US Airstrikes on Venezuela (Maduro captured).

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I did a little bit of work with an engineer from Venezuela a few years back that used to work there and I recall him telling me about the issues kick starting their O&G industry if it were to happen. From what I recall there has been a significant rust out of assets since they nationalized the industry, and a major brain drain. So Trumps statement of "up and running in 18 months" is absurd when you take into account the amount of time and money needed to bring it back to life (likely 10 years and billions of dollars).

So with oil hovering around $60 and factoring the heavy crude discount, along with the still uncertain political environment (keeping in mind their industry is still nationalized), it's no wonder large producers aren't lining up to take it on. It's a MASSIVE undertaking.

It's a pretty good Epstein distraction though.

The thing that is kind of in the back of my mind is that Trump is saying that the oil companies are going to go in there and spend money to get their oil industry working again, but can he actually force them to? Did he even talk to them before this?

I get that if things work out, the oil companies can make a killing by investing there, but it still seems really risky with no real regime change and no guarantee that they just won't nationalize it again in the future. The next Chavez or Maduro could just say thanks, and take it again and the whole gunpoint diplomacy has to repeat.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Found this interesting

https://twitter.com/user/status/2008280244105380254


Not saying I support (or don’t support) the actions of the US. Just found it to be an interesting commentary is all.

For sure Venezuela is a mess, no one is really denying that. The regime really abused the government owned grocery stores and food distribution to force support and compliance of the population. The thing is, it's still the same regime in charge now and Trump didn't say it was a priority to fix this. It seems that they are happy to keep the status quo as long as the natural resources flow out. Call me jaded, but it's doubtful to me that Venezuelans at the street level will see any increased wealth from this.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The thing that is kind of in the back of my mind is that Trump is saying that the oil companies are going to go in there and spend money to get their oil industry working again, but can he actually force them to? Did he even talk to them before this?

I get that if things work out, the oil companies can make a killing by investing there, but it still seems really risky with no real regime change and no guarantee that they just won't nationalize it again in the future. The next Chavez or Maduro could just say thanks, and take it again and the whole gunpoint diplomacy has to repeat.

Nobody can force oil companies to go anywhere, and that’s not how this would work. These are shareholder-owned businesses, not NOCs, and they won’t spend real money unless the risk-adjusted returns make sense. What’s happening now isn’t coercion, it’s probing. Governments absolutely talk to companies quietly beforehand to ask “under what conditions would you come back,” and the answers are always the same: security, enforceable contracts, and confidence the rules won’t flip again in five years. Until those things are in place, capital stays on the sidelines. The nationalization risk you’re pointing out is exactly why companies aren’t rushing in, and why any initial production bump would come from operational fixes, not massive new investment. Big money only shows up if the legal and political structure changes in a durable way; if it doesn’t, the oil stays in the ground, regardless of what any politician says.

The part they are underestimating right now is the security side as I already mentioned. Right now there are foreign armed groups operating in the country, including Russian Wagner elements and Hezbollah-linked militias, and that is a non-starter for serious investment. Boards care less about political headlines and more about whether people and assets can be protected day-to-day. Until those groups are gone and there are credible security guarantees on the ground, even the most attractive contracts won’t unlock large-scale capital.

[indes]

The "plan" will work as well as Iraq did. I doubt the Venezuelans will be lining up in the streets and cheering for American companies to roll in and start making cash off their resources. Will be interesting to see what happens over there now, as I don't see an "American friendly" government being very stable. Lot's of groups/people will lay claim to the rebuilding of the nation and its natural resource infrastructure and I don't think any of them will be keen to let go of the power/money.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Leondros

Nobody can force oil companies to go anywhere, and that’s not how this would work. These are shareholder-owned businesses, not NOCs, and they won’t spend real money unless the risk-adjusted returns make sense. What’s happening now isn’t coercion, it’s probing.

Trump seems to think it's a foregone conclusion. Trump said that the oil companies are going to go in and rebuild. His exact words were; "A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent and the oil companies will spend it". He also says that they may be reimbursed by the government or through revenues, but it sounds like he assumed that the oil companies would first go in and have to do the work, which sounds like more than just probing.

Governments absolutely talk to companies quietly beforehand to ask “under what conditions would you come back,” and the answers are always the same: security, enforceable contracts, and confidence the rules won’t flip again in five years.

The three biggest US oil companies – Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron – have not yet had any conversations with the administration about Maduro’s removal, Reuters reported. This contradicted Trump’s statements over the weekend that he had already held meetings with “all” the US oil companies, before and since Maduro was seized.

