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Old 11-30-2021, 09:28 AM   #321
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I find it interesting when people bring up Ferland. Him getting ~20 G 40 pts on the top line with Gaudreau meanwhile being over a point per game and Monahan scoring 30 is a triumph, while I’m sure if Monahan got 20 G 40 pts in bottom 6 plus PP, coming off of major surgery, would be a disaster.

Ferland’s career year of 21 G top line is 1 short of Monahan’s 22 as a rookie, certainly not on a top line
I feel like I'm repeating a post I made in this exact thread only a page ago, but you are comparing a guy who threw up ~20g 20a almost exclusively 5v5 to a guy who is currently depending on PP1 points to account for the vast majority of his production.

Powerplay points and 5v5 points are not equal. Ryan Nugent Hopkins is PPG this year, and Andrew Mangiapane is not. The extent of your argument would imply the Nuge has been better than the Bread Eater.
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Old 11-30-2021, 09:36 AM   #322
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Actually Lucic isn't buy out proof, but earlier the savings didn't dictate any purpose for it.

This summer though there is a gain. If you buy out Lucic you save the team about $1.4M with a minor amount the year after.

I still wonder if he retires this summer though. He'll only have $1M of salary left after July 1st.
I don't think you can retire and keep the signing bonus for that year (pretty sure Friedman confirmed this)

I'm pretty sure contracts since 2012(?) aren't subject to recapture, but it would have been sweet to stick the Oilers with a 2M penalty if he did retire
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Old 11-30-2021, 09:45 AM   #323
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You can't just plug any one on a powerplay and have him produce.

Monahan leads the team with powerplay first assists with 4 on the season.

I hope his five on five game gets better.

But he's 27, has a history of production, just had a surgery, and only has one year left on his contract.

We're just repeating ourselves, but I think a team takes a chance with some salary retained; they may not need to retain any.

And a 40 year old comparison was pretty weak itself!
Maybe it was weak but I was trying to suggest what a declining player with a $6+ million price tag for one year was worth on the market.

Marleau was obviously in decline because of his age but she still had 16 goals in that last year.

Assuming Monhan finishes on his current pace of 8 goals, that would be a pretty clear trend line for last three years. Sure Monahan is younger but his injury history is real.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:14 AM   #324
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Actually Lucic isn't buy out proof, but earlier the savings didn't dictate any purpose for it.

This summer though there is a gain. If you buy out Lucic you save the team about $1.4M with a minor amount the year after.

I still wonder if he retires this summer though. He'll only have $1M of salary left after July 1st.
I don't think he retires. I think he's enjoying himself, having renewed success and IMO he will sign Thornton-like one year contracts after this one.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:27 AM   #325
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Monahan was very close to scoring on that shot. Jarry just got a bit of it. If you want to see a lame shootout attempt look at Tkachuk’s (and he’s usually very good as well). As for his last shootout goal? Probably Feb 2021.
They were both lame efforts, and Lindholm’s was a close third. But I couldn’t have told you what Tkachuk or Lindholm were going to do 30 seconds before they did it, so they’re better attempts than Monahan’s.

Who didn’t almost score, Jarry barely had to move, and tracked it from centre ice. He got so much of it that the rebound was nearly vertical.

He was also all over Tkachuk’s, who tried to get him in the exact same spot - low blocker. Jarry is actually giving away a large chunk of the glove side because it’s so hard to make the low blocker save. But Tkachuk doesn’t take advantage.

Johnny does, fortunately - perhaps because the last two shooters have Jarry thinking so hard about low blocker, but Gaudreau knew exactly where he was going with his shot.
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Old 11-30-2021, 10:47 AM   #326
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They were both lame efforts, and Lindholm’s was a close third. But I couldn’t have told you what Tkachuk or Lindholm were going to do 30 seconds before they did it, so they’re better attempts than Monahan’s.

Who didn’t almost score, Jarry barely had to move, and tracked it from centre ice. He got so much of it that the rebound was nearly vertical.

He was also all over Tkachuk’s, who tried to get him in the exact same spot - low blocker. Jarry is actually giving away a large chunk of the glove side because it’s so hard to make the low blocker save. But Tkachuk doesn’t take advantage.

Johnny does, fortunately - perhaps because the last two shooters have Jarry thinking so hard about low blocker, but Gaudreau knew exactly where he was going with his shot.
Watch again. Monahan's missed by about an inch from clearing the blocker. It was a lot like Fleury v Hasek at the Olympics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsLMH9MN2xw
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:03 AM   #327
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Watch again. Monahan's missed by about an inch from clearing the blocker. It was a lot like Fleury v Hasek at the Olympics. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsLMH9MN2xw
I watched it three times this morning while writing the last post; I stand by it. You can decide for yourself if this looks like a goalie who's at all confused about where this is going.



Again, if I knew what he was going to do, there's zero chance the professional goaltender didn't, which is evidenced by Jarry making a really difficult thing appear casual.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:09 AM   #328
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I watched it three times this morning while writing the last post; I stand by it. You can decide for yourself if this looks like a goalie who's at all confused about where this is going.

Again, if I knew what he was going to do, there's zero chance the professional goaltender didn't, which is evidenced by Jarry making a really difficult thing appear casual.
Jarry had that tracked all the way.

Monahan keeps going to that move/shot because it's a very difficult shot to stop. Only difference is he usually comes in with a little more speed and swings to his forehand a lot faster to find a gap.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:11 AM   #329
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There are people that think Monahan drove the bus on the old top line with Gaudreau? Really?
Do you not remember all the trade Johnny Gaudreau talk/threads? People were ready to drive him to the airport for all kinds of junk returns. This place actually had me convinced it was going to happen and we’d end up with Hall or Konecny or Forsberg or something. I actually had to take a break from this place just to get away from all the stupidity.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:19 AM   #330
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Actually Lucic isn't buy out proof, but earlier the savings didn't dictate any purpose for it.

