[News] Hurricanes officially match Aho offer sheet (5 years x $8.454 million)

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I shouldn't listen to the guys who just matched the offer? Who should i listen too? Additionally, they now have their franchise C at a reasonable AAV, even if the bonuses weren't what they wanted. Sure they have to pay 21 M over the next year...but then they only have to fork out 21 over the following 4 years for a guy who is likely to be among the top point getters in the entire league.

If the rumors are to be believed, the Canes wanted an 8 year / $6.5M deal. They probably weren't looking to front load with a ton of lockout-proof bonuses, either. But I'm sure they're thrilled about having their hand forced here. If The Canes were offering Aho this kind of money he'd have signed with them already.

Originally Posted by transplant99

Which does what to help the Habs?

You only get better relative to your competition. If your competition has less cap space to work with relative to you, that's an advantage. If they're losing top talent earlier than planned, that's also an advantage. Sure it's an advantage other teams benefit from as well, but this is still very much a zero sum game given the cap system and finite availability of talent. If offer sheets were more common you'd see this game theory play out to it's fullest potential. If anything GMs collude against players in this regard.

[Yoho]

I think Canes match then give Aho the Shea Weber good bye a short while later

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by transplant99

A GM's job is to make his team better.

What did Bergevin do here to make his team better?

Bergevin isnt even likely to be the GM in 5 years...so again....what was the point?

He made Carolina worse, long term. That's a net gain for Montreal.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Again, the Canadiens were in direct competition with Carolina for one of the wildcard spots and just missed out on the playoffs.

By tying up 23.3M on Aho in the next calendar year (+ a day), the Hurricanes, a team historically not spending to the cap and more recently spending around 60M or so a year, do not have the monetary capital now to explore other short-term options to improve their team. With the teams presumably expected to be close in the standings again this year, Carolina's hit on a depth signing or two could be the difference between Montreal making the playoffs or not.

Yes, it will be advantageous to Carolina in years 4 and 5 of the deal when they'll be spending 6M on their number 1 center, but year 6 could be extremely detrimental if they lose him for nothing.

That is an assumption without merit. That Dundon may prefer not to spend that money now - which is also an assumption - does not equate to being unable to. This is a guy who just lit millions of dollars on fire trying to save the Alliance of American Football. He's not exactly short of capital.

Additionally, pointing to a nebulous and unprovable claim that Carolina will be unable to sign an unknown free agent as a tangible benefit to Montreal is... convenient. I could easily flip the script and argue that Montreal may have actively hurt themselves by by tying up this money and picks with a hopeless offer sheet. The theoretical player that they may not have been able to sign as a consequence becomes an equally nebulous and unprovable benefit to Carolina.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He made Carolina worse, long term. That's a net gain for Montreal.

So Montreal gains because Carolina might be worse five years from now?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

That is an assumption without merit. That Dundon may prefer not to spend that money now - which is also an assumption - does not equate to being unable to.

It's weird seeing as we're fans of a team that benefited from Carolina's reluctance to spend when we got Hanifin and Lindholm despite the team still having a ton of cap space.

Sure, maybe if Bobby Orr said he would come out of retirement the Hurricanes might be able to get Dundon to spend to (or beyond given Aho's cap to salary discrepency) the cap but I think it's safe to assume that a team that has been spending 50M-60M these last several years intended to spend around that amount. The idea that they would now be happy to spend 85M along with another 10M bonus on July 1, 2020 to Carolina isn't nebulous.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

That is an assumption without merit. That Dundon may prefer not to spend that money now - which is also an assumption - does not equate to being unable to. This is a guy who just lit millions of dollars on fire trying to save the Alliance of American Football. He's not exactly short of capital.

The bonus structure is just that: bonus. Doesn't change the fact that the Canes have ~$2M less cap for the next five seasons that they may have thought they ha the leverage to negotiate away from Aho. They also lost three UFA years they may have been able to negotiate with their #1 C.

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Additionally, pointing to a nebulous and unprovable claim that Carolina will be unable to sign an unknown free agent as a tangible benefit to Montreal is... convenient. I could easily flip the script and argue that Montreal may have actively hurt themselves by by tying up this money and picks with a hopeless offer sheet. The theoretical player that they may not have been able to sign as a consequence becomes an equally nebulous and unprovable benefit to Carolina.

