The Eternal Playoff Optimism Thread - Page 17 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

TheIronMaiden · 03-17-2023, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by taxbuster

Well, if nothing else, last night's bump in Sin City has provided a bit of cheer for us. Hoping that there's more to cheer about soon! (I just .... can't ... cheer for a draft pick.)

Seeing as how this team will be 95% the same next year, it is good that they are building some confidence.

blankall · 03-17-2023, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Seeing as how this team will be 95% the same next year, it is good that they are building some confidence.

This season could have gone so much differently if the Flames weren't leading the league in post shots or Markstrom had found his game earlier.

I know it seems like the Flames can't buy a goal, but they're only 8th in the conference in goals for. An extra dozen goals puts them top 5.

The Flames are 7th in the conference for goals against, and Markstrom playing even remotely close to his average puts them top 2/3.

The Flames just need to make it in this year, and they can make some serious noise.

JackIsBack · 03-17-2023, 12:00 PM

I'd rather finish 23rd (or lower) then finish 9th in our Conference and out of the playoffs. That gives us at least 3% chance at Bedard and 3.3% chance at 2nd overall. (6.3% for 1 or 2)

Do you think Johnny and Columbus are tanking on purpose?

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

NegativeSpace · 03-17-2023, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JackIsBack

I'd rather finish 23rd (or lower) then finish 9th in our Conference and out of the playoffs. That gives us at least 3% chance at Bedard and 3.3% chance at 2nd overall.

Do you think Johnny and Columbus are tanking on purpose?

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

With all due respect, there are plenty of other threads that are talking about tanking. This thread is about playoff optimism.

CroFlames · 03-17-2023, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Pathways to 96 points

10-3-0, 9-2-2, 8-1-4 or 7-0-6

93 or 94 might be enough to do it. There might even be a bit of a cushion in your numbers.

I can't believe I'm allowing myself to believe.

7-2-4 (18 pts) could do it.

SuperMatt18 · 03-17-2023, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blankall

This season could have gone so much differently if the Flames weren't leading the league in post shots or Markstrom had found his game earlier.

I know it seems like the Flames can't buy a goal, but they're only 8th in the conference in goals for. An extra dozen goals puts them top 5.

The Flames are 7th in the conference for goals against, and Markstrom playing even remotely close to his average puts them top 2/3.

The Flames just need to make it in this year, and they can make some serious noise.

It's remarkable that they are as close as they are with the 32nd PDO in the league.

Looking back through data this morning and it's super rare to see the team ranked last in the league in PDO not be a bottom 5 team.

07-08: Tampa - 30th PDO - 30th OV
08-09: Colorado - 30th PDO - 28th OV
09-10: Toronto - 30th PDO - 29th OV
10-11: New Jersey - 30th PDO - 24th OV
11-12: Columbus - 30th PDO - 30th OV
12-13: Florida - 30th PDO - 30th OV
13-14: Florida - 30th PDO - 29th OV
14-15: Arizona - 30th PDO - 29th OV
15-16: Toronto - 30th PDO - 30th OV
16-17: Colorado - 30th PDO - 30th OV
17-18: Buffalo - 31st PDO - 31st OV
18-19: Buffalo - 31st PDO - 27th OV
19-20: Detroit - 31st PDO - 31st OV
20-21: Philly - 31st PDO - 19th OV
21-22: Seattle - 32nd PDO - 30th OV

22-23: Calgary - 32nd PDO - 18th OV

So no team since this is tracked on NST has made the playoffs while ranking last in PDO. Philly was the closest in 20-21 and that was a 56 game season.

Generally it means you get a top 5 pick.

If the flames were shooting 9.3%, and had a .900 save percentage (both of which are still below average) they would have a 33 goal swing, and probably are 1st in the division easily.

Enoch Root · 03-17-2023, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Would you please keep doing this update to ease my mind? Thanks in advance.

I will as long as the Flames keep getting points and the Jets keep losing them

blankall · 03-17-2023, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CroFlames

93 or 94 might be enough to do it. There might even be a bit of a cushion in your numbers.

I can't believe I'm allowing myself to believe.

7-2-4 (18 pts) could do it.