This summer though there is a gain. If you buy out Lucic you save the team about $1.4M with a minor amount the year after.

I still wonder if he retires this summer though. He'll only have $1M of salary left after July 1st.
The problem is that we’d still have to replace his position with someone else. So the savings would be minimal at best. Dead cap or retention for any buyout is undesirable. Treliving is going to need every penny available to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane and Kylington.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:34 AM   #331
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Not to be too “dude I called it”, but as soon as I saw Monahan was shooting first, I said to my wife “he’s going swing wide out to the right, come in close, go low blocker and miss”.

Then I traced out his path to the net in the air, and then Monahan swung out wide right, went low blocker, and Jarry stopped him the way a 12-year old stops an 8-year old - easily.

Now, if I knew he was going to do that a full 30 seconds before he started his attempt, there’s no way Jarry didn’t.

Talk to a sports psychologist, eat some mushrooms, use a longer stick, just try some new things. What he’s doing is not working.

Figure it out.
Yet, in the past 4 seasons , Sean has 7 goals in 14 shootout opportunities. Fifty frigging percent.

Last season, he was 1/2.

He is 39.1 percent in his career.

Pretty amazing!

But even more impressive is your magical clairvoyance in sharing, with your wife, the details of his failed attempt.

She must have been so proud of you.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:48 AM   #332
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Yet, in the past 4 seasons , Sean has 7 goals in 14 shootout opportunities. Fifty frigging percent.

Last season, he was 1/2.

He is 39.1 percent in his career.

Pretty amazing!
Sean has been a very good shoot out player in his career.

I don't know where he will be going forward, as his skills have clearly eroded.
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:53 AM   #333
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Yet, in the past 4 seasons , Sean has 7 goals in 14 shootout opportunities. Fifty frigging percent.

Last season, he was 1/2.

He is 39.1 percent in his career.

Pretty amazing!

But even more impressive is your magical clairvoyance in sharing, with your wife, the details of his failed attempt.

She must have been so proud of you.
If I recall correctly he sometimes floats it glove side on the same approach.

Everyone watched game tape. It’s not about surprising the goalie for him, it’s about beating the goalie
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Old 11-30-2021, 11:59 AM   #334
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Despite his struggles this season, I really appreciated Sutter showing his encouragement to Monahan by making him the first shooter. That stuff goes a long way for a player's confidence even though he didn't score.
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:20 PM   #335
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If I recall correctly he sometimes floats it glove side on the same approach.

Everyone watched game tape. It’s not about surprising the goalie for him, it’s about beating the goalie
Yeah, I'm not saying Jarry doesn't suspect what he's going to try. I'm saying he didn't miss by much - he just caught the edge of the blocker. I bet most goalies know what he (or other common shooters) will likely do. Monahan goes left side consistently, and also consistently beats goalies with it.

Tkachuk shot from much farther out and at a lot lower velocity, right into the pads. It was a far worse attempt (and normally he's pretty crafty in the SO). Backlund also did what he almost always does. He just happened to score.
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:24 PM   #336
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Yet, in the past 4 seasons , Sean has 7 goals in 14 shootout opportunities. Fifty frigging percent.

Last season, he was 1/2.

He is 39.1 percent in his career.

Pretty amazing!

But even more impressive is your magical clairvoyance in sharing, with your wife, the details of his failed attempt.

She must have been so proud of you.
She wasn't paying attention, but if you'd been there you'dve been impressed.

No surprise Monahan has historically had success in the shootout - he used to be good.

Now he's predictable, lacking confidence and for reasons numerable and unknown, hasn't been able to escape a funk that goes back to Bill Peters.
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:28 PM   #337
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She wasn't paying attention, but if you'd been there you'dve been impressed.

No surprise Monahan has historically had success in the shootout - he used to be good.

Now he's predictable, lacking confidence and for reasons numerable and unknown, hasn't been able to escape a funk that goes back to Bill Peters.
You only got 2 of three elements right (he didn't miss).
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Old 11-30-2021, 12:37 PM   #338
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You only got 2 of three elements right (he didn't miss).
Miss = not score, but fair enough.
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:26 PM   #339
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Shootouts are now so rare that I barely care about who is good at the shootout.
Back in the day, it used to be a major asset of someone like Tanguay.

But now, with so few shootouts, it should be one of the last things on the mind of a GM who is trying to build a contenting team.

Even for 3 on 3 OT, it doesn't exist in the playoffs, so I don't know whether its worse building a roster with players who are good at 3 on 3 OT.
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Old 11-30-2021, 01:44 PM   #340
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I feel like I'm repeating a post I made in this exact thread only a page ago, but you are comparing a guy who threw up ~20g 20a almost exclusively 5v5 to a guy who is currently depending on PP1 points to account for the vast majority of his production.

Powerplay points and 5v5 points are not equal. Ryan Nugent Hopkins is PPG this year, and Andrew Mangiapane is not. The extent of your argument would imply the Nuge has been better than the Bread Eater.

No, you can’t distill my case down to ES vs PP time, and ignore line mates. That is silly, and I am sure you know it.

Ferland had his career year, getting 21/20 when playing with Gaudreau who was top 10 in both overall and ES scoring (60 pts)

Monahan is playing now with Trevor Lewis who had a career high 26 points when he was in his prime, 5 years ago.

Think about that. Trevor Lewis got 26 points playing with guys like Nick Shore, Kyle Clifford and Andy Andreoff. Tell me again how awesome Ferland is for getting 41 points, playing with Johnny and Monny.

And tell me you are surprised that Monahan is not getting ES points
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