There's nothing nebulous and unprovable about the salary cap and when a player becomes a UFA. Any leverage the Canes thought they had just evaporated. We'll see if they're able to retain Aho beyond this contract. Doubtful given their track record.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

So Montreal gains because Carolina might be worse five years from now?

Montreal gains because they made Carolina agree to a dollar amount and a term they didn't want to agree to. Aho is a UFA In 5 years now.

That's likely the new reality now, since the Matthews contract.

The premium UFA's used to only get high AAV after their ELC if they agreed to a long term contract, giving up UFA years.

Matthews and Aho got the dollars and got the term, Tkachuk has indicated he'd like to do the same. Calgary will be under some pressure now to give in, because the threat of an offer sheet is out there.

Paying premium RFA"s more dollars now and them hitting UFA earlie will help parity. Most of the top teams have dome very little to improve themselves; instead, most are just trying to solve their cap issues. The lower teams have taken advantage of that by improving. Chicago is an example of that.

With the best team getting worse, and the worse teams getting better (due partly to teams not being able to pay younger players less than before), you see more and more that bubble team make the playoffs and advance farther than expected.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Again, the Canadiens were in direct competition with Carolina for one of the wildcard spots and just missed out on the playoffs.

By tying up 23.3M on Aho in the next calendar year (+ a day), the Hurricanes, a team historically not spending to the cap and more recently spending around 60M or so a year, do not have the monetary capital now to explore other short-term options to improve their team. The poison pill contract the Habs offered Aho has taken Carolina out of the running for these secondary available UFAs that they would otherwise had the opportunity to sign. With the teams presumably expected to be close in the standings again this year, Carolina's hit on a depth signing or two could be the difference between Montreal making the playoffs or not.

Yes, it will be advantageous to Carolina in years 4 and 5 of the deal when they'll be spending 6M on their number 1 center, but year 6 could be extremely detrimental if they lose him for nothing.

OK using this line of thinking (which is ridiculous imo) then you would think this would be common practice every year for teams that were close, but more to the point on this one ...why would they go after Aho to hurt the Hurricanes that finished 3 points ahead of them but had all the room in the world to match, instead of going after a much more direct competitor in the Leafs who have real cap issues that are going to hand cuff them from signing anyone depth wise...and finished directly ahead of them in the same division by 4 pts?


Again this was a poorly thought out and executed offer. There was never a single chance this thing wasn't matched the way it was constructed.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

It's weird seeing as we're fans of a team that benefited from Carolina's reluctance to spend when we got Hanifin and Lindholm despite the team still having a ton of cap space.

Sure, maybe if Bobby Orr said he would come out of retirement the Hurricanes might be able to get Dundon to spend to (or beyond given Aho's cap to salary discrepency) the cap but I think it's safe to assume that a team that has been spending 50M-60M these last several years intended to spend around that amount. The idea that they would now be happy to spend 85M along with another 10M bonus on July 1, 2020 to Carolina isn't nebulous.

You're conflating cap hit with actual dollars.

The team might still choose to maintain a lower internal cap, knowing that the actual dollars for this year will be well above that cap, but also knowing that it will be much lower in future years.

[Flash Walken]

I've seen this several times now, that because dunson looks like he just wasted a ####load of money, that somehow makes him interested in burning a ####load more.

That's not really how financing works.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Montreal gains because they made Carolina agree to a dollar amount and a term they didn't want to agree to. Aho is a UFA In 5 years now.

I'm sorry, but trying to look into a crystal ball and predict what will happen five years from now to argue a gain for Montreal today is a rather desperate attempt at rationalization.

In fact, the remainder of your post argues toward Montreal harming themselves: normalizing the idea of RFAs getting shorter deals at bigger money on their second contracts is going to harm everyone. Including the Canadiens themselves.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by transplant99

OK using this line of thinking (which is ridiculous imo) then you would think this would be common practice every year for teams that were close, but more to the point on this one ...why would they go after Aho to hurt the Hurricanes that finished 3 points ahead of them but had all the room in the world to match, instead of going after a much more direct competitor in the Leafs who have real cap issues that are going to hand cuff them from signing anyone depth wise...and finished directly ahead of them in the same division by 4 pts?


Again this was a poorly thought out and executed offer. There was never a single chance this thing wasn't matched the way it was constructed.