With the way the Jets are playing and the Preds schedule, anything is possible. One more night like last night and the Flames are effectively 1 point back of a a playoff spot.

midniteowl · 03-17-2023, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I will as long as the Flames keep getting points and the Jets keep losing them

I'm hopeful that you'll have the chance to keep the update going.

topfiverecords · 03-17-2023, 02:19 PM

blankall · 03-17-2023, 04:19 PM

Another thing to note is that Nashville and Winnipeg play eachother 2 more times. So assuming, not 3 point games, it could mean the Flames have 2 fewer points to chase.

Mr.Coffee · 03-17-2023, 04:26 PM

I think Nashville is a problem and I still think the Kraken are in range. Calgary has a hope here but man we could be looking back at that Anaheim loss with huge regret. Still can’t believe they played so flat last Friday night, unbelievable.

If they make it, it will be one of the most nail biting finishes ever for the Flames which is in itself pretty fun. So I’m really hoping they make a good run of it here. Never know, with Markstrom returning to form they have the potential to.

Goriders · 03-17-2023, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I will as long as the Flames keep getting points and the Jets keep losing them

I think the team you have to worry about is Nashville and not Wpg.

Goriders · 03-17-2023, 04:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Preds definitely have the tougher schedule of the three.

Goriders · 03-17-2023, 04:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I think Nashville is a problem and I still think the Kraken are in range. Calgary has a hope here but man we could be looking back at that Anaheim loss with huge regret. Still can’t believe they played so flat last Friday night, unbelievable.

If they make it, it will be one of the most nail biting finishes ever for the Flames which is in itself pretty fun. So I’m really hoping they make a good run of it here. Never know, with Markstrom returning to form they have the potential to.

There are a number of games you could look back on. I’d say a minimum of 10.

But nothing they can do but look forward at this point.

TrentCrimmIndependent · 03-17-2023, 04:55 PM

Seattle's last 9 games are relatively easy

It's probably going to be Winnipeg's spot or nothing

I'm confident in the Preds dropping a good portion of their final schedule so I hope they beat the Jets in regulation

1qqaaz · 03-17-2023, 06:16 PM

MoneyPuck has Seattle at 95% for making the playoffs. Colorado 97%, Minnesota 98%, and Edmonton at 99%.
It's very likely that Seattle doesn't fall out. But between the four of these teams, the chances aren't nothing.

Weitz · 03-17-2023, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's remarkable that they are as close as they are with the 32nd PDO in the league.

Looking back through data this morning and it's super rare to see the team ranked last in the league in PDO not be a bottom 5 team.

07-08: Tampa - 30th PDO - 30th OV
08-09: Colorado - 30th PDO - 28th OV
09-10: Toronto - 30th PDO - 29th OV
10-11: New Jersey - 30th PDO - 24th OV
11-12: Columbus - 30th PDO - 30th OV
12-13: Florida - 30th PDO - 30th OV
13-14: Florida - 30th PDO - 29th OV
14-15: Arizona - 30th PDO - 29th OV
15-16: Toronto - 30th PDO - 30th OV
16-17: Colorado - 30th PDO - 30th OV
17-18: Buffalo - 31st PDO - 31st OV
18-19: Buffalo - 31st PDO - 27th OV
19-20: Detroit - 31st PDO - 31st OV
20-21: Philly - 31st PDO - 19th OV
21-22: Seattle - 32nd PDO - 30th OV

22-23: Calgary - 32nd PDO - 18th OV

So no team since this is tracked on NST has made the playoffs while ranking last in PDO. Philly was the closest in 20-21 and that was a 56 game season.

Generally it means you get a top 5 pick.

If the flames were shooting 9.3%, and had a .900 save percentage (both of which are still below average) they would have a 33 goal swing, and probably are 1st in the division easily.

PDO is a dumb stat. There’s a reason you never see it anymore. Yes if the flames were better they would have more points. Adding 2 totally uncorrelated stats doesn’t indicate anything.

Burning Beard · 03-17-2023, 10:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weitz

PDO is a dumb stat. There’s a reason you never see it anymore. Yes if the flames were better they would have more points. Adding 2 totally uncorrelated stats doesn’t indicate anything.

That would be like how 4 Art Ross trophies can still equal zero cups! Makes no sense!

blender · 03-17-2023, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Weitz

PDO is a dumb stat. There’s a reason you never see it anymore. Yes if the flames were better they would have more points. Adding 2 totally uncorrelated stats doesn’t indicate anything.

I've always felt similarly about PDO in that if you have a bad save percentage and a bad shooting percentage you are just a bad team. The way it was always correlated to luck never made sense to me. It is interesting, though to consider the outliers like the 22/23 Flames.