Look at that top 5 - all are above 6 feet, and all have some physical element to their game. That isn't just a coincidence.

What does a scout really do? Just give his recommendation on who the very best player is at 17/18? Or do they give their very best recommendation on who they think will translate the best into the NHL? I would say it is the latter.

Every team wants a game-breaker. There is absolutely no question about that. Every team wants a franchise cornerstone piece to build around or to compliment their already existing core. That is the point of finishing really high in the draft - award the very best potential of players (also known as a prospect) to the worst teams in the NHL.

Every prospect is really nothing more than just potential at this point. Years of scouting and experience in developing these prospects leads scouts to give their recommendations on who they think will end up becoming the most important players tomorrow. Know why big players with skill end up so highly ranked, and often taken earlier? Because they not only have a better chance of translating, but they also have a better chance at being more dynamic.

When I say dynamic, I don't just mean 'shifty' like Gaudreau is. I mean someone that can benefit the team in more than just one way. I like Keller - I think he is this little tenacious bulldog with a high skill level. I think he is a bit more 'dynamic' than Nylander, for instance, because Nylander (imo) just possesses really good offensive skills - i.e. pure goals and assists. Keller provides those plus a better 'puck possession' aspect to his game because he pursues the puck so well and anticipates so well.

Enter Brown. He can do what Nylander does - goals and assists. He can also anticipate fairly well, and with his exceptionally long reach, he can disrupt the other team's offence. What else does he add? 2 things - he is physically more able to help the cycle or help disrupt the opposing team's cycle. He is also a big body that is hard to move, and becomes very tiresome in doing so - this last point becomes the most important during 7 game series. Often the least worn-out team advances. Flames lost game 7 (though it should have been over in game 6 of course) because they simply ran out of gas and had injuries.

This is what makes prospects who are above 6 feet and talented very attractive to organizations. They can 'fit' better.

Hockey IQ is very important too - it will allow prospects to figure out their own little niche on the team and contribute. A big body with high IQ is better able to find his niche and contribute positively on lower lines than a smaller body could - teams don't want a 'Gaudreau' who hasn't figured out how to score/contribute offensively yet on the 4th line, for instance.

It is really rare to find top 6 forwards that have a lot of size and skill outside of the first round. Those with an exceptional combination of both are termed 'lottery picks' and are regarded as franchise-level prospects. Don't let Par confuse you - a franchise player is not the same thing as a generational player. I would consider most of the core - Gaudreau, Brodie and Monahan especially - as 'Franchise-level' players.

At any rate, if Gaudreau was 6'4", he would not be the same player as he is now. He may or may not have been as effective. He wouldn't be this elusive. I can't say that if Keller was 6'5", that he would be in the top 3 picks. He would be a vastly different player.

Point is, that as an organization they have to figure out what the most likely prospect available in the draft at where they pick will go on to have the best career, and/or slot into their team the best. I would imagine based on everything that Burke and Treliving have stated, they will prefer a player with size.

Flames don't 'need' to draft a Nylander or Keller because they can be more offensive. They didn't lose out to Anaheim last year because they weren't talented enough offensively - they were very high in the rankings with respect to goal scoring for the last 2 years.

What they need is a more dynamic lineup that will allow them to play differently as needed. Brown fits that much more than Nylander or Keller, and thus why the Flames probably favor him more.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

So you're saying his numbers are better than Kane's? That doesn't mean he has to be as highly regarded as a prospect. You're a smart guy I'm sure you know their numbers as 17 year olds don't necessarily correlate to how well they'll do in the NHL a few years later.

No, it doesn't. But they're not something to ignore. Elite (and they are Elite) numbers at young ages like this are very good indicators of future success

There's a lot more to scouting than just looking at the numbers.

And yet sometimes scouts can be guilty of ignoring the obviously elite numbers altogether. Just "looking at the numbers" gets you Anthony Duclair instead of Keegan Kanzig, or Damon Severson instead of Pat Sieloff. Or Rasmus Andersson instead of Jakub Zboril. Or Kyle Connor instead of Zachary Senyshyn.

Numbers aren't everything but when they are elite, they are absolutely something.

So Keller outperforming Kane, Eichel, Kessel, Tkachuk, etc doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme of things.