Because the risk was negligible? And who's to say Bergevin doesn't have another offer sheet ready to go the moment the Canes' sign Aho? (presuming they do)

Could just be the Habs are going after the nearest competitor, which would be the Canes. Next up is the Leafs.

If I'm the NHLPA, I'm negotiating reducing the offer sheet penalties next lockout. Maybe eliminate them entirely. Make RFA first right of refusal only.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by cannon7

The bonus structure is just that: bonus. Doesn't change the fact that the Canes have ~$2M less cap for the next five seasons that they may have thought they ha the leverage to negotiate away from Aho. They also lost three UFA years they may have been able to negotiate with their #1 C.

First, I doubt they Canes thought they were going to get Aho at $6.45 million. But, even if we do, this has nothing at all to do with the argument that Montreal "gains" because Carolina is suddenly unable to spend additional money. They have neither a cap crunch nor an owner incapable of spending it.

There's nothing nebulous and unprovable about the salary cap and when a player becomes a UFA. Any leverage the Canes thought they had just evaporated. We'll see if they're able to retain Aho beyond this contract. Doubtful given their track record.

Certainly. But that is an entirely different argument from the claims that Montreal somehow gained as a result of this.

[Benched]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I've seen this several times now, that because dunson looks like he just wasted a ####load of money, that somehow makes him interested in burning a ####load more.

That's not really how financing works.

seems like that's how my finances work....

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

EW Contract Projections: 2019 has Bennett @ 3x2.8

a 3x4 offer sheet takes him to UFA and would cost a 2nd round pick.

Flames match and then all of the sudden they don't have cap space to match a 5x7.5 for Tkachuk.

Bennett at 4M would be an outstanding UFA acquisition.

This is terrifying.

[Yoho]

Let him walk for 4 mil per

[topfiverecords]

Dundon on Tuesday disputed that notion, saying, “I think the other team got manipulated into believing something that might not have been true.”

This quote and the talk that Montreal had some sort of intel that the bonus structure would be the poison, I've been wondering if that wasn't a genius strategy by Carolina leaking that false information that they were worried about max bonuses. That had a team try to structure the deal around a reasonable AAV and term with max bonus structure instead of thinking that it would take an unreasonable AAV to get the player.

[Poster]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Agree with that.

This is where teams should be leveraging offer sheets - on the mid tier RFAs of cap crunched teams.


Vancouver with Boeser

All of these teams prioritized other players in UFA / RFA and either need to keep space to sign another RFA or have limited space to match to keep the player.

For example the Canucks have only $7.7M in cap space now...if you are a team with some cap space to burn and in need of a goal scoring winger (Looks at the Sabres) then a 5 x $7.8M offer sheet for Boeser wouldn't be the worst and would only cost you a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd.

Boeser is not eligible for an offer sheet. Just for the record.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

You're conflating cap hit with actual dollars.

The team might still choose to maintain a lower internal cap, knowing that the actual dollars for this year will be well above that cap, but also knowing that it will be much lower in future years.

Uh, but that's the point entirely.

First off, Carolina doesn't care about the cap. They aren't and won't be close. So it's only actual dollars that matter to them.

Now, instead of paying Aho for the next 2 years, 8.5M spread out over this year and 8.5M spread out over next year, like they would have on a 'normal' 8.5M contract they are forced to pay him 12M today and another 11M come July 1, 2020. That's 23M in a calendar year instead of 17M over 2. Add on Marleau's signing bonus of 3M (which admittedly they willingly took) and the team will be spending at least 80M this year in actual money and an additional 10M come July 1st. That's 90M in 366 days for a team that has not spent anywhere near that. It's very likely that was not the plan going into the off-season, and almost certainly does handcuff them in offering other UFAs who could have been available because they've far exceeded their budget for the year. This isn't Toronto or New York, they had a (soft) budget in mind and that would have been thrown out the window with this contract. If Crosby was available tomorrow for Clark Bishop, sure they are going to make that trade 10 times out of 10 but a second tier UFA? Getting the ah-okay to exceed the yearly budget by 20M or so, that's a lot harder pill to swallow.

Now yes, they do 'save' in the future and that needs to be accounted for but just like any type of budget once you exceed it, it's a lot harder to get approval for the "nice-to-have" commodities.