“Nobody in those three companies has had conversations with the White House about operating in Venezuela, pre-removal or post-removal to this point,” one of the sources told Reuters.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ela-investment

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Trump seems to think it's a foregone conclusion. Trump said that the oil companies are going to go in and rebuild. His exact words were; "A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent and the oil companies will spend it". He also says that they may be reimbursed by the government or through revenues, but it sounds like he assumed that the oil companies would first go in and have to do the work, which sounds like more than just probing.



The three biggest US oil companies – Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron – have not yet had any conversations with the administration about Maduro’s removal, Reuters reported. This contradicted Trump’s statements over the weekend that he had already held meetings with “all” the US oil companies, before and since Maduro was seized.

“Nobody in those three companies has had conversations with the White House about operating in Venezuela, pre-removal or post-removal to this point,” one of the sources told Reuters.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ela-investment

That’s classic Trump framing, but it doesn’t change how capital actually moves. He also framed that tariffs were being paid for by the foreign companies rather than importers/US consumers.

Oil companies don’t front billions because of a speech or a handshake. If there’s reimbursement, revenue backstops, or government support, that stuff gets nailed down before a dollar is spent, not after, and it’s written into contracts, guarantees, and probably law. Even if the administration is convinced this ends with rebuilding, the order still matters: security first, rules and contracts second, money last. Until those boxes are checked, Trump’s confidence is just political talk, not something an executive and board is going to sign off on.

RBC was at the National Petroleum Council meetings in Washington all said that investment would only occur with a stable operating and security environment.

[Fuzz]

There hasn't even been a war and rebuild yet. The US has literally zero control, and may as well be talking about any other country on Earth that they also have no control over. All they have today is a threat, and proof of ability to kidnap a foreign leader.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Muta

FYI, there is very little, to no, 'far left' in North America. This is a low-effort talking point from right-wing media and you're completely falling for it. Most people are centrist. The right, on the other hand, has fallen to their extreme side with such velocity in the last decade, that I suppose people like you call anything sane and sensible towards the centre 'far left' in comparison.

Minding your own business and believing everyone should have equal rights = FAR LEFT WOKEISM

[Leondros]

For anyone interested these are my notes from a number of different calls I've been in on the geopolitical side of Venezuela from some very in touch people:

On US drivers:
- Marco Rubio was described as a long-time Venezuela hawk who views Venezuela as an extension of US Cuba policy.
- A core objective is to weaken Cuba by ending Venezuela’s energy support and removing Cuban advisors.
- Trump’s motivation was framed around reasserting US influence in the Western Hemisphere, consistent with the December national security strategy.
- Chinese, Russian, and Iranian presence in Venezuela was described as incompatible with this hemispheric strategy.
- The administration is working through Delcy Rodriguez, described as vice president and energy minister, now positioned as head of state.
- Need to balance managing the hardliners in Venezuela that are still very much in control of Venezuela.
- Many learnings from the Iraq invasion and the impact on oil production. Disbanding the miliary and de-Baathification were both lessons on what not to do if you want to keep stability and investment coming in.
- The removal of Maduro and leaving the rest intact increases the likelihood of baseline stability
Installing Machado or another opposition leader would have required US boots on the ground and serious security stabilization on the US's part which it does not have the appetite for - hance this position

On Iran:
- Iran is looking at Venezuela and has a heighted fear of more strikes either from US or Israel
- An exit of Ali Khamenei would not be expected to have a material impact or be transformational due to the Revolutionary Guard stepping in to fill the void

On Asia:
- Chinese officials are very confident and direct on their confidence to be able to take Taiwan if diplomacy fails
- Certainly concern over the US action in its hemisphere as being a green light for China
- US has taken a lot of time the past few days to reassure its Pacific allies

On Canada:
- Very little near or even medium term risk for Canada
- Venezuela will have a hard time ramping up production - the declines happened over 2.5 decades and cannot just be reversed
- As I mentioned, a lot of guarantees need to happen to turn on the taps

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Leondros

That’s classic Trump framing, but it doesn’t change how capital actually moves. He also framed that tariffs were being paid for by the foreign companies rather than importers/US consumers.

Oil companies don’t front billions because of a speech or a handshake. If there’s reimbursement, revenue backstops, or government support, that stuff gets nailed down before a dollar is spent, not after, and it’s written into contracts, guarantees, and probably law. Even if the administration is convinced this ends with rebuilding, the order still matters: security first, rules and contracts second, money last. Until those boxes are checked, Trump’s confidence is just political talk, not something an executive and board is going to sign off on.

RBC was at the National Petroleum Council meetings in Washington all said that investment would only occur with a stable operating and security environment.