Uh, yes it does. It means he is an exceptional talent. It doesn't mean he's better than Eichel or Kane or Tkachuk. But it means that he's producing better than them at this point in his development.

And it's not just a matter of the numbers in isolation, he is by far their top scoring. It's not a matter of being part of a balanced line. He is the line.

Kane is more purely skilled than Keller and scouts projected him to be more of an impact player than they project Keller to be.

Was he? Was 17 year old Kane "more purely skilled"? Do you have proof of this? Kane when he was Keller's age had never even played a game in the OHL. ON CSS' preliminary rankings in 2006, Patrick Kane was not even the top ranked OHL player:

https://img.yumpu.com/29428893/1/716...chl-nhlcom.jpg

Yes, Sam Gagner and Logan Couture were considered better prospects than Patrick Kane when Patrick Kane was Keller's current age (17 going on 18). And check it out, Kane's listed at 5'9.25" and 162lbs when he was Keller's current age.

Who can you name who was drafted in the first round directly out of USNTDP that actually make sense where they were drafted?

I suppose James Van Riemsdyk, and Jacob Trouba.

Then you got guys who were drafted way too late relative to actual talent, like Larkin, Shattenkirk, Faulk, Zucker, Palmieri, and Colin White.

The majority of USNTDP Alumni? They were not drafted as 17 year olds. They build their stock in what would be Keller's Draft+1 year:

Kessel was 17 in USNTDP, and then drafted as an 18 year old out of NCAA
Kane was 17 in USNTDP, and then drafted as an 18 year old out of OHL
Eichel was 17 in USNTDP and then drafted as an 18 year old out of NCAA
Matthews was 17 in USNTDP, and will be drafted as an 18 year old out of NLA
Tkachuk was 17 in USNTDP(while playing on a line with this year's 1st overall pick), and will be drafted as an 18 year old out of OHL (while playing on a line with last year's 4th overall pick).
Fowler was 17 in USNTDP and then drafted as an 18 year old out of NCAA
Hanifin was 17 in USNTDP and then drafted as an 18 year old out of NCAA
Saad was 17 in USNTDP, and then drafted as an 18 year old out of OHL
Jones was 17 in USNTDP, and then drafted as an 18 year old out of WHL

So the USNTDP is building history of producing top end talent, but historically those players' birth dates did not line up with the NHL draft and they had to be drafted as 18 year olds, and were 19 year olds as rookies. Eichel and Matthews probably don't see much change in their draft position because they are franchise talents, but the rest of these guys all had the benefit of being older CHLers or NCAAers.

Keller's production is right up there withthe most elite among these players, the difference is his birth date makes him unusually draft eligible. I believe that the same effect that caused Larkin to be drafted 15th when he's clearly a top talent from his draft class is very real.

As for USNDTP it is highly, highly scouted and its not an inferior level of competition. It's not the BCHL, it's not that hard to project.

USNTDP is a very random level of competition. They play games against Junior A quality opponents in the NAHL, they play games against Junior quality opponents in the USHL, they play games against NCAA Div One Tournament opponents, they play international tournaments. A scout who watched Keller against a Div 1 team may have a different opinion from a scout who watched Keller against an NAHL team even if he destroyed both opponents the same way.

[Da_Chief]

Keller is not as small as Gaudreau. He's listed at 5'10" 170 lbs. Not a biggie.

Other similar to his size who were top 10 picks recently:

Mitch Marner - 5'10 164 lbs - 4th in 2015
William Nylander - 5'11 174 lbs - 8th in 2014
Nikolaj Ehlers - 5'11 165 lbs - 9th in 2014

All are expected to top line players. One thing to point out is there are more similar sized players taken in the 10-20 range (Merkley, Barzal, Debruk, Konecny etc). Also there seems to be a bigger push in ignoring the size, we as Flames fan should know that better then anyone else with Theo, St.Louis, Gaudreau all getting their starts with the Flames.

Gaudreau-Bennett-??
Keller-Monahan-??

Seems high end to me in few years.

[Erratik]

I have to admit, I was in the Brown camp but the more I see and read about Keller I am being swayed. If his skill level is the highest outside the top 3, then I think we should go for it. He is 5'10 at 17 yrs old, so he isn't tiny and he might still grow a bit.