I guess in a normal country. In a fascist country, the private sector is required to conduct all it's pursuits in the name of national security and economic benefit to the state, and the state has ways of coercing you to do it. Either by installing party members and allies into the company power structure, creating benefits, or through punitive measures.

I guess we get to find out soon just how far along the U.S. is in its journey towards corporatism and fascism.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Ped

Minding your own business and believing everyone should have equal rights = FAR LEFT WOKEISM

That's what I find the most amusing.
They are such delicates.

[missdpuck]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Trump seems to think it's a foregone conclusion. Trump said that the oil companies are going to go in and rebuild. His exact words were; "A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent and the oil companies will spend it". He also says that they may be reimbursed by the government or through revenues, but it sounds like he assumed that the oil companies would first go in and have to do the work, which sounds like more than just probing.



The three biggest US oil companies – Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Chevron – have not yet had any conversations with the administration about Maduro’s removal, Reuters reported. This contradicted Trump’s statements over the weekend that he had already held meetings with “all” the US oil companies, before and since Maduro was seized.

“Nobody in those three companies has had conversations with the White House about operating in Venezuela, pre-removal or post-removal to this point,” one of the sources told Reuters.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ela-investment

Yep, he’s a lying sack of crap as usual.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Leondros

- Trump’s motivation was framed around reasserting US influence in the Western Hemisphere, consistent with the December national security strategy.

Totally agree with this point. The weaponization of the dollar and unilateral sanctions on those that disobey has opened the eyes of a lot of countries who have seen enough and have taken steps to protect their people from being the next victims. With their influence and power waning globally, I think America will refocus on the Americas. Which actually really sucks for us in Canada.

[puffnstuff]

During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.

Russia withdrew all of its personnel from Venezuela exactly 14 days before Trump's invasion. China didn't withdraw their personnel. Cuba didn't withdraw theirs. Just Russia.

It is almost as if someone called Putin to warn him what's up as part of a quid pro quo.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.

Russia withdrew all of its personnel from Venezuela exactly 14 days before Trump's invasion. China didn't withdraw their personnel. Cuba didn't withdraw theirs. Just Russia.

It is almost as if someone called Putin to warn him what's up as part of a quid pro quo.

By all reports Wagner and Russia are still very much there and operating. The history of the Venezuelan oil industry is very interesting and Russian policy in Venezuela was effectively outsourced to Rosneft, and specifically to its CEO Igor Sechin, who is by far one of the most influential and unusual figures in the global oil industry. Sechin’s background as a former intelligence officer and his long-standing focus on Latin America made Rosneft central to Russia’s presence in the Western Hemisphere.

Rosneft is deeply embedded inside the state owned oil company (PDVSA), including occupying multiple floors in PDVSA’s Caracas headquarters. Beyond financing, Rosneft has been an operational enabler, including providing diluents that PDVSA needs to move and export heavy crude.

It will be interesting to see if the US will insist that Russian entities, including Rosneft, be fully expelled from Venezuela as part of a post-Maduro framework. This as a much harder issue than simply removing Maduro, because Rosneft is intertwined with Venezuela’s oil operations, logistics, and financing.

It actually may be one of the largest variables and canaries in the coal mine to see what happens with Rosneft. Clarity on whether Rosneft is evicted, sidelined, or partially retained will be critical for companies assessing re-entry risk.

[Fuzz]

They'll probably partner with them. Trump and Russia are big on finding business arrangements. This would be another.

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I guess in a normal country. In a fascist country, the private sector is required to conduct all it's pursuits in the name of national security and economic benefit to the state, and the state has ways of coercing you to do it. Either by installing party members and allies into the company power structure, creating benefits, or through punitive measures.

I guess we get to find out soon just how far along the U.S. is in its journey towards corporatism and fascism.

Just to give you a sense of scale here - Energy Aspects, probably the gold standard of oil analysis assumes to raise production by just 500K BOPD in Venezuela (remember - they are about 800K BOPD right now, and started a 2.5 MBOPD at the start of the century), it would take 2 years and over $25B. For context that would be Chevron and Exxon investing 50% of their combined 2026 development capex for the next two years. Its just not going to happen. Their estimates to get back to their highs we are talking hundreds of billions.

[Drak]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.

Russia withdrew all of its personnel from Venezuela exactly 14 days before Trump's invasion. China didn't withdraw their personnel. Cuba didn't withdraw theirs. Just Russia.

It is almost as if someone called Putin to warn him what's up as part of a quid pro quo.

Would be nice if the MSM reminded everyone about this.

[troutman]

Carney should send the special ops to kidnap Trump and try him for war crimes.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by troutman

Carney should send the special ops to kidnap Trump and try him for war crimes.

Kidnap and try? I won't settle for anything less than brutality kill and parade through the streets!